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Joey's top five teams that are favorites and explains why they might win the 2025 NCAA Tournament. His favorite top picks to win in March Madness 2025.
The 2025 NCAA Tournament will officially start on Thursday, March 20, and end with the National Championship game on Monday, April 7. Over the next few days, everyone will rush to fill out their brackets. Although getting a perfect bracket is basically impossible (1 in 9.2 quintillion odds), winning your bracket group is likely your primary focus.
Whether you are competing against friends, family, co-workers, or even strangers, earning the most points in your bracket group could come with a prize and/or bragging rights. However, the only way you will probably win your bracket group is by picking the national champion correctly.
So, which five teams are the favorites to cut down the nets in San Antonio in April? You should pick one of these five teams to win your bracket pool. Let's dive in and find out who they are.
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Duke Blue Devils
The Duke Blue Devils are the current favorites to win the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Duke went 31-3 in the regular season and has won 27 of its last 28 games entering the tournament. The team's only loss over the last three and a half months came on February 5 against a very good Clemson Tigers team. The Blue Devils also won the Atlantic Coast Conference title after beating the Louisville Cardinals in the championship.
This Duke team is different than in recent years, and it has the talent to win it all. The Blue Devils are led by freshman phenom Cooper Flagg. Although Flagg missed the final two games of the ACC Tournament due to an ankle injury, the expectation is that he will be ready to go in the team's first-round game on Friday. The potential No. 1 overall pick averages 18.9 points and 7.5 rebounds this season.
It's going to be hard to pick against Duke as champions in your bracket. The team has been playing extremely well lately and ranks toward the top of the country in several categories. The Blue Devils rank third in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating on KenPom. In addition, they are 9-3 in Quad 1 games, with wins over Auburn, Arizona, and Illinois, while ranking fifth in the country in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.75).
Duke gets the job done and wins its 23rd ACC tourney championship 😈
The Blue Devils are the first team since 2018 to win both the ACC regular season and tournament championship 👏 pic.twitter.com/ed3GwTsQbp
— ESPN (@espn) March 16, 2025
The only draw against Duke is its lack of experience. The team starts with three freshmen (Flagg, Kon Knueppel, and Khaman Maluach), and that could hurt them against a more experienced team in the tournament. However, the Blue Devils have the talent to make a run to the Final Four and eventually win it all. They are currently the most-picked champion in ESPN brackets at 25.6%.
Florida Gators
The Florida Gators will enter the NCAA Tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country. They are coming off a Southeastern Conference (SEC) title and have won six straight games against tournament teams. Since March 1, Florida has beaten No. 14 Texas A&M, No. 5 Alabama (twice), Ole Miss, No. 21 Missouri, and No. 8 Tennessee.
Playing in a tough conference that will send a record 14 teams to the NCAA Tournament didn't prove to be a challenge for the Gators this season. They finished 30-4 overall and had some key wins against Alabama (twice), Tennessee (twice), and Auburn. Florida will now head to the tournament, ranking first in offensive rating and 10th in defensive rating on KemPom. Those two metrics could help them make a run.
I will say it again… if you are a TOP 10 TEAM, YOU DO NOT WANT US.
W vs #1 Tennessee
W at #1 Auburn
W at #7 Alabama
W vs #5 Alabama
W vs #8 TennesseeRacking em up. pic.twitter.com/CISAkaQa5n
— Florida Gators 🐊🔥 (@gatorsszn) March 17, 2025
Florida is led by All-SEC First Team guard Walter Clayton Jr. Clayton is averaging 17.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 4.3 assists this year, and he has come up big for the Gators in recent weeks. The senior guard has scored at least 22 points in four of the past five games. The Gators also have some experience on their roster, as three upperclassmen start for this team (Clayton, Will Richard, and Alijah Martin).
Now, the biggest weakness for Florida is making free throws. Despite ranking 89th in free throw attempts per game, the Gators make just 71.8% of their free throws (200th in the country). So, a close game could put them on upset watch. Nonetheless, given how they played recently, Florida is a safe pick to win it all. 20.7% of ESPN brackets have them cutting down the nets in April.
Auburn Tigers
The Auburn Tigers were the best team in college basketball for most of the year. They entered March with a 26-2 record, and their only losses came against Florida and Duke. However, Auburn is trending in the wrong direction. The Tigers have lost three of their past four games, and no team has won the national championship with this type of losing streak heading into the NCAA Tournament.
However, we should cut Auburn some slack, considering its three losses came against Texas A&M, Alabama, and Tennessee. Even with those recent losses, this team has shown it can turn it up at any moment. The Tigers went 28-5 in the regular season and had 16 Quad 1 wins (the most of any team in the country).
Auburn might also have more experience than any team in the field. Bruce Pearl's squad starts five seniors, and the most notable is potential Player of the Year Johni Broome. Broome is averaging 18.9 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game this season. His play has helped the Tigers rank second in offensive rating and 12th in defensive rating on KemPom.
The big weakness for Auburn, though, will be its recent play. The team has no momentum entering the tournament, and that is usually a recipe for disaster. Nevertheless, it's hard to remove what the Tigers have accomplished this year. They played the second-hardest schedule in the regular season and still went 16-5 in Quad 1 games. Auburn is the third-most-picked winner in ESPN brackets.
Houston Cougars
For the second straight year, the Houston Cougars dominated in the Big 12. They went 30-4 in the regular season and won the Big 12 Tournament over Arizona. Houston will also enter the NCAA Tournament with a ton of momentum, as it has won 26 of its last 27 games. The Cougars' only loss since December was an 82-81 overtime loss to the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
As a result, they should be a favorite to win the tournament in April. Houston ranks 10th in offensive rating and second in defensive rating on KemPom, and the team went 14-3 in Quad 1 wins this season. Some of its most noteworthy wins included Kansas (twice), Arizona (twice), Texas Tech, Iowa State, and BYU.
THE COUGARS ARE THE BIG 12 CHAMPS 🏆
For the first time ever, Houston claims the Big 12 title 🙌 #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/mTKbxzUe5E
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 16, 2025
The Cougars have what it takes to cut down the nets in a couple of weeks. They are a more experienced team with multiple players who can score the ball. Both LJ Cryer and J'Wan Roberts were selected to the All-Big 12 First Team, and Joseph Tugler was the conference's Defensive Player of the Year. With four players who average in double figures, Houston has enough scoring to make a run.
Now, the two biggest things to worry about with the Cougars are their low two-point field goal percentage and inability to get to the free throw line. Houston ranks 286th in two-point field goal percentage (49%) and 316th in free throw attempts per game (16.6). Those two could come into play later in the tournament. But with four upperclassmen starting and one of the best defenses in the country, this team has what it takes to win.
Tennessee Volunteers
At the fifth spot here, we could have gone with any of the No. 2 seeds in the tournament (Michigan State, Tennessee, Alabama, and St. John's). Even though Alabama has the best odds of any No. 2 seed to win it all on FanDuel, do not sleep on the Volunteers to make a run to the finals. They went 27-7 in the regular season and have won seven of their last nine games.
Tennessee always seems to come up short in the NCAA Tournament, but this year could be a different outcome. It has some strong wins against Louisville, Illinois, Florida, Auburn, and Missouri and has 11 Quad 1 wins this season. The Volunteers also rank 18th in offensive rating and third in defensive rating on KemPom.
This group is led by a pair of guards, Chaz Lanier and Zakai Zeigler. Zeigler made the All-SEC First Team behind his 13.8 points, 7.3 assists, and 1.9 steals per game in the regular season. Lainer made the All-SEC Second Team and averaged a team-high 17.7 points per game. These two senior guards are joined by three other seniors in the starting lineup (Jahmai Mashack, Jordan Gainey, and Igor Milicic Jr.).
Tennessee's defense and experience could easily carry them to a national title. However, if the Volunteers were not to win, their lack of two-point shooting could be a reason. Despite shooting 54.1% from inside the arch, they rank 298th in two-pointers attempted (32.8) per game this season.
More March Madness Analysis
