Free NCAA Tournament Betting Picks - First Round Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds

March 17, 2025

Brant's top NCAA Tournament betting picks and best bets for Round 1 college basketball games in the NCAA Tournament. Free picks for March Madness first weekend games.

We finally made it to Selection Sunday and after a full college basketball season, the field is set for the most exciting postseason in sports. From intriguing high-major matchups such as Louisville-Creighton to underdog mid-majors looking to pull off upsets such as UC San Diego and High Point, next week's journey to the Sweet 16 is bound to be full of surprises.

Given that the field was just announced, we are sure to see line shifts throughout the next few days. One of the below lines that I like has already shifted a point from the time I started writing this article to now. You may want to take the value on these now before the lines shift around.

At an initial glance, these five plays are my favorites for the first round of the NCAA Tournament. You can access all of our latest sports betting promos, and sign up for a sportsbook here.

Purdue Boilermakers (4) vs. High Point Panthers (13)

Thursday, March 20 - 12:40 p.m. EDT (truTV)

Coming off a season in which it made it to the national title game, Purdue was nowhere near as dominant as it was a season ago. Matt Painter's Boilermakers are largely a two-man team, playing through junior guard Braden Smith (16.1 PPG) and junior forward Trey Kaufman-Renn (20.2 PPG).

They have done a lot of losing as favorites this season, most recently being blown out in the Big Ten quarterfinals against Michigan. They also suffered surprising defeats at the hands of Ohio State, Indiana, and Penn State this season. When Kaufman-Renn gets into foul trouble, they have no post presence and rely far too heavily on Smith.

High Point, on the other hand, has only fallen five times this season. Head coach Alan Huss is a winner, boasting a record of 56-14. The Panthers hold solid non-conference wins over UAB, American, and North Texas.

When it comes down to it, Painter has a history of suffering first-round upsets and this edition of the Boilermakers is built to be upset. Painter has suffered a first-round exit four times since taking over at Purdue, losing to Fairleigh Dickinson, North Texas, Arkansas-Little Rock, and Cincinnati. 

Taking a well-rounded, experienced High Point team plus the points feels like a safe bet here.

The Pick: High Point +9.5

Louisville Cardinals (8) vs. Creighton Blue Jays (9)

Thursday, March 20 - 12:15 p.m. EDT (CBS)

Louisville on the eight-line felt very low considering the season it had, and especially low considering that fellow ACC team North Carolina made the field as a No. 11 seed. The Cardinals will be playing close to home in Lexington but will have their hands full with Greg McDermott's Creighton Blue Jays.

Pat Kelsey has done an incredible job in Year 1 on the job, turning Louisville around from a perennial bottom feeder to one of very few consistent ACC squads. Through transfer guards Terrence Edwards Jr. (16.6 PPG), Chucky Hepburn (16.2 PPG), Reyne Smith (13.4 PPG), and J'Vonne Hadley (12.1 PPG), the Cardinals boast NCAA Tournament experience, leadership, and skill.

Creighton has experience of its own, led by senior center Ryan Kalkbrenner (19.4 PPG), who has won seven NCAA Tournament games throughout his time with the Blue Jays. 

While McDermott has had his fair share of postseason success, this Creighton team is not as well-rounded as his teams of the past. Steven Ashworth (16.3 PPG) and Kalkbrenner make a nice inside-outside duo, but Louisville has what it takes to outpace this team on the perimeter.

It has the bodies to throw fouls at Kalkbrenner in the paint, and the home court is only going to help Kelsey's team advance past the first round.

The Pick: Louisville -1.5

Missouri Tigers (6) vs. Drake Bulldogs (11)

Thursday, March 20 - 7:35 p.m. EDT (truTV)

Nobody expected either of these teams to be here before the season. Dennis Gates' Missouri Tigers won zero conference games a season ago. Drake lost its head coach along with star player Tucker DeVries, setting it up for a rebuild. 

Here we are now, where Drake has only lost three games all season and Missouri has been a consistent thorn in the side of SEC teams with road wins over Florida, Mississippi State, and Georgia.

Missouri boasts a deep rotation with nine players averaging over 13 minutes per game. It plays fast with several playmakers who all contribute different skills to create a well-rounded team.

Duke transfer Mark Mitchell (14.1 PPG) and Indiana transfer Tamar Bates (13.4 PPG) pace the team, and Caleb Grill (13.7 PPG) is one of the best shooters in the nation and has the clutch genes it takes to become a March legend.

I mean, come on. Caleb Grill is going to be a March Madness dream. #Mizzou pic.twitter.com/BW2PymMXyO

— Tom Ackerman (@Ackerman1120) February 1, 2025

As for Drake, Ben McCollum has risen from Division II superstar to a leading candidate at some of the best jobs in America in just one season. The Bulldogs have lost just three games this year and have a player in Bennett Stirtz (19.1 PPG) who can take control of a game. Drake loves to play slow-paced games, conflicting with Missouri's fast-paced style. 

I'm rolling with the under in this clash of styles. In order to keep this game within reach, Drake has to play its style of game and McCollum will ensure that happens.

Most SEC teams play quickly, and while 132.5 seems like a low line for a Missouri basketball game, it would have hit in its February 8 game against Texas A&M, which plays the most comparable style of basketball to Drake in the SEC.

The Pick: Under 132.5 total points

Florida Gators (1) vs. Norfolk State Spartans (16)

Friday, March 21 - 6:50 p.m. EDT (TNT)

Todd Golden's Florida Gators are my pick to bring home the national title this year. They have been playing the best basketball in the nation ever since they got fully healthy, yet they have been completely under the radar until their SEC Tournament title run.

Golden is not going to take the foot off the gas despite playing an inferior opponent. This team reminds me of the UConn teams of the past two seasons. Extremely well-rounded, can play great defense, scoring threats all over the court, simply better than everyone else in the field.

In an overmatched game, the Gators will roll and cover with ease. No disrespect to Norfolk State, it just happened to get the worst draw of any team in the tournament.

The Pick: Florida -27.5

UConn Huskies (8) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (9)

Friday, March 21 - 9:25 p.m. EDT (TNT)

Dan Hurley's UConn Huskies have had a very disappointing season coming off of back-to-back national titles. Starting with their last-place finish in Maui and finishing with a lackluster 14-6 record in a weak Big East, UConn remains a trendy pick given Hurley's recent tourney success.

On the other side of the court will be another experienced coach when it comes to the NCAA Tournament in Oklahoma's Porter Moser. Moser famously led Loyola-Chicago to a Final Four in 2018 and a Sweet 16 in 2021, but this will be his first tournament since taking over at Oklahoma.

The Huskies are led by a three-man trio of sophomore guard Solo Ball (14.6 PPG), freshman wing Liam McNeeley (14.5 PPG), and junior forward Alex Karaban (14.4 PPG).

Oklahoma is led by star freshman Jeremiah Fears (17.0 PPG), who is about to become a household name this week. The Sooners have won three of their last four to safely make it into the field and will have the most talented player on the floor in Fears. 

This team has battled through the best conference in the nation, won the Battle 4 Atlantis with wins over Arizona and Louisville, and has a coach with Final Four experience along with the best player on the floor.

The world will be on UConn because of recent tourney success and what looks like a more talented roster on paper, but this is where you zig when others zag. Boomer Sooner, let's fade the public.

The Pick: Oklahoma ML +190

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