Five Overvalued Outfielders for 2023 Fantasy Baseball Drafts

February 12, 2023

Mark Kieffer looks at five outfield hitters to avoid for 2023 fantasy baseball drafts. Why is their fantasy value lower heading into 2023?

Welcome back RotoBallers! This is the second part of our overvalued players series for 2023 fantasy baseball drafts. Today we are looking at outfielders. You can see the first part about overvalued infielders as well.

When playing fantasy baseball, the player pool is so deep you have to know it front and back. A key strategy I use when I am preparing for my fantasy baseball drafts is to narrow down my player pool. While I am still about a month and a half from drafting some of my main teams, it's never too early to take a look at how things sit and formulate ideas.

Below are the five outfield hitters I am most likely going to cross off from my player pool in 2023 in my 12-team leagues:

Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians

Steven Kwan hit .298 with six HR, 89 R, 52 RBI, and 19 SB in 2022. His ATC projection this year is similar: .282 with seven HR, 82 R, 54 RBI, and 16 SB.

His ADP is 114 or mid-12th round.

Fantasy baseball is about balance. He may steal 15-20 bases (which is a lot nowadays) and hit for a good average (.298 is considered a high average nowadays); along with scoring some runs, I believe there are better more balanced options in the same ADP range.

If you draft Steven Kwan, you have to balance it out by drafting someone that will hit 30 HR to offset his power shortage. What happens when the 30 HR guy gets hurt? Now you have to go on the waiver wire and maybe can churn out a 20 HR season. Well, now, you have 26 home runs dedicated to two positions.

Christian Yelich is in the same ADP range and is a 15/15 projection this year.

Manuel Margot has an ATC projection of 9 HR, 15 SB, 55 R, and 54 RBI in 100 fewer plate appearances and with a .259 average with an ADP of 312.

My advice is to have a foundation of a good batting average and a good number of steals early in the draft so you do not have to draft guys that will hit single-digit home runs in the name of making up for stolen bases.

There are plenty of OF that go in the late 100s and into the 200s that hit 20+ HR, whereas if you take care of steals earlier in the draft, you will be in much better shape.

Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks

Corbin Carroll is an exciting prospect and living in the Rocky Mountain Region, I will get to see him play a lot for years to come both in person and on TV. I hope he develops into a superstar. That said, he is being drafted too early.

His NFBC ADP is around pick 69 and he is the 18th OF off the board. His ATC projection is .251 with 17 HR, 19 SB, 77 R, and 60 RBI.

I love his power and speed combination, but he isn't being projected for enough power to warrant where he is going in drafts.

Tyler O'Neill has an ATC projection of .249 with 26 HR, 16 SB, 77 R, and 76 RBI and is going around pick 95. Christian Yelich is projected for 16/15 and is going around pick 118.

Corbin Caroll has more upside than Christian Yelich at Yelich's stage of his career. I am not so sure he has more than O'Neill, who already has a 34/15 season under his belt though.

Caroll basically went from Rookie Ball to Double-A, Triple-A, and the Major Leagues all in one season last year and nobody can take that away from him. He is a highly-rated prospect and going to be an excellent player for years to come. It just might take him a season or two to get to where people think he can go. If he can put up Adolis Garcia-type numbers and go 25/25, then his ADP was a bargain.

If he puts up 15/15 type numbers, that's Tyler O'Neill last year and this will be too high. I just don't want to pay to find out about someone with only 115 MLB plate appearances under his belt.

Starling Marte, New York Mets

Starling Marte has been a 5x5 roto star at times. He has a lifetime .290 average, and he has stolen 47 bases twice in his career. He has helped fantasy teams win throughout his career.

But Marte is getting older and it's starting to show. He hasn't had 600 plate appearances since 2018. He hasn't hit 20 home runs or more since 2019. Now the news is coming out that he is not going to be fully healthy by the time Spring Training starts and will be limited. We don't know what the effects of the injury will be on his game.

ATC has him projected to hit 14 home runs and steal 25 bases in 549 plate appearances with a .273 average. His ADP is around pick 82. This conversation is similar to the Corbin Carroll argument above in that I may not find as many steals as pivots, but I can find more reliable production with maybe 15 steals later in the draft.

There's a chance Marte isn't himself all year and his projection is optimistic. He's 34 now and has had a good career, I am a fan of his game in real life. I'm probably sitting this out and if another fantasy player has him on his roster and they beat me, they beat me.

Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins

Byron Buxton is going in the same ADP range as Corbin Carroll and Starling Marte. It may be clear now that I am fading this entire tier of outfielders.

Byron Buxton, I have an interest in points leagues but not in roto leagues. You see a guy hit 28 home runs in 92 games and how could someone not be interested?

He seems to have changed his game from being a potential 20/20 or 30/30 guy to being a 30/10 guy instead. He's not running as much and his batting average last year was a career-low of .224.

The last time he played a full season was in 2017. Last year, with 92 games played was the most in five years.

I believe the Twins have a plan to mitigate the number of innings Buxton plays in the outfield as he always seems to be getting injured in the outfield. They traded for Michael A. Taylor, I believe, to be the everyday CF. He is a Gold Glove winner. I believe Buxton will play some CF but probably play mostly DH. Nick Gordon probably sees some time in CF as well.

A full season of Byron Buxton could lead to 40 home runs.

I personally have done my fair share of having some Buxton, and when he is in my lineups, it's great. It is difficult for me to draft someone in the eighth round that has not played a full season since 2017. Depending on league settings and type of contest, it could make sense. In NFBC Main Events and Online Championships, I am not interested.

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

How could I?  He was undoubtedly the best fantasy player last year. What gives?

He's going too high in fantasy drafts.

In 2017, Aaron Judge hit .284 with 52 HR, 128 R, 114 RBI, and nine SB. In 2018 fantasy drafts, he was a mid-second-round pick. In 2018, he hit 27 HR with 77 R and 67 RBI as he played just 112 games.

In 2019, Judge was drafted as a second-round player again and he put up a very similar season, playing only 102 games.

In 2022, coming off of 2021 with 39 HR, 89 R, 98 RBI, and six SB, he was a third/fourth-round pick and obviously put up an all-time great season.

His ATC projection is close to his 2021 season, although a little bit better: 43 HR, 104 R, 106 RBI, and nine SB.

His top five value hinges on Judge stealing double-digit bases again. His 16 steals were a career-high, with nine being his next highest and in 2017. This is also the first time he has put up consecutive 600+ PA seasons.

What if Judge decides to stop running? He is going to be 31.

Mike Trout is projected for 40 HR and three steals and is going in the middle of Round 2. Manny Machado is projected for 31 HR and 10 SB and is going at Pick 15 on average.

Will you lose your fantasy league if Aaron Judge is your top five pick and he performs like a second-round pick? Probably not. I just have a fear of taking a guy after their career year as there is more to lose than to gain. I am pretty confident we will not see a 62-home run/16-stolen-base season in a long time.

I'd rather sacrifice some power with my first pick for someone that has a more solid track record of steals with a top five pick. I could always grab Trout/Devers/Alonso in the second round anyway.

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