X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

FFPC Best-Ball Tournament Playoff Strategy and Stacks - Drafting to Win It All

tom brady fantasy football rankings news NFL DFS lineup picks

This is one of the best times to draft for best-ball leagues, especially big tournaments like the FFPC Best Ball Tournament with a $200k prize! Rookies are being overhyped and are still overvalued. A consensus ADP has just started to form into something that will change drastically in a few weeks once training camp and exhibition season begins. This is when veteran best-ball players can take advantage.

You're likely familiar with how a best-ball league works by now but the FFPC Best Ball Tourney is slightly different. A huge tournament like this is essentially broken down into parts like a redraft league. Weeks 1-14 are the regular season where you have to win your league to qualify for the postseason, and that's where the real money comes into play. Then, you have weekly single-elimination tournaments for weeks 15, 16, and 17. In order to win the grand prize, you'll need to survive and advance with a team built for the postseason. The problem is, no waivers, trades, or lineup decisions are allowed so you'll have to do it all upfront.

To borrow a phrase from Farmer Pete, "Week 17 is all that matters." Great advice, so let's put it into action. Stacking is a well-known strategy that boosts your odds in best ball, so I'm going to look at some of the ideal strategies and stacks for championship week to reverse engineer a potentially winning team for the FFPC Best Ball Tournament.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association including Baseball Writer of the Year, Football Writers of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year and many more! Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!

 

Don't Draft a Tight End Early

You want it. You think you need it. A stud tight end at the beginning of your draft to solidify the position and get a big edge. It's not a bad strategy to go for one of the top players at this position in any format because of how shaky it gets beyond tier two, but in a TE-premium format like FFPC, it's almost a necessity.

The problem is that everybody knows this and the ADP shakes out accordingly. The top four tight ends – Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller – are all gone within the first 24 picks in FFPC's Best Ball Tourney. That makes the return on investment minimal and leaves the lower-drafted players as far better value picks.

Drafting a TE early was not a winning strategy in 2021 for FFPC leagues. Kittle and Waller had injury-plagued seasons and wound up being draft busts. Pitts came into the league with much fanfare and was selected as the TE6 pick with an ADP of 42. He ended Week 17 with an 8.8% win rate in FFPC Slim leagues, barely above the average of 8.3%. Kelce had a solid season but finished as the TE4 so that was a big letdown for those who drafted him third overall on average.

Only Andrews paid off and he turned out to be a league-winner in most cases. However, a lot of things conspired to make Andrews so valuable (J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards both tearing their ACL in the preseason, Baltimore's defense being surprisingly atrocious, Tyler Huntley starting multiple games and hyper-focusing on Andrews).

Meanwhile, four of the top six TE win rates by Week 17 came from players drafted outside the top 150.

Win rate data from RotoViz

Rob Gronkowski, who we'll discuss further below, was taken at 135 because of the uncertainty surrounding his playing status (sound familiar?). After Kelce, the rest of the top 10 included discounted veterans like C.J. Uzomah, Jared Cook, and Hunter Henry.

Drafting Kelce or Andrews or Pitts feels like the key to a winning strategy in TE-Premium leagues but it usually isn't. The second tier of TEs filled with guys unlikely to breakout but still being drafted highly such as Dallas Goedert and Mike Gesicki are best ignored. Dalton Schultz was a revelation last year but his draft price has climbed to the point he is hard-pressed to return +EV (expected value).

Who should you draft instead? Let's peek at the current state of TE ADP as of mid-June:

Player Team ADP Pos. ADP Earliest Latest
Travis Kelce KC 5.5 1 2 10
Mark Andrews BAL 10.1 2 7 15
Kyle Pitts ATL 17.6 3 11 24
Darren Waller LV 26.1 4 16 33
George Kittle SF 30.3 5 20 37
Dalton Schultz DAL 46.1 6 33 58
T.J. Hockenson DET 51.5 7 43 65
Dallas Goedert PHI 67.6 8 56 82
Zach Ertz ARI 77.9 9 38 95
Dawson Knox BUF 85.3 10 71 105
Pat Freiermuth PIT 96.2 11 80 114
Rob Gronkowski FA 99 12 85 108
Mike Gesicki MIA 105.3 13 87 128
Irv Smith Jr. MIN 113.2 14 96 125
Cole Kmet CHI 114.8 15 102 127
Albert Okwuegbunam DEN 115.6 16 93 139
Noah Fant SEA 126.2 17 112 135
Robert Tonyan GB 131.5 18 108 151
Hunter Henry NE 134.4 19 96 156
Tyler Higbee LAR 136.5 20 120 157
David Njoku CLE 140 21 123 155
Gerald Everett LAC 141.1 22 131 168
Evan Engram JAC 150 23 122 171
Logan Thomas WAS 157.7 24 120 186
Hayden Hurst CIN 163.7 25 142 187
Austin Hooper TEN 168.6 26 152 200
Brevin Jordan HOU 177.3 27 148 201
Taysom Hill NO 190 28 143 238
C.J. Uzomah NYJ 203.1 29 162 237
Mo Alie-Cox IND 203.7 30 179 239

I don't mind going with Zach Ertz if he falls beyond the 80th pick because the DeAndre Hopkins suspension will play in his favor. Pat Freiermuth, Cole Kmet, and Irv Smith Jr. could all take big leaps this season – I don't mind waiting for any of them as my first tight end paired with another TE with high-scoring upside like Robert Tonyan, David Njoku, or Brevin Jordan.

Final note: Noah Fant was the highest-scoring TE  in Week 17, or championship week for fantasy last year. Gronk, Andrews, and Kelce followed but they were beaten out by Fant. Anthony Firkser scored 11.4 PPR points, and George Kittle had 4.5 that week. Randomness happens. This doesn't mean to just give up and throw darts, it means you should probably take at least three TEs and put the odds in your favor by shooting for the ceiling and looking ahead at the schedule. Let's do just that.

 

Week 17 Matchups to Exploit - Double Stacks Including TE

There are dozens of potential stacks you can exploit in Week 17, but rather than listing off every viable QB-WR  or QB-TE pair, I'll get more detailed and go into the best double stacks. That means either a QB-WR-WR trio of teammates or a QB-WR-TE set. Since we are discussing a TE-premium format and already established that we aren't targeting a TE early, it makes sense that you pair a later-round TE with his quarterback to maximize the benefit in FFPC.

Keep in mind that any of these stacks or others that you opt for should occur naturally at cost. Don't reach more than a round on any player to force a stack because then you're losing out on value.

Tampa Bay Bucs vs Carolina Panthers

Tom Brady + Mike Evans + Cameron Brate

This pick was originally set to be Gronk at his declining ADP in the hopes that he returns. That isn't looking like a great move anymore. Brate is the logical candidate to be the TE1 for Tom Brady now, with only fourth-round pick Cade Otton behind him. Brate's current ADP is 195 overall but you can bet that's going to rocket up shortly. If you want a share of him, the window is now before he becomes essentially undraftable.

Gronk's retirement is just another reason to view Evans as a solid WR1. Plus, it's unlikely Chris Godwin is ready to start the season or close to 100% for much of the first half. He isn't an exciting young receiver but he's a smart pick and possesses arguably the highest floor among top-15 receivers.

Meanwhile, the quarterback who attempted the most passes in the NFL and posted over 5,000 passing yards is being taken as the QB8, making him more than affordable. In the final week, he and the Bucs will face a Carolina team that could be playing under a lame duck coach or even an interim coach if they aren't playoff-bound by then. Brady ended the regular season with 326 yards and three TD at home versus Carolina in 2021 and had a similar performance in 2020 with 341 yards and three TD. He won't hesitate to keep the foot on the gas pedal no matter what the teams' records are by Week 17.

Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons

Kyler Murray + Marquise Brown + Zach Ertz

It's all but official that Kyler Murray will be the highest-paid Cardinal in NFL history. They acquired Hollywood Brown to serve as the WR1 while DeAndre Hopkins serves his suspension, perhaps even beyond. This could be one of the most productive season-long stacks as it is but Week 17 is too enticing to ignore. The Cards face the Falcons, which were a bottom-10 pass defense and could be worse this coming year.

It's tempting to take the ADP discount on Hopkins, but in FFPC leagues I'd much prefer Ertz as a discount TE1. Splitting time between Philadelphia and Arizona in 2021, Ertz wound up as the TE5 in PPR leagues yet his draft price hasn't climbed too much. Now he gets a full offseason to connect with Murray and will see an uptick in targets without Hopkins for six games. The championship-week matchup is just gravy.

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Rodgers + Allen Lazard + Robert Tonyan

After another disappointing playoff exit, Aaron Rodgers is back for more and he'll be without his top wideout from the past several years. Someone has got to inherit Davante Adams' vacated targets and it looks like Lazard is the frontrunner for the main role. He recently signed a one-year tender as a restricted free agent so he is essentially in a contract year again. The opportunity and motivation are there, making him an extremely intriguing pick that can be had outside the top 100 picks.

Tonyan is a forgotten man because he missed most of last season due to injury. He wasn't off to a rocking start, averaging 25.5 yards per game in the five contests he played. That's not what he was drafted for, though. Either he scores double-digit touchdowns or he's a bust. If Tonyan can score 11 times in 2020 while Adams was scoring 18 times, he can do it again without Adams around.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions

Justin Fields + Darnell Mooney + Cole Kmet

It might be a scary prospect to go all-in on the Bears offense but the draft price makes it more palatable. Anyway, Fields doesn't need to be your starter as he's going at QB16, Mooney is being drafted as the WR30, and Kmet is TE15. Fields is the ideal backup quarterback for best-ball because we're less concerned with consistency and more with high weekly ceilings. His rushing ability brings that and his rocket arm can ensure that Mooney is always a home run threat. Mooney averaged 7.1 yards of cushion last year, tied for sixth-highest among all receivers.

Chicago projects to have one of the weakest strengths of schedule ranked 25th according to The Athletic. That culminates with a Week 17 contest with Detroit.  It's debatable how much touchdown upside there is to be had in this game but presumably, both offenses will be better than last season.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

Trevor Lawrence + Evan Engram + Marvin Jones

The best part of this stack is that you don't have to invest in an early QB/WR pair and we're putting a pass-catching tight end that is available at pick 150. Whether you believe Engram going to Jacksonville is a positive or not, the risk is negligible here. This team doesn't have a true alpha receiver and now has a coach in Doug Pederson who oversaw the best years of Zach Ertz's career in Philly.

The reason I've selected Jones instead of Christian Kirk is draft cost and projected EV. Kirk was signed to a boatload of money to serve as the primary slot receiver and may well lead the team in receiving. However, I don't anticipate it to be by a big margin and neither does PFF. They have Kirk finishing with 71.6 receptions, 910 yards, and 5.7 TD, good for 197.3 PPR points. Marvin Jones is projected for 66.4 receptions, 840 yards, and 5.8 TD, totaling 185.4 fantasy points. Kirk is being drafted as WR42 in round 9 on average while Marvin Jones is WR75 and selected in round 16.

Engram is the type of TE we want, Lawrence is a low-risk QB2 that can be taken past round 10, and Jones is a late-round flier being taken even after recently-retired Robbie Anderson. The final week matchup with the Texans is also preceded by a Week 16 matchup with the Jets, making this combo enticing for an endgame scenario.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!




Win Big With RotoBaller

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

More Fantasy Football Analysis




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Daniel Bard23 mins ago

Still Off Monday
Blake Sabol33 mins ago

Made "Fantastic Impression" This Spring
Anthony Rendon42 mins ago

On Fire This Spring
Tyler Anderson49 mins ago

Wraps Up Strong Spring Monday
Miguel Rojas56 mins ago

' Two-Strike Approach Leading To Success
Akil Baddoo1 hour ago

Optioned To Triple-A Toledo Monday
Zach McKinstry1 hour ago

Tigers Acquire Zach McKinstry Monday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander2 hours ago

Questionable Versus Charlotte
Ja Morant2 hours ago

Doubtful Versus Orlando
Terry Rozier3 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday Evening
Gordon Hayward3 hours ago

Unlikely To Play Against OKC
Daniel Gafford3 hours ago

Dealing With A Sore Foot
Kyle Palmieri3 hours ago

Records Three Points Monday
Monte Morris3 hours ago

Uncertain For Tuesday Night
Kyle Kuzma3 hours ago

Remains Out Versus Boston
Triston McKenzie3 hours ago

Could Be Out Up To Eight Weeks
Gustav Forsling3 hours ago

Scores Twice Despite Florida Loss
Bradley Beal3 hours ago

Sidelined Again On Tuesday
Nico Hoerner3 hours ago

Cubs, Nico Hoerner Agree On Three-Year Extension
Brady Tkachuk3 hours ago

Logs Two Points In Ottawa Win
New England Patriots3 hours ago

Jerod Mayo To Be Bill Belichick's Successor?
Buffalo Bills4 hours ago

Taylor Rapp Signs One-Year Deal With Bills
Jarrett Stidham4 hours ago

Broncos Think Jarrett Stidham Has Starting Potential
Gardner Minshew4 hours ago

To Compete For Starting Job
Mac Jones4 hours ago

Not Guaranteed To Start In 2023
Samaje Perine4 hours ago

Could Fill In As Starter
Justin Herbert4 hours ago

Chargers Confident They'll Keep Justin Herbert Long Term
Joe Musgrove5 hours ago

Throws In B Game Monday
Michael Brantley5 hours ago

Timeline Moved Back
Jose Altuve5 hours ago

Could Go On 60-Day Injured List
Christopher Morel5 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Ezekiel Elliott6 hours ago

Cowboys Open To Re-Signing Ezekiel Elliott
Rashod Bateman6 hours ago

Will Be Running In Three Weeks
Odell Beckham Jr.6 hours ago

Giants Open To Reunion With Odell Beckham Jr.
Saquon Barkley6 hours ago

Giants Hopeful Of Long-Term Extension With Saquon Barkley
Lamar Jackson6 hours ago

Commanders Won't Pursue Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson6 hours ago

Colts Pursuing Lamar Jackson?
Aaron Rodgers6 hours ago

No Timeline On Aaron Rodgers Trade
Jalen Hurts6 hours ago

Eagles Want To Get Extension Done With Jalen Hurts Soon
Fernando Tatis Jr.6 hours ago

Could Serve As Leadoff Man
Maxi Kleber7 hours ago

Questionable On Monday
Jrue Holiday7 hours ago

Ruled Out Monday
Logan O'Hoppe7 hours ago

Makes Opening Day Roster
Max Stassi7 hours ago

Jared Walsh, Max Stassi Opening On The Injured List
Marcus Morris7 hours ago

Sr. Sitting Out On Monday
Trevor May7 hours ago

Jeurys Familia, Dany Jimenez Options For Saves
Karl-Anthony Towns7 hours ago

To Sit Out On Monday
Triston McKenzie7 hours ago

Undergoes MRI Exam
Tyrese Haliburton7 hours ago

Won't Play On Monday
Myles Turner7 hours ago

Unavailable On Monday
Kyle Wright7 hours ago

Officially Placed On Injured List
Brice Turang7 hours ago

Makes Opening Day Roster
Chad Pinder7 hours ago

Signs Minor-League Deal With Nationals
Reilly Smith7 hours ago

Ruled Out For At Least Three Games
Erik Gudbranson8 hours ago

Won't Return This Season
Todd Gilliland8 hours ago

Impressive At COTA
Ville Husso8 hours ago

Could Be Done For The Season
Ty Gibbs8 hours ago

Finds His Footing At COTA
Robby Fabbri8 hours ago

Likely Finished For The Season
Detroit Lions8 hours ago

Calais Campbell To Meet With Lions
Troy Terry8 hours ago

Sits Out Monday's Game
Chris Buescher8 hours ago

Continues To Shine On Road Courses
Bryan Edwards8 hours ago

Joins Saints
Frank Vatrano8 hours ago

Returns To Ducks Lineup
NASCAR8 hours ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Finishes Seventh
DeAndre Hopkins8 hours ago

Deandre Hopkins Granted Permission To Seek Trade
Tage Thompson8 hours ago

A Game-Time Call For Monday
Brandon Aiyuk8 hours ago

49ers Planning To Exercise Brandon Aiyuk's Option
Brock Purdy9 hours ago

Viewed As Starter
Austin Cindric9 hours ago

Has A Solid Day
Lamar Jackson9 hours ago

Requests Trade
Jonas Johansson9 hours ago

Tends Twine Monday In Anaheim
Sergei Bobrovsky9 hours ago

In Goal Monday Against Ottawa
Ilya Sorokin9 hours ago

Starting Monday
John Gibson10 hours ago

Minds The Crease For Ducks Monday
Marc-Andre Fleury10 hours ago

Protects The Crease Versus Seattle
Buddy Hield10 hours ago

Listed As Out For Monday
Jake Allen10 hours ago

Between The Pipes Against Buffalo
Luka Doncic10 hours ago

Available On Monday
Giannis Antetokounmpo10 hours ago

To Sit Out On Monday
De'Aaron Fox10 hours ago

Available On Monday
Joel Embiid10 hours ago

Won't Suit Up Versus Nuggets
James Harden10 hours ago

On Track To Play Monday
Marlon Vera13 hours ago

Has Four-Fight Winning Streak Snapped
Cory Sandhagen13 hours ago

Dominates Striking Department
Yana Santos13 hours ago

Dominated In Decision Loss
Holly Holm13 hours ago

Dominates In Co-Main Event
Austin Lingo13 hours ago

Suffers Submission Loss
Nate Landwehr13 hours ago

Shines With Second-Round Submission Win
Andrea Lee13 hours ago

Suffers Defeat In Close Matchup Saturday
Maycee Barber13 hours ago

Takes Close Matchup On Saturday
Chidi Njokuani13 hours ago

Takes Close Loss In Split-Decision Showing
Albert Duraev14 hours ago

Holds Off Opponent In Tight Split Decision
Mikal Bridges15 hours ago

Goes Off For 44 Points Sunday
Viktor Arvidsson16 hours ago

Continues Scoring Surge Versus Blues
Tyson Barrie16 hours ago

Stays Hot With Two Points
William Byron17 hours ago

Rounds Out Top Five At COTA
John Tavares17 hours ago

Has A Three-Point Night Versus Nashville
Ross Chastain17 hours ago

Caught Up To Fourth At COTA On Sunday
Clayton Keller17 hours ago

Stretches Point Streak To 12 Games
Alex Bowman17 hours ago

Brings Home Third Place Finish At COTA
Kyle Busch17 hours ago

Scrambles Up To Second At Austin
Mikko Rantanen17 hours ago

Adds Two Points To His Tally
Tyler Reddick17 hours ago

Dominates And Wins At COTA
Jordan Taylor2 days ago

Making NASCAR Debut At COTA, Will Start 4th
Austin Cindric2 days ago

Excited To Showcase Speed At COTA This Weekend
Austin Dillon2 days ago

Starts 28th At COTA For Sunday
Ricky Stenhouse Jr2 days ago

. In Middle Of Pack For COTA
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Rough Patch In Qualifying On Saturday
Kyle Busch2 days ago

Starts Ninth For COTA Race On Sunday
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Could Be A Wildcard On Sunday
Noah Gragson2 days ago

Finds Way To Qualify 10th At COTA
Brad Keselowski2 days ago

A Few Seconds Off the COTA Pace
Ryan Blaney2 days ago

Begins 38th For Sunday's Race At COTA
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Just A Little Off At COTA On Saturday
Cory Sandhagen4 days ago

Can Earn Back-To-Back Victories
Marlon Vera4 days ago

Finds Himself In Main-Event Spotlight Saturday
Yana Santos4 days ago

Looking For Biggest UFC Win Of Her Career
Holly Holm4 days ago

Seeking First Victory Since 2020
Austin Lingo4 days ago

On Verge Of Three-Fight Winning Streak
Nate Landwehr4 days ago

Hoping For Third Straight Strong Performance
Maycee Barber5 days ago

Can Continue Her Flyweight Ascent
Andrea Lee5 days ago

In Need Of Victory To Keep Momentum Going
MMA5 days ago

Manel Kape On The Hunt For Fourth Straight Victory Saturday
Alex Perez5 days ago

Seeking First Victory Since 2020
Albert Duraev5 days ago

Can Rebound With A Victory
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF