Hitter Fantasy Baseball Breakouts - Risers To Watch and Waiver Wire Outlooks (Week 2)

April 4, 2025

Jarod's hitter fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers and risers to watch for Week 2 of 2025. His list includes waiver wire outlooks and underachieving hitters so far.

Welcome to the first edition of my Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters series as we head into Week 2 of the 2025 MLB season! For those who are new to this article, I try to illuminate players whose recent stats suggest a breakout is coming or that perhaps they are on the verge of a cold spell.

In today's edition, we'll take a look at players like Jacob Wilson and Ivan Herrera. Checking in on who's hot (or not) can bring to light some interesting names. Some of those names could then become potential waiver wire targets for you or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) to use before the rest of the fantasy community catches on.

With just one week of data, the sample size is small, but we'll still see which players own the longest current hit streaks, highest batting average, and highest ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more.

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Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 4/2

Jacob Wilson (7 games)

I wrote about Jacob Wilson about a week ago, towards the end of March, in my Fantasy Prospects With The Best Hit Tools article, and all he's done since then is back it up. The 23-year-old has a hit in each game of the season to this point, currently riding a seven-game hit streak.

Three hits were collected in the last contest, including a double, and he's launched one home run thus far as well. After a four-homer Cactus League campaign, some dismissed the newfound power stroke, chalking it up to the sometimes less-than-major-league-worthy pitching you find in spring training.

Jacob Wilson rips his first Major League home run 👏 pic.twitter.com/RwQEEIUOjo

— MLB (@MLB) April 1, 2025

While the 2025 regular season is just a small sample size for now, and that may be true, it's worth noting that last season in his 28-game debut that totaled 103 plate appearances, the youngster registered a 0.0 percent barrel rate. No, Mr. Blutarsky, that's not a typo.

In just 24 plate appearances in 2025, the former first-round draft pick already has a 4.2 percent barrel rate. Ok, so you say there's obviously some regression to be expected now. Well, Nolan Arenado (16 HR), Steven Kwan (14), and Bryson Stott (11) all had a barrel rate of 3.6 percent or less last year and still hit at least 11 home runs each.

Guess what else? The kid hasn't struck out even one time in 24 at-bats so far! So, he's proven he can hit, he may be growing into some power (they don't all have to be home runs, they can be doubles too), and can be a reliable plug-and-play option when your starting shortstop has a day off.

The point of all of this is that 11 percent rostership in Yahoo! leagues feels light, so consider the potential AL Rookie of the Year for a roster spot.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa (6 games)

After going hitless on Opening Day, Isiah Kiner-Falefa has collected a hit in six consecutive games, going 7-for-19 (.368) over that time. It shouldn't come as too much of a surprise, as the 30-year-old owns a strong career contact rate of 86.3 percent and historically strikes out at a better-than-average rate for his career (15.5 percent).

What stands out, though, is the contrast in walk rate compared to what he's done in his career, with a 15.4 percent rate in 2025 compared to a career rate of 5.7 percent. With a .462 OBP so far, the veteran has seen stolen base opportunities increase, tallying four swipes already.

While he's not the shortstop of the future for Pittsburgh, he's certainly the shortstop of the present, and can be had in 80 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Did I mention he's eligible at 2B, 3B, and SS on Yahoo! as well?

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, data through 4/2

Ivan Herrera (.467)

Cardinals backstop Ivan Herrera is hitting .467 (7-for-15) over the first week of the season, but look closer in the table, that's not all. Five of the seven hits are for extra bases, which included a three-homer game on April 2, with eight RBI and five runs to boot.

Iván Herrera becomes the first catcher in Cardinals history with three home runs in one game! 💣 pic.twitter.com/pJ7SJ1wpWw

— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) April 2, 2025

Could anyone have seen this coming? Well, yes, our very own John Laghezza outlined his case for Herrera to finish as a top-3 catcher this season on the back of strong plate discipline metrics and durability.

Top 3 is certainly bold, but top 12 seems perfectly reasonable at this point. Of course, it's a long season and we have only a small sample size to go off of, but early returns provide an optimistic view. Especially for a catcher that was going off the boards near pick 223 and is still only rostered in 41 percent of Yahoo! leagues (go get him!).

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, data through 4/2

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Wilmer Flores (.545)

Wilmer Flores endured an injury-marred 2024 campaign that saw him log just 71 games, but in 2023, the Venezuelan hit a career-high 23 home runs and batted .284 in 126 games.

With a career contact rate of 85.6 percent, 13.8 percent K%, and 6.8 percent swinging-strike rate, he tends to put the bat on the ball well.

The 16.7 percent barrel rate he's shown so far this season is not sustainable given he owns a career rate of 4.9 percent, but as I outlined with Wilson above, that rate can still get you mid-teens home run totals.

Also, there are four players who lead the league with 11 RBI over the first week of the season, so Flores' 10 RBI gives him the second-most in baseball thus far.

If you're looking to catch lightning in a bottle early on in the 2025 fantasy season, Flores could be your guy, and he's rostered in less than 10 percent of leagues.

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data through 4/2

Victor Scott II (4)

Chandler Simpson is all the rage these days after he swiped 104 bags last season and 94 the year before that in 2023. Did you know that two players stole 94 bases in 2023, though?

It's true, and the other player was Victor Scott II. The speedster was given a shot in the pros last year, but only managed to hit .179 during his 53-game audition with a 6:42 BB:K in 155 PA.

After an impressive spring this year, the left-handed hitter made the Cardinals' Opening Day roster as the starting center fielder and has ridden that momentum into the first week, going 8-for-23 (.348) with a home run, five RBI, four runs, and four stolen bases.

The 2:5 BB:K is a much more promising ratio than he produced in 2024, and so long as he can keep getting on base, the steals will pile up.

ATC projections call for 26 swipes in 100 games, but that number would surely balloon if he can stick with the club all season. Right now, he's looking like he can, and he's available in about half of Yahoo! leagues.

xBA Underachiever

Data through 4/2

Below are a couple of hitters who have some of the biggest differences between their current batting average and their expected batting average, or xBA. While many times this is a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain.

Sometimes, hitters over- or underperform their xBA throughout their career, so regression to the xBA may not happen. Let's discuss a well-known player who is underachieving according to xBA.

Mike Trout (.143 vs. .317)

Finally healthy, fantasy managers who drafted Mike Trout were banking on him being some semblance of his former self when it came to offense.

Unfortunately, that has not been the case to this point. However, there are reasons to be optimistic. One, of course, is that while he owns a .143 BA (3-for-21) through six games, his xBA comes in at .317. The ultra-low BABIP of .118 should regress, hopefully at least back to the still-low .194 he registered last season.

While he's posting a career-worst contact rate and swinging-strike rate thus far, the 11-time All-Star has hits in two straight games (a double and a home run) and has five RBI in the last three games.

MIKE TROUT HOME RUN pic.twitter.com/nmdAt3KHtc

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 2, 2025

I know he's been around forever, and health has been a concern, but to put it in perspective, he's still younger than Freddie Freeman by two years. Freeman may also be breaking down, but he had an MVP-caliber age-33 season, so it can be done.

Trout probably isn't going to have an MVP-caliber season, but a serviceable one for fantasy is still in the cards, so don't panic yet.

Honorable mention: Drake Baldwin (.056 vs. .242)

xBA Overachiever

Data through 4/2

We'll touch on a hitter below who might eventually cool off. In this case, the BA is much higher than the xBA, and some regression should be expected. Note that players usually exhibit a gradual decline rather than a steep drop-off, but we should be vigilant nonetheless.

Jonny DeLuca (.438 vs. .262)

You may have seen Jonny DeLuca's name in a couple of the tables above, so he's definitely made a fantasy impact early on in the season. But how long will it last?

You don't need me to tell you that DeLuca won't hit around .438 for the entire year, but there is quite a large discrepancy between his actual BA compared to his xBA, likely due in large part to an astronomical .500 BABIP that is sure to regress.

Still, if he were to end the season with a .262 BA, we'd probably still say he overachieved after hitting .217 in 2024. And despite that low batting average last season, the former 25th-round draft pick was able to swipe 16 bases, so he brings some intrigue for fantasy.

Just know that if you are trying to ride the hot hand, it may go cold sooner rather than later.

Also: Alan Roden (.313 vs. .184)

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