Five Dynasty Fantasy Football Risky Buys Worth Gambling On

August 6, 2024

Alex Ciulla offers five fantasy football dynasty buys that present as high-risk, high-reward options to consider adding to round out your 2024 fantasy squad.

I've been participating in the great sport of fantasy football for nearly two-thirds of my life at this point. Most of that time was spent in redraft circles, but over recent years -- dynasty formats have accounted for a large portion of my leagues. The thrill of dynasty is a bit different from that of your standard redraft league -- you get the option to really see an athlete's career play out. Not all players have that first-year breakout, and while it may be fun to chase upside when drafting on a yearly basis, it can be difficult to pinpoint when exactly said player might contribute to your team. In a dynasty league, however, you're locked into your selection -- for better or worse -- until you decide to move them.

There are obvious pros and cons to both formats. Whiffing on a high first-round rookie-draft selection can set you back a few years -- particularly for rebuilding squads -- but if that player hits, you have fantasy gold for years to come. NFL athletes will always have a relative value in every fantasy format. Still, in dynasty, other factors such as age and collegiate profile offer a kind of "baked-in" insulation. In my experience, the dynasty mindset has shifted over the last few seasons, becoming more of a "day-traders" market. Fantasy gamers are consistently looking to exploit "blow-up" games in an effort to move an asset with a high baked-in value that has underperformed until that point.

While there's always a risk with unproven players, the key is to weigh the risk and reward and make an educated decision. This can be a game-changer for a successful fantasy championship run. The players highlighted below carry a decent amount of risk, but if you can get them on the cheap, they're absolutely worth taking a shot on. If it pans out, the potential reward these players present can transform an above-average fantasy lineup into a prosperous fantasy juggernaut.

Anthony Richardson, QB - Indianapolis Colts

We saw the type of upside Anthony Richardson brings to the table in 2023, albeit in minimal action. In the two games that he participated in the entire contest, he was the QB4 and QB2 on the week. In fact, before suffering a concussion early on in Week 2 against the Houston Texans, he scored just under 18 fantasy points on 32% of snaps -- finishing as the QB19. Unfortunately, Richardson sprained the AC joint in his throwing shoulder in Week 5 -- effectively ending his season.

Nine minutes of Anthony Richardson highlights.

No need to thank us. pic.twitter.com/T0OA1pr3Br

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) January 24, 2024

A-Rich is a consensus top-10 quarterback in dynasty, and acquiring him may not be for the faint of heart -- but the upside is league-winning. A two-full-game sample is of little boon to his outlook, but with his cannon arm and elite mobility, he presents as one of the few QBs with the tools to challenge Josh Allen as the overall QB1 in fantasy.

We can still consider him a raw prospect with the lack of experience under his belt. If you can find a manager who is worried about his injury or who straight-up doesn't believe in the potential he possesses, he's an easy buy. I recommend flipping two generic or mid-late-round firsts for him if that's all it takes. With a breakout season in 2024, he could become untouchable moving forward. Pounce now while you can.

De'Von Achane, RB - Miami Dolphins

De'Von Achane is perhaps the riskiest proposition presented on this list, but one of the best big-play threats in the entire league. Achane is a dynamic runner who has proven lethal in Mike McDaniel's outside zone running scheme, consistently ripping off chunk gains from all over the formation.

I was pleasantly surprised to see Achane's solid vision in my review of his tape, as I expected many of his long gains to be attributed to his speed and the clever scheme of his head coach. It's safe to assume Achane won't average 7.8 yards per carry his entire career, but even if we take out his rushes of 10 or more yards, he clocks in at second best in the league in PlayerProfiler's true yards per carry metric at 6.6.

DEVON ACHANE 67-YARD TD

THE DOLPHINS HAVE 70 POINTS.

📺: #DENvsMIA on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/UQdQ05hqXN pic.twitter.com/bZOSLxVaoa

— NFL (@NFL) September 24, 2023

Achane's RB24 finish in just 11 games is indicative of his efficiency, but his risk of injury is also evident. My main concern with Achane is his diminutive stature -- 5-foot-9 (on a good day), 188 lbs. I have my doubts he can handle a proper "workhorse" role, but he doesn't need that to be effective, and he probably won't be asked to do so. He was used as more of a change-of-pace option in 2023, with Raheem Mostert handling 104 more touches in just four more games -- all of them carries (Achane out-targeted and out-caught Mostert).

The Dolphins even added another head to this backfield monster in the 2024 draft, selecting Jaylen Wright in the fourth round -- another highly explosive athlete. Wright is marginally more stout than Achane, but this proves the Dolphins don't prefer a workhorse and would instead use more of a committee approach.

We've seen plenty of productive committee backs in recent history, such as the likes of Austin Ekeler and Tony Pollard. Achane is the smallest of that bunch and won't catch nearly as many passes as Ekeler had in the past, but he's by far the most explosive of this group and isn't far off of Ekeler's weight. If you're not averse to a potent committee piece, Achane is easily worth a future first-round rookie pick with top-five RB upside in his range of outcomes.

Jameson Williams, WR - Detroit Lions

Jameson Williams' NFL career has kicked off more disappointing than anyone could have predicted. A former first-round pick with blazing speed -- the sky was the limit for Williams, or so we thought. After tearing his ACL in the College Football Playoff National Championship, Williams endured a Grade 2 hamstring strain in the preseason, putting a damper on his development and delaying his NFL debut.

The highly touted prospect appeared in just six games in his rookie season, finishing with more drops (three) than receptions (one). That one catch, however, was a streaking 40-yard TD, and Williams also recorded a 40-yard rush in his limited sample -- highlighting his upside.

Leading up to his sophomore season, the Lions coaching staff expressed that Williams has to "hold his part" and "make sure he's doing everything he has to do" -- leading to some speculation that there was displeasure around his offseason antics. He had more opportunity in 2023 but still did not live up to the lofty expectations set when he was drafted. The emergence of Sam LaPorta did not aid him in the least.

Jameson Williams next season 📈📈 pic.twitter.com/kJLT9gjJdj

— PFF (@PFF) May 25, 2024

Fast-forward to 2024, and head coach Dan Campbell has been singing the praises of Williams as the most improved player in Lions camp. This could just be coach-speak, but I also don't pin Campbell as the type of guy to "pull punches" when speaking toward his players.

Aside from his absurd 4.3 speed, the most enticing thing about Williams at this point is the work he's been putting into elevating his play. "He's a man on a mission," proclaimed Campbell, "and I'm just gonna leave it at that."

This is probably the lowest Williams' price will ever be -- sitting between WR40 and WR50 on most ADP sites -- if he begins to perform better this year. He's an excellent buy-low presently, and if you can acquire him for a third-round rookie pick -- or what projects to be a mid-late-second -- that's an absolute smash trade I would make in every league.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR - Seattle Seahawks

Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the first wideout selected in the 2023 NFL Draft (No. 20 overall), beginning a run of four straight wide receivers. Depending on your expectations of him, you might have been disappointed with the output of his rookie season. His 63 receptions for 628 yards were a solid, respectable first-year contribution, even more so if we consider he missed some time in the preseason with a fractured wrist. He didn't miss a game in the regular season, but any time away from the field can hinder a WR's development -- especially a rookie.

Perhaps the most glaring prohibitor for Smith-Njigba's lack of production comes from his established, star-level teammates D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Even for a prospect like JSN, working past those two in the pecking order is a tall task. The production wasn't there in a sluggish Seattle offense, but it's not due to a lack of talent. JSN is a detailed technician regarding his route running, and he likely works to improve his game in all aspects going into his second season.

Aside from his work against press coverage -- which isn't all that bad -- Smith-Njigba routinely worked open against man and zone, as evidenced by his Reception Perception profile. He was an above-average separator on all but three routes in 2023 -- the corner, go, and slant -- the third of which he still had a strong 73.3% success rate.

While Metcalf and Lockett still stand in the way of him becoming a high-volume target in 2024, no evident reason suggests  Smith-Njigba isn't a long-term play in dynasty. In fact, a new-look Ryan Grubb offense should be a boost for all three wideouts in what projects to be an aggressive, fast-paced scheme.

Kyle Pitts, TE - Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts has been one of the most mercurial and divisive talents since being selected fourth by the Falcons in the 2021 NFL Draft. The development of tight ends is typically not a linear plot, and trusting a rookie TE to produce off the get-go is a tough ask.

Pitts did produce his rookie season, though, and came within 50 yards of tying the all-time yardage record for a rookie TE, set 50 years before that by Mike Ditka (1,076 yards). However, since that rookie season, Pitts has accumulated a paltry 1,023 yards in 27 games. To be cordial, that's some rough production without context, but we need context to be truly informed.

Sure, Pitts has been a letdown the past two seasons, but it's not all on him. Firstly, Pitts suffered a late November MCL tear (Grade 3) in 2022 that was clearly worse than we were led to believe. He wasn't producing much before the injury that year, but that's to be expected with Marcus Mariota playing inefficiently in a run-heavy Arthur Smith offense.

Again in 2023 with Smith at the helm, the Falcons ran the ball a ton -- top-four rushing percentage in the league -- but Pitts still finished second on his team in yards, targets, and touchdowns. Desmond Ridder showed flashes of competency, but overall, he was unremarkable during the season. As per PlayerProfiler, Ridder's 75.5 true passer rating was good for 29th in the league, and his 71.4% catchable pass rate ranked 42nd.

.@kylepitts__’ days until the #NFLDraft 🎱 pic.twitter.com/YFW7WGs4l3

— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) April 18, 2024

However, there's reason to believe Pitts' production will make a complete 360 in 2024. The Falcons spent a lot of money on Kirk Cousins earlier this offseason, and he'll be a stark upgrade over his predecessors in a Falcons uniform. Pitts is still freakishly athletic for his size -- 6-foot-6 -- and projects as the clear No. 2 receiving option on his team at worst.

I've been pounding the table for a Pitts breakout since his impressive rookie season, and this year is no different. He's -- presumably -- fully healthy, and 2024 is as good a time as ever. I'm totally comfortable dropping a 2025 first-round pick for Pitts in a trade -- particularly if you're a contender with a weakness at TE.

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