Second Half Fantasy Baseball Bust Candidates - Regression Candidates to Sell-High?

July 22, 2026

Andy analyzes fantasy baseball busts, fallers, fades for the second half of 2026. Are these hitters and pitchers fantasy baseball sell-highs to trade away?

During the first half of the season, managers saw many unexpected players not only emerge as top waiver-wire picks and late-round draft steals, but also exceed expectations in major ways.

However, even though they turned in a dominant first half, that doesn't mean they will maintain it going forward. Last summer, managers thought James Wood and Pete Crow-Armstrong were on a superstar trajectory but endured major growth pains down the stretch. Let's look to avoid that same disappointment and identify these candidates before their production plummets.

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Liam Hicks, C/1B, Miami Marlins

The second-year backup is in the running for "waiver wire pickup of the season." After posting a modest .247/.346/.346 slash line with six home runs and two stolen bases over his first 119 MLB contests. However, this season, Hicks has not only carved out an everyday role in the lineup, but emerged as a must-start player.

Through 88 games, the backstop has posted a strong .286/.360/.448 slash line with nine doubles, 13 home runs, two stolen bases, and an elite 32:32 K:BB.

However, while his surface-level statistics may suggest he should remain a strong four-category asset for the second half, his underlying marks suggest he could take a massive step back over the final months of the season.

Hicks has generated a modest 36th percentile .308 xwOBA with a low .250 xBA, which puts him in the 47th percentile. While a .250 AVG is not the worst outcome, it is a near 30-point drop from his current mark.

While his batting average is expected to drop, the concern in his profile lies within his power output. The Arkansas State product has generated a low .349 xSLG (in comparison to a .448 SLG) with a 13th percentile barrel rate (3.5%) and an 11th percentile hard-hit rate (30.0%).

He has generated a weak 68.5 mpg average bat speed (ninth percentile) and is impacting the ball at a low 25,4% LA Sweet-Spot rate. While his above-average Pull AIR% has helped offset his lower hard-hit marks, it will soon catch up to him.

In the visual below, managers can see that his "expected" metrics peaked in April and have gradually declined since.

When looking at offspeed pitches, Hicks posted an elite .419 xwOBA in April, but has yet to surpass a .220 xwOBA in each of the next four months of action. In terms of breaking balls, Hicks generated a high .366 xwOBA in April, but took a major step back over the next two months before showing some positive signs in July.

In terms of xSLG (visual below), managers can spot a similar trend, especially when identifying his production as fastballs, as he has yet to come close to the over-inflated .451 xwOBA he generated back in April.

The lone factor which should keep his value somewhat high in points leagues is his late 9.0% K% and modest 9.3% BB%. However, with a projected drop in batting average and power, Hicks can quickly go from a must-start catcher to a fringe top-15 option by August.

Jake McCarthy, OF, Colorado Rockies

The other hitter I will spotlight is an outfielder. Jake McCarthy has been a wonderful surprise for those who were relatively new to the waiver wire. With the Rockies, McCarthy has been a "must-start" player, holding a .302/.348/.512 slash line with 10 home runs and 17 stolen bases.

McCarthy was always a reliable source for stolen bases while in the desert but was never a consistent source for batting average and especially power. However, playing in the benefit of Coors Field, McCarthy has turned in a Year 6 breakout.

Unfortunately, managers should be looking to sell high or bolster their outfield depth, as his current pace is likely to come to a screeching halt in the second half.

Like Hicks, McCarthy possesses very concerning underlying metrics. The 28-year-old has generated a modest .259 xBA (.302 BA) and a 41st percentile xwOBA, and frankly, the most concerning, a low .396 xSLG (512 SLG). While some of his production should be taken with a grain of salt due to playing half of his games in Coors, he is still dominantly overperforming on the road.

While at home, McCarthy has held a .318/.354/.578 line while holding a .285/.342/.438 line on the road. The Denver altitude has inflated his home production, but even while on the road, managers should expect him to take a prominent step back.

The Virginia product has generated a weak 24.7% hard-hit rate (third percentile), 5.8% barrel rate (26th percentile), and a 71.1 mph average bat speed (33rd percentile).

McCarthy will still hold high value at home, but those who expect him to maintain his near high-end OF3/low-end OF2 pace should look to find some depth pieces for their bench. This surge will not last much longer.

Michael King, SP, San Diego Padres

Michael King enjoyed a career season back in 2024 when he logged 173 2/3 innings to the tune of a 2.95 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. This season, the right-hander struck out a season-best 201 hitters and emerged as a legit high-end pitcher for fantasy.

However, in 2024, King battled injuries, tossing only 73 1/3 innings, which pushed him down draft boards ahead of 2026. While he has yet to return to his 2024 level of play, King has been a solid high-oval pitcher for those who took a flyer on him in drafts.

So far, King has made 20 starts and logged 113 1/3 innings of work with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. His K% has dropped to 20.7%, well below average, and his walk rate has climbed to 9.7%. However, despite this, King has maintained solid ratios and been a high-floor SP3/SP4 in 12-team leagues.

While managers have enjoyed his services, he is emerging as a prime sell candidate, especially after his recent surge. Since June 22 (his last 28 1/3 innings), King has posted a 2.54 ERA with a sharp 1.06 WHIP.

Unfortunately, his underlying marks suggest this pace is quite unsustainable.

Per Statcast, the right-hander has generated a hefty 4.61 ERA, which sits more than a point above his current ERA (3.34). His .248 xBA is also below the average mark (48th percentile), and his modest 29.5% chase% and 25.1% whiff% suggest his strikeout total should not get much higher down the stretch.

Over the last month, King has begun to make some tweaks to his pitch mix, which has led to his recent improvements on the bump, but it won't be enough to counteract this expected regression. As shown below, King has begun to lower his sinker usage in favor of his changeup.

While his sinker's hefty .409 xwOBA was a concern, his changeup is also due for a step back, as the .303 xwOBA is much higher than the current .242 wOBA. Additionally, this pitch has generated a .388 xSLG, nearly 100 points higher than the .287 SLG on the surface.

His concerning strikeout rates and expected regression make King one of the top sell candidates at his position.

Justin Wrobleski, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

The other starring pitcher has even more underlying metrics than King. Justin Wrobleski has been a waiver-wire wonder and likely will become one of the most trusted pitchers on your staff if you were quick to pick him up from the waiver wire.

However, it may be time to look for some more pitching depth, and Wrobleski's dominant run is expected to come to an end.

Through 100 1/3 innings this season, the southpaw has posted a sharp 2.69 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP. He has struck out only 73 hitters, but his elite ratios have made him a must-start fantasy option for nearly the entire first half.

Despite his production in the box scores, Wrobleski is due for a significant decline down the stretch. The 26-year-old currently holds a looming 4.13 xERA with a high .264 xBA, both of which put him below the average marks of qualified pitchers.

While his 5.0% BB% will keep his WHIP low, he is allowing loud contact, with a high 42.9% hard-hit rate, and has struggled to keep the ball on the ground, with a modest 40.9% ground-ball rate.

When looking deeper at his pitch mix, managers can spot even greater flaws in his game. While his four-seamer (50.0% usage) has generated a low .246 SLG, it holds a high .357 xSLG with a .285 xwOBA under the hood. His No. 2 pitch, his slider, should also take a step back, as the .320 xwOBA is much higher than the current .261 wOBA it has generated.

Wrobleski should still be a strong candidate to add to his win total, pitching for the Dodgers, but his low whiff rates and underlying metrics make him a top self-high candidate like King. Managers relying on Wrobleski as a legit SP2 in their staff should be making other arrangements, as this production will not continue down the stretch.

Riley O'Brien, RP, St. Louis Cardinals

Rounding out this column will be our relief pitcher to guess. Nearly all of the "elite" tier of closers face very little risk of regression outside of the top option in St. Louis. Riley O'Brien has emerged as one of the top saves sources for those who took a flyer on the St. Louis bullpen.

JoJo Romero appeared to be the early-season favorite, but O'Brien has since claimed the job and not looked back. Through 40 1/3 innings of work, the right-hander has totaled 25 saves with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He has struck out 40 hitters while walking 8.3% of the batters he has faced, putting him just above the average marks.

However, O'Brien appears destined for a step back and could be best to sell high in favor of another more reliable closer within the top tier of options.

The 31-year-old currently boasts a 4.40 xERA, which puts him in the 38th percentile and is nearly a whole point above his surface-level ERA. His .243 xBA puts him in the 43rd percentile, and his modest 38.9% hard-hit rate puts him just below the average marks.

His pitch mix has not changed over the course of the campaign as he has continued to rely on his sinker (59.8% of the time), and he has even begun to lean on it more over the last two months. He mixes in a sweeper as his No. 2 and occasionally tosses a changeup and slider as his third and fourth options.

His sinker has generated a .342 xwOBA compared to a .320 wOBA on the surface and holds a .406 xSLG, nearly 50 points higher than his current value on the surface, suggesting prominent regression is looming.

Additionally, there is also an outside chance that the Cardinals opt to "sell-high" on this reliever in favor of prospects to continue to form the foundation of their future. In this scenario, O'Brien could immediately revert to an eighth-inning role on a World Series contender, which would decimate his value in "saves-only" leagues.

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