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Jason Malmanger's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings/FanDuel lineup picks for LPL & LCK Playoffs on 4/4/21. His top LoL value plays and esports DFS recommendations.
Last night the favs rolled, and the leaderboards were very tight as a result. Double top lane was the nuts on DK, and even though you could work your way into double mid lane paying down was the top option. According to Vegas, tonight's slate promises to be wide open, and curiously both of the higher seeds come in as underdogs. I expect some lineups with one-offs from losing teams to crack the top tens in tournament play today.
T1 and Gen G will be a rematch of the debut of the T1 playoff roster. One that I think caught Gen G a bit off guard, but that won't be the case today. Gen G (SSG, KSV) and T1 have been battling it out atop the LCK for years, and today will be yet another entry into their storied history. On the LPL side of things, last year's Worlds runners-up SNG tore through LNG en route to a 3-0 to set the date with WE today. This will be another revenge matchup with WE, who were the last team to beat SNG back at the close of week 8.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Sunday, April 4th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other helpful info for the slate.
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LCK Match
4:00 AM: Gen G (+115) vs. T1 (-150)
Since the debut of the "Playoff Roster," T1 has been smashing the early game, and with their talented collection of experienced players holding those leads, only dropping two games through five series. Gen G bounced back from that T1 loss to hand DWG only their second loss of the spring split and are looking for vengeance vs. T1.
T1 has been excellent in the early game all split, and that should be the case here. They have the edge in first blood, rift herald, first turret, first three turrets, and GD@15. Gen G holds the advantage in first drake and total drakes with baron percentages being similar. Gen G does still maintain their vision edge and has been very good late in the game with their patience. T1 has more advantages here, but if Gen g can weather the early storm, they should match T1 late.
T1 has only lost two games since the swap, but both have been on the red side. Gen G has side selection in this one, and they used the blue side to upset DWG. Both teams can win this matchup, but the kill numbers tell the story for me. Gen G is one of the slowest teams in the LCK this year, and they only average 16 deaths in their losses. That will limit T1's upside in a win. Gen G is also slow when winning, but with T1 pushing the pace recently, they have averaged 21.5 deaths in their losses. That boost to the Gen G side is enough for me to look at them in a new light, and it's pushing me toward a dog or pass look here.
Top Gen G Plays
- Clid - JNG -.leads the team in KP%.
- Bdd - MID - second in both kill metrics.
- Gen G - TEAM - even with the T1 death numbers, I will keep my stacks from this side small.
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LPL Match
5:00 AM: Team We (+120) vs. Suning (-155)
The last time these two met Team, WE pushed the pace in game one and kept SNG out of their comfort zone. In game two, SNG got out drafted (crazy, I know) and couldn't set up Huanfeng to carry late. Since that matchup, SNG has been in cruise control. They haven't lost a game, albeit to inferior competition in defeating LNG twice, BLG and Estar. WE have gotten an early taste of playoff pressure facing BLG, TES, and EDG. EDG and TES spanked them in their last two matches before the playoffs and now have to dust themselves off and get ready for one of the hottest teams in the league.
I picked SNG to take the series the first time around, and I think I'm still on that prediction. Since the break, SNG has been one of the best early game teams in the league, trailing only TES in EGR per Oracle's Elixir. They have a substantial edge in first blood, rift herald, and GD@15. SNG also has the advantage in total drakes, barons, and vision numbers. WE have better tower numbers even with SNG securing the rift herald more often, and they have picked up the first drake more often. Overall I think SNG has the edge in the team stats.
The jungle matchup will be huge in this playoff showdown, with Beishang trying to keep SofM on his side of the map. Bei has been stuck on the Udyr pick for a month straight, and if that priority continues, I think SNG will be able to find a way around the bear man's early strength. SofM continues to see creative picks and pathing on his way to being the highest-ranked LPL jungler in CSD, XPD, and GD at ten minutes into the game. The loss to WE was also the first match for SNG on 11.5, and since then, we've seen Huanfeng go massive on his Jinx. I think those are the two spots on the map that represent the most significant edge for either team, and both are in SNG's favor.
I'm favoring SNG in this one in a likely 3-1 win, but we did see WE won this matchup a few weeks ago. For WE to pull it out, we'll need to see Shanks and Breathe go even in their matchups while Beishang paths to the bottom side to help hold Haunfeng down. This attention will set up Juimeng to carry late from a position of advantage over HF. SNG, for me, has a much more variable and easy to accomplish win conditions. Win jungle win game, and with the depth of SofM's champion pool and the team's draft strengths coming more and more online as the season progresses, I think we see SNG continue to roll.
Both of these teams should score well in a series win. If SNG are up as I expect them to be early, they will face multiple WE comeback attempts from power positions. WE are not as polished as SNG when it comes to map play, so they will try to brute force things with team fights both ahead and behind, making this the better series to target for kills. I usually think of SNG as one of the slower LPL teams, but they average 18.75 deaths in their losses post LNY and have hit nearly 18 kills in their wins. We are also north of 18 deaths when they lose and, with their scrappy style, push 19 kills in victories. With these numbers, I think it's reasonable to play both sides of the matchup, although I'll mainly focus on SNG.
Top SNG Plays:
- Haunfeng - ADC - leads the team in both kill metrics.
- SofM - JNG - Style of Me is narrowly third in KP% and second in KS% post LNY.
- ON - SUP - he has shown growth throughout the split and developed with HF nicely.
- Bin - TOP - cuts Angel, but depending on where you go in the first set, I think any and all SNG are in play.
Summary
- TLDR: Gen G 3-2, SNG 3-1, everything is on the table for this one. I'm picking Gen G off gut feeling, but T1 has been great since the roster re-shuffle, and it's difficult to pick against them. I like SNG, but WE swept them a few weeks ago.
- TODAY, the LPL should be the dominant scoring side in a further return to normalcy after the first few playoff slates saw LCK teams ramping up. No matter which side of the T1/Gen G you land on, I would keep those stacks small and focus on the LPL matchup.
- Please keep an open mind for this open slate. We could easily see the full ten games tonight, and that will put everything on the table. Don't be afraid to put some one-offs into lineups if you're building multiples tonight.
- Good luck out there, ballers and thanks again for joining me again for these incredible playoff series.
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