Joey Gallo to the Yankees - Fantasy Impact

August 1, 2021

The New York Yankees acquired a much needed left-handed power bat in outfielder Joey Gallo. Michael Grennell examines Gallo's value in fantasy baseball, plus the value their fantasy baseball value for 2021 and beyond.

The Yankees got the left-handed power-hitting bat that they've been looking for in outfielder Joey Gallo. After spending the first seven years of his career in Texas, Gallo is heading to the Big Apple as the Rangers look to start a rebuild. Here's how the trade broke down:

Yankees receive: OF Joey Gallo, LHP Joely Rodriguez, cash considerations
Rangers receive: SS Josh Smith, 2B Ezequiel Duran, 2B/OF Trevor Hauver, RHP Glenn Otto.

The Yankees will hope that Gallo and Rodriguez can help the team rebound after a dismal first half of the season where they were 46-43 entering the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Rangers get a haul of four of the Yankees' top 30 prospects according to MLB Pipeline's rankings. We'll go over those prospects, but first let's start off by looking at the Yankees' side of the deal.

Joey Gallo: Demolisher of Baseballs

Gallo had a poor campaign in 2020 where he posted career-worsts with a .181 average and .679 OPS, but he still managed to slug 10 home runs in 57 games. He's managed to bounce back nicely so far in 2021, as he slashed .223/.379/.490 with 25 homers, six steals, 55 RBI and 57 runs scored over 95 games with Texas. He's really kicked things into overdrive over his last 30 games, where he's slashing .234/.379/.702 with 14 homers, 24 RBI and 22 runs scored.

The best part is that his Statcast metrics back up this performance as being legitimate. He now owns a .221 xBA and .490 xSLG, and he has shown marked improvements in his plate discipline. His career-best 19.1 percent walk rate is in the 100th percentile in the majors, he's dropped his strikeout rate to a (albeit still on the high side) career-best 32.2 percent mark, and his 19.8 percent chase rate ranks in the 92nd percentile. Plus he's making great contact right now, as his 18.4 percent barrel rate ranks in the 97th percentile.

Another aspect of this trade that should not be overlooked is the fact that Gallo could see a boost in power output thanks to the short porch at Yankees Stadium. While Gallo has 25 home runs this year, his expected home run total at Yankees Stadium according to Statcast is 29. That's the highest expected total for Gallo this year for any stadium in the majors.

Looking at the lineup for New York now, they went with Giancarlo Stanton in left field, Aaron Judge in center field and Gallo in right field for Friday's matchup with the Marlins. Once the Yankees head back to American League play, Stanton will move back to the designated hitter slot and we'll likely see Brett Gardner take over in center field, with Gallo and Judge rounding out the corner outfield slots. The acquisition of Gallo won't have too much in the way of ramifications for playing time, but it does cut into the value of guys who were options in deeper formats like Greg Allen and Estevan Florial, and when they return from injury, Tim Locastro and Miguel Andujar will take a hit to their playing time as well.

And before we get to the prospects that are heading to Texas, we'll take a quick look at Rodriguez. The short answer is there isn't much value to be found there. For starter, New York has already optioned him to the minors. But even beyond that, he was 1-3 with a 5.93 ERA, 1.610 WHIP and 23.4 percent strikeout rate over 27 1/3 innings of work. He had proven to be an option in deeper SV/HLD formats though with nine holds this season. His 3.93 xERA suggests that he's been somewhat unlucky this year, but even still he's really not much of an option in any format even when he's back in the majors.

Rebuilding The Rangers

The highest-ranked prospect that Texas received in the deal was Smith, who was ranked No. 14 in the Yankees' system by MLB Pipeline. He now enters Texas' rankings at No. 7, as he has looked great this year between Single-A and High-A where he's slashing .324/.448/.641 with nine homers, 17 steals, 24 RBI and 44 runs scored over 39 games. Smith was a second-round pick in 2019, and over 72 career games now, he's hitting .324 with a 1.018 OPS, 12 home runs, 23 steals, 39 RBI and 61 runs scored. If he continues to put up similar numbers going forward, it's looking like the Rangers could have just acquired a guy with the potential to put up at the very least similar numbers to Elvis Andrus in his prime. He's likely at least a year and a half away from the majors, but he's definitely a guy dynasty managers should be getting excited about.

Duran was the No. 15 prospect for New York, and now he is ranked at No. 8 in the Rangers' system. He's started to develop some pop at the plate over his last two seasons in the minors, hitting 13 homers with a .496 slugging percentage over 66 games in 2019 and hitting 12 home runs with a .533 slugging percentage over 67 games at High-A this year. He boasts a career .262 average and .806 OPS over four seasons in the minors, and he's looking like he could become a potential 20-20 threat in the future, although he's still a few years away from making an impact in fantasy.

Yet another middle infielder (although he played primarily in the outfield in college), Hauver has been raking in his first season in the minors, slashing .288/.445/.498 with nine home runs, two steals, 49 RBI and 48 runs scored over 66 games at Single-A. He was a 2020 third-round pick for New York, and while he hasn't had much playing time yet in the minors, he looks to be another high-upside prospect for Texas.

And finally the only non-position player heading to Texas. Otto moves from the No. 28 prospect in New York to the No. 25 prospect in the Rangers' system now, and out of the group of prospects Texas acquired, Otto is the closest to reaching the majors. He's split time between Double-A and Triple-A this year, and between the two levels he's gone 7-3 with a 3.33 ERA, 1.018 WHIP and 38.1 percent strikeout rate. Otto is the guy that managers should keep an eye out for, as he could find his way to Texas very soon — especially since they shipped off Kyle Gibson on Friday to the Phillies which could open up a spot for Otto down the road.

Outlook for 2021 and Beyond

For the Yankees, Gallo should continue to be one of the top power-hitting outfielders in fantasy, and he could even see a slight boost in home runs, RBI and runs scored playing for New York. His arrival will cause a downgrade for some fringe players who were really only options in deeper formats like Allen, Locastro and Florial, but otherwise he'll be a boost across the board for the regulars in the Yankees lineup. Rodriguez won't provide any value while he's in the minors, and even if he gets called up it's unlikely he'll be worth looking at outside of deeper SV/HLD leagues.

The three middle-infield prospects that Texas acquired show a lot of upside, especially with their power-speed combo. Smith is the most exciting of the trio, but dynasty managers would do well to also stash Duran and Hauver. Otto seems to be the closest to reaching the majors, and he's the one who could likely make an impact in fantasy this season. If he gets called up this year, managers will want to scoop him up but only use him when he gets a favorable matchup while he gets adjusted to major league pitching.

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