Five Overvalued Starting Pitchers for 2023 Fantasy Baseball Drafts

February 16, 2023

Mark Kieffer looks at five starting pitchers to avoid for 2023 fantasy baseball drafts. Why is their fantasy value lower heading into 2023?

We have brought you five hitters to avoid in each of the infield and outfield. Now adding to the fold is five starting pitchers to avoid in 2023!

When playing fantasy baseball, the player pool is so deep you have to know it front and back. A key strategy I use when I am preparing for my fantasy baseball drafts is to narrow down my player pool. While I am still about a month and a half from drafting some of my main teams, it's never too early to take a look at how things sit and formulate ideas.

Below are the five starting pitchers I am most likely going to cross off from my player pool in 2023 in my 12-team leagues:

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Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays

Tyler Glasnow has been a headache to me and other fantasy baseball managers throughout his career.

He has a career 30.1% strikeout rate and has reached levels as high as 38%, Spencer Strider-like rates, in various seasons.

Right now, his ADP is pick 74, which is SP22.

This is a pitcher who has never gone more than 111 innings in his entire career. Do you really trust him to be your SP2? I like the skills and the strikeout upside, but if he isn't available to pitch, it's going to be much more difficult.

He also isn't a young kid anymore; he is 29 years old. Not too old to have a good season but I wonder if he will ever live up to the hype he has.

If wanting a high strikeout pitcher with upside, Nick Lodolo at ADP 119,  Freddy Peralta at ADP 136, or  Andrew Heaney at ADP 195 could all be better pivots for where they are going than to take another shot on Glasnow.

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves

Spencer Strider came on the scene almost out of nowhere and is now being drafted as a fantasy ace in 2023 coming off 11 wins, a 2.67 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and 202 strikeouts in 131.2 innings pitched. He produced SP1 numbers in two-thirds of the starts that most SP1 pitchers made last year.

Imagine what could happen if he pitched 160 or 170 innings instead of 131.2 innings at the rate he was doing things.

My issue with Strider is that his numbers are unlikely to hold up. Last year, he had a strikeout rate of 38.3%. The next highest among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched were Carlos Rodon (33.4%), Shohei Ohtani (33.2%), Cristian Javier (33.2%), Gerrit Cole (32.4%), and Blake Snell (32%). The 38.3% seems unlikely to sustain in the long term.

Next, I'm going to be in the camp that two-pitch pitchers are not great to have as fantasy aces. Strider depends on his fastball (67% of his pitches) and slider (28.2% of his pitches). He threw a changeup about 4.8% of the time. If he developed that into a more effective and reliable third pitch, that could be interesting.

Strider throws hard with a 98.1 mph average velocity on the fastball. What happens if for some reason his velocity is down? Can MLB hitters adjust to his two pitches?

He put up a great season but I have too many questions to have him as my fantasy ace.

Max Scherzer, New York Mets

Last year, Max Scherzer pitched the fewest number of innings in a full season, had the lowest strikeout rate since 2015, and has had a decline in velocity year over year since 2019.

Most projection systems have him pitching between 167 and 180 innings. In his 145 innings last year, he still showed to be one of the best pitchers. But being another year older, at some point, the decline will happen. My bigger worry is the number of innings pitched; I don't think he will reach his projected innings pitched.

There are several pitchers in his ADP range I think have a much better chance of eclipsing 160 innings pitched than Scherzer.

Justin Verlander, New York Mets

I love Justin Verlander's career and it's incredible the season he had last year with 18 wins, a 1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 185 strikeouts. But the odds are against Verlander here as he turns 40 in about a week or so.

You can count on one hand the number of pitchers in this era that have been successful at age 40 and beyond.  His K% and K-BB% are the lowest they have been since 2017. The one encouraging thing was his average fastball velocity was 95.1 -- in line with 2018 and 2019.

I have a difficult time trusting pitchers when they leave Houston and I have a difficult time trusting pitchers that are 40. Could Verlander have a nice season? For sure as ATC projects him for 13 wins, a 3.23 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 185 strikeouts in 165 innings pitched.

At Verlander's ADP of 41, I would rather have Dylan Cease who has an ATC projection of 13 wins, 3.51 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and 217 strikeouts in 180 innings pitched. Cease can outperform his projection as he pitches in a weak division and the White Sox should be improved from last year.

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

This is more about taking him based on where he is relative to ADP. He is being taken as the fourth or fifth pitcher off the board, but his profile is different than most pitchers that are being taken as fantasy aces.

My main issue with Alcantara is that he had a low strikeout rate of just 23.4% and his career strikeout rate is 21.9%. He doesn't walk a lot of guys and his walk rate has improved each year. He's solid and doesn't give up a lot of damage.

I just like a profile like Alcantara's more as an SP2 than an SP1. He's a good ratios guy that will eat a lot of innings. He strikes out less than one batter per inning and his high strikeout numbers have been dependent on the fact he has pitched over 200 innings in each of the last two years. If I am taking a top five starter, I want to find someone that not only delivers good ratios but good strikeout numbers.

To me, Alcantara is Max Fried going at pick 28 instead of 71 like Fried is.

Alcantara's ATC Projection: 3.28 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 190 Ks, 204 IP
Max Fried's ATC Projection: 3.26 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 168 Ks, 183 IP

Find a high strikeout pitcher early and pair with Max Fried and your overall pitching staff will likely be better than going with Alcantara in the last second/early third round of your draft.

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