RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the Vivint Houston Open. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.
Welcome back RotoBaller PGA family! Veteran journeyman Brian Gay posted an out-of-nowhere performance to take down last week's Bermuda Championship in a playoff over Wyndham Clark. It was the 48-year-old's first victory since 2013 and his first top-25 finish since the PGA Tour's restart in June!
While we didn't have Gay featured in this article last week, our selections fared well in Bermuda, as both Doc Redman and Denny McCarthy notched top-five finishes, with Russell Knox and Beau Hossler also posting solid results for us. This week we head to Houston for the final event before the rescheduled Masters!
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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Vivint Houston Open Overview
After a less-than-inspiring field to work with in Bermuda last week, the caliber of this week's Vivint Houston Open entry list takes a big jump up. This tournament will be the last event to be played before the rescheduled Masters next week.
We've been faced with obstacles from a course-history perspective over the last several events and that will once again be the case this week. Though the Houston Open has been around for many years, this will mark the first time since 1963 that it will be held on the freshly-renovated Memorial Park Golf Course. So, we're forced to once again figure out a brand-new layout this week.
While the golf course may be unfamiliar to us, we at least have several well-known players teeing it up in Houston this week. Recently-surging Lanto Griffin is set to defend his title and he'll be joined by some of the PGA's best, including reigning FedEx Cup champion, Dustin Johnson, who will be making his first start since a positive COVID-19 test in mid-October. While DJ is certainly the headliner, there's no shortage of star power this week, as players like Tony Finau, Tyrrell Hatton, Brooks Koepka, and Hideki Matsuyama will be fine-tuning their games in Houston in preparation of next week's Masters.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Memorial Park GC
Par 72 - 7,432 Yards, Greens: Bermuda (MiniVerde), Designed By: John Bredemus (1936), Renovation: Tom Doak (2019)
Originally a nine-hole course that was converted into an 18-hole layout in 1936, Memorial Park underwent a massive Tom Doak-led renovation last year (with input from player-consultant Brooks Koepka) that stretches the track to a very-modern 7,432 yards. The course is open to the public and built over 250 acres on a municipal park owned by the city of Houston. Doak is one of the most prominent names in modern golf architecture, but this will curiously be the first Doak-designed course to be played on the PGA Tour schedule, so lots of questions abound as to how this layout will play for the pros.
We have to believe that players will be able to go low this week, as Doak was forced to create a layout that is playable by the public for the other 51 weeks of the year. His renovation included removing many of the courses bunkers. Players will be faced with multiple risk/reward holes, including a closing stretch that features two potentially drivable Par-4s and two Par-5s. Like Sherwood a couple of weeks ago, Memorial Park features a rarely-seen layout of five Par-5s and five Par-3s, which forces me to weight scoring on each heavier than usual. Since we're guessing in a lot of areas, I'll lean on Strokes Gained: T2G and Ball Striking for the most part, while also giving a large bump to longer hitters that can score on Par-5s, Birdie or Better % and a slight nod to Bermuda putting splits.
Recent Champions & Winning Scores *None Played At Memorial Park*
- Lanto Griffin (-14)
- Ian Poulter (-19)
- Russell Henley (-20)
- Jim Herman (-15)
- J.B. Holmes (-16)
The Horse
Tony Finau
DraftKings: $10,900
FanDuel: $11,500
Notable Course History: N/A
After being forced to miss a couple of weeks due to a positive COVID-19 test, Tony came out firing off the layoff at the ZOZO Championship, briefly holding the lead in the third round, before eventually settling for a share of 11th place.
Finau gained strokes in every major statistical area at the ZOZO, including gaining 3.2 strokes T2G. It was his sixth-straight start with a positive number in the SG: T2G category. He brings that momentum to a Memorial Park layout that should suit his strengths, as we expect players to be able to bomb away without much fear. Finau will have the opportunity to fire away at five Par-5s this week and he stands fourth in this field in SG: Par-5s over the last 24 rounds.
His consistency is hard to ignore...over his last 10 tournaments, Finau has three top-5s and two top-10s. The price tag is high, but the combination of “safety” and upside that he brings to the table this week is perhaps unmatched by any other player on the slate.
The Ponies
Brooks Koepka
DraftKings: $10,600
FanDuel: $11,800
Notable Course History: N/A
If we’re being honest, it’s been an ugly year for Brooks Koepka, as injury and erratic play have completely marred 2020 for the four-time major champion. However, a really horrible year could quickly turn into a very successful one with a win at Augusta National next week.
We have to believe that if Koepka is healthy (a legitimate “if”), he will be trying to dial his game in. We’ve seen these “peaking for the majors” performances from him in the past. He posted a runner-up finish at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude earlier this year just a week before the PGA Championship, as well as top-five finishes in events the week directly prior to his last two PGA Championship victories.
In a week where we have literally zero course history for any player in the field, we can at least come up with a narrative tie to Memorial Park for Koepka. He was Tom Doak’s player consultant on the extensive renovation of this layout and should have more “course knowledge” than any player in this week’s field.
Outside of “narratives” we can look at Koepka’s actual on-course numbers as “not as bad as we might think”. He’s gained strokes on Approach in each of his last five starts, but has been undone by a shaky putter. Let’s not forget that this is a player that very nearly won the FedEx St. Jude just a few short months ago and was a heavy betting (and DFS favorite) at the PGA Championship as a result...an event in which he was squarely in the mix heading into the final round.
Cameron Davis
DraftKings: $8,100
FanDuel: $9,800
Notable Course History: N/A
In the absence of course history, I'm taking a "bombers and birdie-makers that can score on Par-5s" approach at this (early) point in the week. Cameron Davis certainly pops when using that criteria. The young Aussie has been rounding into form over the three months, making the cut in six-straight outings with three top-15s among those starts.
Davis is averaging 314 yards off the tee this season and trails only Dustin Johnson in this week's field in SG: Par-5s. He stands 13th on the PGA Tour in Birdie Average and can rack up the birdies that it feels like we'll need this week. Despite his recent consistency, Davis' price has remained frozen in this low-$8k price range (where he's been priced in his last two starts). We can chalk his reasonable salary up to the rather strong players at the top of the board and I'm willing to grab what feels like a nice value here with Davis.
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Denny McCarthy
DraftKings: $7,900
FanDuel: $9,600
Notable Course History: N/A
After venturing up the salary scale to $9.5k last week at the Bermuda Championship, Denny McCarthy returns to the high-$7k range this week. I'm willing to continue riding McCarthy - a player that we highlighted last week and that posted a T4 in Bermuda - at this reasonable price tag.
It's easy to think of him "only" as a great putter - after all, he has finished first in SG: Putting on the PGA Tour for the last two seasons - but there are some areas of his game that are a bit underrated. McCarthy has been surprisingly good on Par-5s as of late, ranking sixth in this week's field in SG: Par-5s over the last 24 rounds. He's also been adept at pouring in birdies in bunches recently, with birdie totals of 21/22/22 in his last three starts.
Wyndham Clark
DraftKings: $7,700
FanDuel: $9,200
Notable Course History: N/A
A bit of a "ride the hot hand" play here with Wyndham Clark, a player that's coming off a runner-up finish in Bermuda last week. It was Clark's second consecutive good outing (he posted a T13 at the Shriners). Clark is a very streaky player that we've seen play really well in spurts. He kinda reminds me of Billy Horschel, in that I want absolutely no part of him when his game is off, but I'm very willing to target him when things are clicking. It's fair to say that he's in a nice groove at the moment, as he's gained over 21 combined strokes total over his last two starts. Clark is a "bomb and gouge" player that's averaging a MASSIVE 320.5 yards off the tee and can make tons of putts when he's hot. He stands 11th in this week's field in SG: Par-5s over the last 24 rounds and will see five per round at Memorial Park, in addition to a couple of drivable Par-4s.
Adam Schenk
DraftKings: $7,100
FanDuel: $8,700
Notable Course History: N/A
We're gonna close things out this week with a player that jumps out as a strong value play at first glance. Adam Schenk has been sneaky-consistent since the restart, posting seven-straight made cuts. He's flirted with top-25 finishes in each of his last two starts. At just $7.1k, Schenk checks some of the boxes that we're looking for in Houston, ranking inside the top-25 in this field in both SG: Par-5s and Birdies or Better Gained. The downside - despite his ability to consistently make cuts - is that he's been unable to truly put four rounds together, which has limited his upside. That said, he has proven himself to be a capable scorer in "birdie-fest" situations and we have to love the flexibility that his salary brings to roster construction.
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