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Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Week 11 Matchups Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 11 matchups analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. Last week featured a combination of massive performances with some real duds. It also included six walkoff game-winning field goals, which made for an exciting slate. After managing without three of the top offenses, we lose the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots, and Indianapolis Colts to their bye this week. It certainly doesn't hurt like Week 10, but there's still a handful of critical players missing, especially in the backfield.

For anyone new to the column, each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate and the Monday Night Football game, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. Additionally, you'll notice some players are obvious starts included in the "matchups we love" section in the interest of making sure everyone is covered. Furthermore, there will be times when one wide receiver or running back is listed individually but their teammates are included in the write-up. I also want to express my gratitude for some of the great resources that help me write this article each week such as RotoBaller's player pages, rbsdm, Pro Football Focus, Rotovitz, FTN Fantasy, Fantasy Life, Pro Football Reference, NFL Next Gen Stats, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Fantasy Points, along with all of you for reading this article.

There is also a separate article for the Thursday Night Football game each week, so be sure to read that. Hopefully, your roster had enough of those spike weeks to get the win. Regardless of how Week 10 treated you, Week 11 is a chance for a fresh start. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter/X @JoshCon, and feel free to ask away. Let's dive into the matchups.

Featured Promo: Get any full-season NFL and DFS Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our Team Sync platform, Premium articles, Matchup Rating projections, 15 lineup tools, DFS cheat sheets, Research Stations, Lineup Optimizers and much more! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Cowboys -10.5
Implied Total: Cowboys (26.5) vs. Panthers (16)
Pace: Cowboys (27th) vs. Panthers (7th)
Cowboys Off. DVOA: 23.9% Pass (11th), -10.6% Rush (21st)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -20.6% Pass (31st), -24.3% Rush (30th)
Cowboys Def. DVOA:
-8.6% Pass (5th), -17.9% Rush (8th)
Panthers Def. DVOA: 6.2% Pass (16th), 11.1% Rush (31st)

Matchups We Love:

Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)

The Cowboys trounced the Giants. It was like watching teams compete from different leagues. Not only did Prescott throw and rush for a touchdown as part of their 28-0 halftime lead, he continued to play and throw well into to the third quarter, tossing two more touchdowns. It was borderline shocking to see them still airing it out up 35-7, but everyone who started Prescott and the receiving options is grateful. It ought to be much of the same this week against the last-place Panthers.

CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)

Lamb went 11 for 151 and one as a receiver, adding another score as a runner. He's now caught at least 10 passes for 150-plus yards in three straight weeks. The 404 passing yards from Prescott also allowed Brandin Cooks to go off with nine grabs for 173 yards and a score, while Michael Gallup found the end zone on one of his two catches. Chasing Gallup is risky, but Cooks deserves consideration as a top-36 wideout.

Cowboys RBs

It should've been a great day for Tony Pollard. Yet, it wasn't. That's been the theme all year since Week 1. All the offseason chatter from head coach Mike McCarthy about playing defense and bleeding the clock seems fraudulent at this point. They're currently 11th in passing attempts averaging 35.2 passing attempts per game compared to 32.9 in 2022. It makes sense given their personnel. What doesn't make sense is Pollard's involvement as a pass-catcher. He has just six targets and four receptions over the past three weeks. He also had zero carries inside the five the previous two weeks before seeing three against the Giants, none of which he converted. Rico Dowdle inevitably took over for cleanup duty, and much to the chagrin of Pollard managers, he found the end zone. It's another fantastic matchup and situation, but putting Pollard back out there will require some courage if you have other quality options. Meanwhile, Dowdle is a flex play because he should see a decent workload again.

UPDATE: Dowdle will be active, with a chance that Deuce Vaughn sees some work.

Matchups We Hate:

Panthers Players

Is Bryce Young better than Tommy Devito? Yes. Are the Panthers more competent as an offense than the Giants are? Yes. Does that mean we can expect success from their players for fantasy? No. We saw them struggle last Thursday against the Bears, which makes trusting anyone outside maybe Adam Thielen nearly impossible. Even the once-reliable Thielen has become more of a top-36 receiver with a lower ceiling. Chuba Hubbard will be the lead back, but unless he sees four or more receptions during comeback mode, it'll be a disappointing day.

Other Matchups:

Jake Ferguson (TE, DAL)

Ferguson got in on the action as well with a one-yard touchdown reception. Like Gallup, he's a little riskier because he's firmly behind Lamb and a little behind Cooks, but as tight ends go, he's in the top 10 still.

Injuries:

Hayden Hurst (concussion)

 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Browns -1.5
Implied Total: Steelers (15.75) vs. Browns (17.25)
Pace: Steelers (12th) vs. Browns (16th)
Steelers Off. DVOA: 7.1% Pass (20th), -2.8% Rush (12th)
Browns Off. DVOA: -10.4% Pass (28th), -8.9% Rush (20th)
Steelers Def. DVOA:
-4.9% Pass (8th), -10.8% Rush (17th)
Browns Def. DVOA: -31.9% Pass (1st), -30.1% Rush (1st)

Matchups We Love:

None

Matchups We Hate:

Steelers Passing Attack 

This matchup has the makings of a low-scoring slugfest. After losing to the Jaguars, the Steelers have knocked off the Titans and Packers by limiting Kenny Pickett to 30 and 23 passing attempts, respectively. He's also maxed out at 160 passing yards during the past two weeks. The recipe for success is leaning on their rushing attack, especially against a defense like Cleveland. Neither Diontae Johnson nor George Pickens did well in Week 10, earning just four targets a piece. Pat Freiermuth returned to practice and is on track to make his return, but he's a risky tight end. Johnson is still the preferred option, but he falls outside the top 24.

UPDATE: Freiermuth is good to go for Sunday, but not a great option.

Other Matchups:

Jerome Ford (RB, CLE)

Both of Cleveland's backs were successful last week against a stout Ravens defense. Jerome Ford ran the ball well, averaging the fourth-most rushing yards over expected per attempt on the week at 2.38. He also totaled over 100 scrimmage yards while Kareem Hunt found the end zone yet again. It's another divisional matchup this week against Pittsburgh, who has a similar identity of running the ball and playing defense. Losing Deshaun Watson lowers the overall offensive output, but it means these two are likely to maintain a heavy workload, including some checkdowns from Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who will be dealing with the pass rush from T.J. Watt and Co. Ford slots in as a top-24 back with Hunt as a flex option.

Steelers RBs

Jaylen Warren's role is growing as we all hoped it would. In Week 10, there was a near-even split in snaps, touches, and targets between him and Najee Harris. They both saw 15-plus carries and found the end zone, accounting for 206 of the 324 total yards (64%) the offense had. Head coach Mike Tomlin commented on the situation, explaining Warren was named the starter to the locker room on Sunday and the split was where they were at last week. The situation remains fluid and the committee will persist, but the usage keeps both in play, even in a terrible matchup.

Amari Cooper (WR, CLE)

We only have a one-game sample size from Thompson-Robinson and it wasn't pretty. He threw three picks, completed 52.8% of his passes, and compiled just 121 passing yards. It was against the Ravens, who have an elite defense, but it's a massive downgrade for Cooper. He's still viable because he's the clear No. 1 option, but his ceiling drops significantly, while Elijah Moore moves back to the bench.

David Njoku (TE, CLE)

It's not good news for Njoku either, but he was heavily targeted in that one start with six catches for 46 yards. He drops into the streaming tier.

Injuries:

Deshaun Watson (shoulder)

 

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -7.5
Implied Total: Bears (20.25) vs. Lions (27.75)
Pace: Bears (23rd) vs. Lions (29th)
Bears Off. DVOA: -3.1% Pass (24th), -2.5% Rush (10th)
Lions Off. DVOA: 36.9% Pass (6th), 5.0% Rush (5th)
Bears Def. DVOA:
26.5% Pass (29th), -18.3% Rush (6th)
Lions Def. DVOA: 0.1% Pass (10th), -15.1% Rush (11th)

Matchups We Love:

Jared Goff (QB, DET)

Goff lit up the Chargers on the road with one of those game-ending field goals to cap it off. He was able to lead his offense to 41 points and keep pace with Justin Herbert. Now he gets the Bears, back at Ford Field, where we know he's deadly.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)

St. Brown did his damage on lower volume last week with only nine targets, but he caught eight of those, averaging 19.5 yards per reception with a score. He's on fire. After him, it remains a bit of a crapshoot between Kalif Raymond, Jameson Williams, and Josh Reynolds. Reynolds ran the most routes but no one had more than four targets. None of them are great starts, especially with Donovan Peoples-Jones making his debut, but the favorite would be Williams, who had a touchdown called back on a penalty and possesses the most upside.

Lions RBs

A duo that is great is David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, who combined for 29 touches, 228 yards, and three touchdowns. They destroyed the Los Angeles defense. Gibbs earned five targets and scored twice while Montgomery ripped off a huge 75-yard run to the house. Both are strong top-20 backs with Gibbs as the favorite.

Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)

LaPorta was one of the few Lions not to produce. His five targets weren't too bad but the touchdown going to Brock Wright, their backup tight end, stings a little. The distribution to four receivers, two backs, and LaPorta makes it tricky for everyone to be dependable. That being said, the Bears present a great matchup, keeping him in the top 10.

Matchups We Hate:

Bears RBs

D'Onta Foreman dominated the Panthers, finding the end zone in a game full of field goals. Unfortunately, things are about to get more complicated. With Justin Fields set to take over for Tyson Bagent, there will be fewer total opportunities available because Fields is more inclined to run and throw downfield. Furthermore, Khalil Herbert practiced in full on Thursday, signaling he's probable to suit up on Sunday. In his first week back, he'll likely slot in behind Foreman, but the number of backs involved now with those two plus at least Roschon Johnson, if not Darrynton Evans, is too many to feel confident in Foreman. He's a risky flex option given the tough matchup and committee.

UPDATE: Herbert has been active and will play as expected. Foreman is the best option this week, but he isn't a great choice.

Other Matchups:

DJ Moore (WR, CHI)

It was a ho-hum day for the primary weapons, namely DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. They each had five catches for about 50 yards, and that was against a very subpar defense. The good news is that Justin Fields will make his return to the field. The Lions are more susceptible through the air, and Moore was playing at a high level with Fields under center. Moore moves back into the top 24.

Cole Kmet (TE, CHI)

As we wrote about above, Fields will be back, which provides a better outlook for the passing options, including Kmet, who remains an intriguing streamer.

Justin Fields (QB, CHI)

There's no doubt about what Fields brings to the table in terms of fantasy. His rushing output is among the elite, and he's willing to take deep shots while hyper-targeting Moore. The last time we saw him in action he threw four touchdowns in back-to-back weeks. There may be a settling-in period, but he's back in the top 12.

Injuries:

None

 

Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Chargers -3.0
Implied Total: Chargers (23.5) vs. Packers (20.5)
Pace: Chargers (2nd) vs. Packers (10th)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 34.8% Pass (7th), -11.3% Rush (22nd)
Packers Off. DVOA: 18.4% Pass (13th), -17.4% Rush (25th)
Chargers Def. DVOA:
16.2% Pass (25th), -2.9% Rush (24th)
Packers Def. DVOA: 13.9% Pass (21st), -3.2% Rush (22nd)

Matchups We Love:

Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)

The way the Chargers consistently find a way to lose close games is an indictement on the coaching staff. Herbert did everything he could to will his team to victory, tossing four touchdowns with 323 passing yards. He even made players like Jalen Guyton and Quentin Johnston look good, finding them for scores. Fortunately, he gets a chance to bounce back against the lowly Packers, whose only win in their past six outings was against the Brett Rypien-led Rams. It probably won't be as fruitful a day for fantasy because they'll be able to win easily, but he's still among the elite signal-callers.

Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)

Ekeler struggled to find room as a runner, averaging just 0.05 rushing yards over expected per attempt against the stout Detroit defense. However, he found pay dirt and was excellent as a receiver, hauling in four catches for 48 yards on seven targets. Green Bay is an amazing matchup for running backs, ranking 18th in yards per attempt allowed, 22nd in rush defense DVOA, and 25th in EPA per rush allowed. Ekeler could finish as the RB1 this week.

Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)

The receiver we didn't mention above was Allen, who blew up for 11 receptions, 175 yards, and two scores. It was awesome to see after some mediocre outings, at least by his standards. He's locked in, but it's not wise to chase Guyton and Johnston in this one given the matchup is so good on the ground.

UPDATE: Allen is active as expected.

Matchups We Hate:

Chargers TEs

Herbert threw the ball 40 times, but only four of those (10%) went to the tight end position. Split that between Gerald Everett and Donald Parham Jr., and it's a recipe for failure. There is a chance Everett is absent though because he's missed two consecutive practices.

UPDATE: Everett has been ruled out, which does give a little more intrigue to Parham Jr., but only because of his touchdown prowess.

Other Matchups:

Aaron Jones (RB, GB)

Jones was a focal point in the passing attack with four receptions. It's critical to his value because he's still sharing the workload with A.J. Dillon, edging him 17-10 in touches last week. It's shaping up to be a battle of running backs here as the Chargers are also a great matchup, ranking 16th in rushing yards per attempt allowed, 20th in EPA per rush allowed, and 24th in run defense DVOA. Jones is inside the top 20 with Dillon as a potential flex option.

Luke Musgrave (TE, GB)

Not only did Jordan Love throw the ball to eight different players, but they all had at least three targets. Musgrave made the most of his with 36 and 28-yard grabs, but it's hard to trust him as more than a streamer, despite the great matchup against Los Angeles.

Packers WRs

It's a similar story here, except at a much deeper position. Christian Watson led the team with seven targets, but once again caught just two. Romeo Doubs found the end zone for the sixth time, Jayden Reed hauled in a 35-yard touchdown strike totaling 84 yards, and Dontayvion Wicks unnecessarily took away volume. They're likely to be trailing, creating sufficient volume for someone to come through. Reed is the most talented with a comparable targets per route run of 19% and the highest yards per route run at 1.88, so he's the best bet. However, he's a flex option along with Watson and to a lesser extent Doubs.

Injuries:

Joshua Palmer (knee)
Gerald Everett (back)
Keenan Allen (shoulder)

 

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans

Spread: Texans -6.0
Implied Total: Cardinals (21) vs. Texans (27)
Pace: Cardinals (4th) vs. Texans (5th)
Cardinals Off. DVOA: -6.8% Pass (26th), -2.1% Rush (9th)
Texans Off. DVOA: 47.9% Pass (2nd), -21.7% Rush (28th)
Cardinals Def. DVOA:
29.1% Pass (30th), 1.5% Rush (28th)
Texans Def. DVOA: 13.3% Pass (20th), -13.3% Rush (13th)

Matchups We Love:

C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU)

Stroud put forth another masterful performance, upsetting Cincinnati on the road. He threw for 356 yards and found the end zone twice while averaging 9.1 yards per attempt. He was slinging it. He gets an even better matchup this week against the Cardinals, at home this time, thrusting him into the top 10.

Texans WRs

Houston appears to have four legitimate wide receivers to deploy each week, but we've yet to see all of them active at the same time. For most of the season, Noah Brown was inactive, enabling Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and sometimes Robert Woods to thrive. Last week, Collins was out, resulting in a solid outing from Dell and a huge day for Brown, who caught seven receptions for 172 yards. We knew it was a good spot to chase this group, but no one expected that level of production from Brown. The roulette wheel continues this week with Brown as the one trending towards missing while Collins has returned to practice, so we'll see what Friday brings for this group. Currently, it looks like Dell and Collins would be top-24 receivers with Woods as a low-upside flex option if Brown is out.

UPDATE: Brown has been ruled out for Sunday, opening the door for Dell and Collins. Woods gets a slight bump as well.

Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)

Murray's debut was encouraging. The offense looked way more functional and his mobility was impressive. On one particular scramble, he covered about 70 yards to gain 13. He was escaping pressure, eluding defenders in the pocket, and added a rushing baseline with six carries for 33 yards and a touchdown. Houston has worked hard to become better at stopping the run, plus they're throwing so much that other teams need to air it out to keep pace. It makes Murray a solid top-12 quarterback.

Trey McBride (TE, ARI)

The transition to Murray was seamless for McBride, who dominated with eight grabs for 131 yards. He's earned a spot among the upper-echelon tight ends right now in the top 10.

James Conner (RB, ARI)

Houston has improved their run defense, but they're still giving up 1.2 touchdowns per game, which ranks 27th. While Conner wasn't spectacular against Atlanta, he handled 16 of the 19 (84%) RB carries. Clayton Tune came in to steal a goal-line attempt, but typically those will go to Conner. The other area where there's room for improvement is in the passing attack. Conner is well-known for his receiving ability but finished with zero targets last week. That number is all but guaranteed to go up. He's a top-20 back.

Matchups We Hate:

None

Other Matchups:

Devin Singletary (RB, HOU)

After a subpar outing in his first opportunity as the lead back, Singletary crushed the Bengals last week to the tune of 150 rushing yards and a touchdown. It was a career-high in rushing yards. Dameon Pierce has yet to practice this week, so in a great matchup, Singletary would be an upside top-24 back given the number of scoring drives this offense is generating.

UPDATE: Pierce has been ruled out, making Singletary a top-24 back.

Dalton Schultz (TE, HOU)

Schultz was back at it again with four receptions for 71 yards. Arizona has become a difficult matchup for tight ends, but Schultz is such a focal point of the offense that it's hard to move off of him. He's a solid streamer, bordering on a top-12 option.

Cardinals WRs

McBride accounted for 131 of Murray's 249 (53%) passing yards, leaving very little for Marquise Brown, Michael Wilson, and Rondale Moore. Moore led the way in terms of targets, receptions, and yards but none of them were productive. Brown still deserves to be viewed as the No. 1 receiver, but there are a lot of players involved in a passing attack that is still returning to form. He's a top-36 receiver with Moore and Wilson as flex options.

UPDATE: Wilson has been ruled out, so Moore becomes more interesting.

Injuries:

Zach Ertz (quad)
Emari Demercado (toe)
Dameon Pierce (ankle)
Michael Wilson (shoulder)
Noah Brown (knee)

 

Tenessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Jaguars -7.0
Implied Total: Titans (16.25) vs. Jaguars (23.25)
Pace: Titans (26th) vs. Jaguars (17th)
Titans Off. DVOA: 2.1% Pass (22nd), -2.9% Rush (13th)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: 16.8% Pass (15th), -12.4% Rush (24th)
Titans Def. DVOA:
17.8% Pass (27th), -19.4% Rush (4th)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: -7.1% Pass (6th), -21.1% Rush (3rd)

Matchups We Love:

Christian Kirk (WR, JAX)

Jacksonville was overwhelmed by the 49ers, particularly by their defense. They finished with three points and 221 yards of offense. Despite the negative game script, Trevor Lawrence only attempted 29 passes, limiting the output for the receiving options. Kirk went right back to his superior volume, earning 11 targets, which he turned into six grabs for 104 yards. Unfortunately, Calvin Ridley earned just three. Ridley has now hit 50 receiving yards four times in nine games, including once in the past four weeks. The boom-bust nature of his involvement makes him hard to trust, even in a plus matchup, especially if Zay Jones, who has been practicing in a limited fashion, is active.

UPDATE: Jones is listed as questionable for Sunday. Kirk is the only wideout to start here.

Evan Engram (TE, JAX)

The production didn't come against the 49ers, but Engram has seven-plus targets in every game outside of Week 1. He ranks third among all tight ends in targets, locking him into your lineup.

Matchups We Hate:

Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)

Henry goes from one tough run defense to another. The Jaguars ranked 13th in defensive EPA per rush, eighth in rushing yards per attempt allowed, and third in rush defense DVOA. Add in the ugly play of Will Levis and Tyjae Spears taking away work, and it's not a good outlook for Henry. The same issue of falling behind and needing to throw more hurt Henry, both because he saw fewer carries, and because Spears gets the receiving work. The most probable outcome is another losing effort against Jacksonville, dropping Henry outside of the top 20 while Spears, as the pass-catcher, becomes a flex option.

Titans Passing Attack 

Levis completed 48.7% of his passes for 199 yards and an interception without a touchdown. He also took four sacks on 13 QB hits against Tampa Bay, who had just five on the season entering their contest. It led to a frustrating day for DeAndre Hopkins, who led the team in targets (eight) but totaled just 27 receiving yards. Hopkins becomes a top-36 receiver with a lower ceiling.

Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)

Lawrence fell flat on his face at home hosting San Francisco. He committed three turnovers and took five sacks. It's a much better spot this week when the Titans come to town, but his ceiling hasn't been there all year, so it's wise to look to a streamer with more upside.

Other Matchups:

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, JAX)

Like Henry, Etienne Jr. has his difficult matchup to deal with. However, we can count on his workload and role regardless of the game script, as evidenced by his four targets. The game was over quickly last week, while this one figures to be a bounce-back spot for Etienne and the offense, pushing him back into the top 12. It's also worth noting that coming out of the bye, D'Ernest Johnson played two more snaps and saw one more touch than Tank Bigsby. We don't want to draw conclusions after one game but Bigsby is widely viewed as the insurance back for Etienne so it's a situation to monitor moving forward.

Injuries:

Treylon Burks (concussion)
Zay Jones (knee)

 

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins -13.5
Implied Total: Raiders (16.25) vs. Dolphins (29.75)
Pace: Raiders (20th) vs. Dolphins (19th)
Raiders Off. DVOA: -12.1% Pass (29th), -20.0% Rush (27th)
Dolphins Off. DVOA: 43.1% Pass (4th), 23.8% Rush (2nd)
Raiders Def. DVOA:
5.3% Pass (15th), -1.4% Rush (27th)
Dolphins Def. DVOA: 10.3% Pass (17th), -1.6% Rush (26th)

Matchups We Love:

Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)

The bye week came at the perfect time for the Dolphins, who were really struggling to generate offense against the Chiefs in Week 9. Tagovailoa will have his full complement of weapons and should be able to take advantage against the Raiders for a big game.

Dolphins WRs

Tyreek Hill can carry the offense to a degree, but a healthy Jaylen Waddle makes this team so much more explosive and dangerous. They're both must-starts now that Waddle is healthy and off the injury report.

Dolphins RBs

We'll get our first look at the backfield with all four players healthy and available. De'Von Achane is set to come off the Injured Reserve list and join Raheem Mostert as the co-starter. Meanwhile, Jeff Wilson Jr. and Salvon Ahmed were playing complementary roles, competing for touches. It's a nice matchup where Miami could easily win by double-digit points, so both Achane and Mostert are top-24 backs with the edge to Achane because of his home run potential.

UPDATE: Achane has been activated from Injured Reserve and will return against the Raiders.

Matchups We Hate:

None

Other Matchups:

Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)

The combination of Antonio Pierce as the coach and Aidan O'Connell as the quarterback has led to two straight wins. However, beating both New York teams is hardly something to brag about. They continue to limit O'Connell, who threw an untimely interception and almost lost a fumble. As a result, Jacobs pounded the rock 27 times for 116 yards but did not find the end zone and lost a fumble. We'll see how they handle facing a superior opponent, but Jacobs can excel as a receiver, so he'll be a volume-based top-12 back.

Davante Adams (WR, LV)

It was a better outing for Adams, who earned a 48% target share. Unfortunately, he only caught six passes, but 86 yards was nice to see. He's not quite back to the elite status we're used to, but certainly proved himself trustworthy from a volume standpoint. The primary concern is that O'Connell could crumble against the Dolphins and Adams will need to overcome a matchup with Jalen Ramsey.

Injuries:

None

 

New York Giants at Washington Commanders

Spread: Commanders -8.5
Implied Total: Giants (14.5) vs. Commanders (23)
Pace: Giants (15th) vs. Commanders (18th)
Giants Off. DVOA: -30.2% Pass (32nd), -27.4% Rush (32nd)
Commanders Off. DVOA: -3.5% Pass (25th), -1.8% Rush (8th)
Giants Def. DVOA:
16.7% Pass (26th), 2.0% Rush (30th)
Commanders Def. DVOA: 29.8% Pass (31st), -15.3% Rush (10th)

Matchups We Love:

Sam Howell (QB, WAS)

Howell passed the ball another 44 times for 312 yards and three scores. He leads the league in passing attempts (397) and passing yards (2,783) while sitting tied for third in passing touchdowns (17). It's worth mentioning that he's yet to have a bye week, but those numbers are extremely impressive. The volume plus the matchup makes him a top-12 signal caller.

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB, WAS)

The concern for Robinson Jr. was that the Commanders would fall behind and throw to Antonio Gibson, limiting his upside as a receiver. The game was close the entire time, and while they did throw to Gibson six times, Robinson also had six receptions for 119 yards and a score. Not all the throws were designed to go Robinson, but 12 targets to the backfield means both are worthy starts given the Commanders rank third in pass rate over expectation. Gibson has missed two consecutive practices, which could mean Robinson gets the backfield all to himself. He'd skyrocket into the top 15 if Gibson is out.

UPDATE: Gibson is listed as doubtful for Sunday, which means he's all but guaranteed to be inactive.

Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)

The widespread distribution continued with 11 different players earning a target, including five different wide receivers. It's becoming eerily reminiscent of the Chiefs, who we know rotate their wideouts in and out during the game. Furthermore, Jahan Dotson played the most snaps and ran the most routes, but finished with zero catches. It's impossible to get excited about anyone outside of McLaurin, who earned the most targets and played the second-most snaps.

Matchups We Hate:

Giants Passing Attack 

New York has named Tommy Devito as their starter for Week 11, which means their quest for a top-three NFL draft pick continues. They were never going to have success against Dallas, and while the odds are a little higher against Washington, it's difficult to identify someone to pursue. 10 different players were targeted and none had more than three receptions. It's another week of avoiding this group.

Other Matchups:

Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)

Barkley did all he could, but his fantasy value is sinking. He did alright on the ground with 13 carries for 66 yards, but hauled in just one pass for a five-yard loss. He's still a top-24 back because of the volume and a better matchup, but it's a sad state of affairs in New York.

Logan Thomas (TE, WAS)

As tight ends go, five receptions for 40 yards is enough to warrant streamer consideration. It's just hard to trust the volume with so many mouths to feed.

Injuries:

Darren Waller (hamstring)
Tyrod Taylor (ribs)
Antonio Gibson (toe)

 

Matchup Analysis - 4:25 ET Games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -12.0
Implied Total: Buccaneers (14.75) vs. 49ers (26.75)
Pace: Buccaneers (14th) vs. 49ers (32nd)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 16.6% Pass (16th), -24.7% Rush (31st)
49ers Off. DVOA: 66.6% Pass (1st), 11.3% Rush (3rd)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA:
4.7% Pass (14th), -18.2% Rush (7th)
49ers Def. DVOA: -5.2% Pass (7th), -5.3% Rush (21st)

Matchups We Love:

Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)

Watching the 49ers put McCaffrey in at the end of the game to keep his touchdown streak alive and break the all-time record was awesome. Unfortunately, he didn't score, but kudos to Kyle Shanahan, who isn't necessarily known for being a players coach. San Francisco emerged from their bye week healthy, enabling them to massacre the Jaguars. The Buccaneers pose no greater threat, meaning another huge day for McCaffrey is upcoming.

Brock Purdy (QB, SF)

Purdy has faced a ton of criticism over the past month, some of which was deserved given the costly turnovers and losses, but he bounced back in a big way against what was considered a formidable defense. Throwing for nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns in fewer than 60 minutes is impressive. He's a great streaming option.

49ers WRs

Everyone was in on the party, including Deebo Samuel, who returned from injury to take an end-around rush to the house. Brandon Aiyuk did his damage through the air, also finding pay dirt. Both are in play as top-24 receivers this week with a juicy matchup against the Tampa Bay secondary.

George Kittle (TE, SF)

Kittle had one of his vintage spike weeks, thanks in large part to a catch down the sideline he took all the way to the end zone for 66 yards. Those spike weeks aren't always easy to predict, but the matchup is favorable and the offense is humming, so it's worth a shot.

Matchups We Hate:

Rachaad White (RB, TB)

White was predictably inefficient against the Titans, which figures to be the same outcome here. The two components of his role that make him valuable are his goal-line work and his pass-catching. He took a short screen pass 43 yards for a score on Sunday, which was enough to make his day. It's going to be an uphill battle, but he remains a top-24 back because of his usage.

Other Matchups:

Mike Evans (WR, TB)

Earlier in the year, it was Evans dominating in terms of targets and production while Chris Godwin underwhelmed. That began to shift in Week 4 when Evans got hurt, opening the door for Godwin to put together a four-week run as a top-28 receiver in fantasy. In the last two weeks, he's been outside the top 36 while Evans has 10 receptions for 230 yards and a touchdown. It appears we're closer to that early season dynamic where Evans is a top-15 receiver and Godwin is more of a top-36 option. Then you factor in the matchup, which on paper is good, but may not play out that way if the 49ers' defense plays like it did last week, making both a bit riskier than usual.

Injuries:

None

 

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -7.0
Implied Total: Jets (16.25) vs. Bills (23.25)
Pace: Jets (13th) vs. Bills (28th)
Jets Off. DVOA: -14.2% Pass (30th), -23.8% Rush (29th)
Bills Off. DVOA: 44.1% Pass (3rd), 5.7% Rush (4th)
Jets Def. DVOA:
-14.8% Pass (4th), -7.2% Rush (19th)
Bills Def. DVOA: 15.6% Pass (24th), -12.3% Rush (15th)

WEATHER: This game is expected to have a combination of sustained wind, cooler temperatures, and snow or rain, all of which could lead to an impact on the passing attack.

Matchups We Love:

Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)

The last time these two teams met was in Week 1. The Jets stole a victory in overtime in a game that Josh Allen looked lost. Fast forward about 10 weeks later, and the Bills have fired their offensive coordinator in response to an ugly loss to the Broncos, capping off their third loss in four weeks. They currently sit outside of a playoff spot, meaning there is a lot of work to be done. Despite a letdown performance at home on Monday, Diggs remains a great option and someone who already showed he can produce against Sauce Gardner and Co. It's best not to chase Gabe Davis, whose production essentially came on one catch.

Matchups We Hate:

None

Other Matchups:

Josh Allen (QB, BUF)

Allen leads the league in interceptions with 11, plus he has four fumbles. They've been careless and costly, consistently allowing opponents to hang around when they often have no business doing so. He still did well enough for fantasy because he ran and threw for a score, but facing the Jets has been an issue for him dating back to 2022. You're not going to bench him by any means, but expectations need to be lower this week.

James Cook (RB, BUF)

Cook lost a fumble early in the game, resulting in somewhat of a benching. He eventually re-entered the game to rip off a 42-yard run where he fumbled and retrieved the ball all in one motion. The yard totals continue to be high, this time 109 on the ground and 11 through the air, but Latavius Murray stole the goal-line carry. Losing volume and touchdown opportunities to both Murray and Allen makes it difficult unless he sees three to five receptions, which has happened five times this season. He's a high floor, low ceiling top-24 back.

Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF)

Until Dawson Knox is back, Kincaid is behind just Diggs as the No. 2 option. He scored again on Monday running a nice wheel route. He's back in the top 12 against New York, who allowed Michael Mayer to find the end zone last week.

Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ)

Writing about the Jets offense is like listening to a broken record. Everyone in the world, including both teams, knows what to expect. Zach Wilson will do his best to throw to Wilson frequently, propping up his floor, but they'll score one or zero touchdowns, lowering his ceiling. New York is dead-last in the NFL in offensive touchdowns, averaging 0.9 per game.

UPDATE: Wilson is active as anticipated.

Breece Hall (RB, NYJ)

Things are even harder for Hall, who doesn't have the luxury of starting five or ten yards down the field when the ball comes his way. The only chance he has to score is to make magic happen, which he occasionally will do. He sits 19th among all tailbacks in target share at 10.4%, which is a number that would greatly benefit the offense if it grew.

Injuries:

Damien Harris (neck)
Dawson Knox (wrist)
Garrett Wilson (elbow)

 

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Seahawks -1.0
Implied Total: Seahawks (23.5) vs. Rams (22.5)
Pace: Seshawks (9th) vs. Rams (21st)
Seahawks Off. DVOA: 26.4% Pass (9th), -7.1% Rush (19th)
Rams Off. DVOA: 10.1% Pass (19th), -2.6% Rush (11th)
Seahawks Def. DVOA:
15.0% Pass (23rd), -11.6% Rush (16th)
Rams Def. DVOA: 12.7% Pass (18th), -1.9% Rush (25th)

Matchups We Love:

Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA)

It wasn't shaping up to be a very good day for Walker until he took a short pass 64 yards to the house. Explosive plays are a part of his repertoire. He has seven breakaway runs (15-plus yards) and three breakaway receptions. Zach Charbonnet continues to be involved, once again running more routes, earning more targets, and playing more snaps in Week 10. However, when they're near the goal line, it's Walker who gets the nod. The Rams present a good matchup in what could be a higher-scoring contest, making Walker a top-15 back and Charbonnet a good flex option.

Seahawks WRs

Things returned to more of a typical distribution among the receivers with 12 targets for DK Metcalf and 10 for Tyler Lockett. No one else had more than five. Health is likely part of why we're seeing what was projected entering the year. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was still productive with four grabs for 53 yards, keeping him in the flex range against Los Angeles, who have been a top-10 matchup for wide receivers in fantasy points allowed the past four weeks. Lockett hasn't practiced this week, so we'll need to monitor his status on Friday.

UPDATE: Lockett is listed as questionable. He performed well last week and seemed healthy, but the weekend will confirm he's good to go.

Rams WRs

Matthew Stafford received the rest he needed on their bye week, which is marvelous news for the offense and their dynamic duo at receiver. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua jump back into the top 20 against the Seahawks, in a borderline must-win game for the Rams.

Matchups We Hate:

Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)

While Higbee also gets a boost from Stafford's return, he's the third or fourth option, which makes him harder to trust as more than a touchdown-dependent streamer.

Other Matchups:

Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)

Stafford already carved up this defense once in Week 1 for 334 yards. The two concerns are his health and passing touchdowns. He's been practicing in full, so it seems like things are good on that front. The touchdowns have been coming on the ground for the offense, limiting Stafford to just one multi-touchdown performance on the season. He's still a streamer in what could be a high-scoring game, but one with a lower ceiling.

Darrell Henderson Jr. (RB, LAR)

Kyren Williams is still a week away from resuming his role as the starter, meaning it'll be Henderson leading the charge with Royce Freeman as the secondary back. Henderson played two games with Stafford at the helm, finishing as the RB15 and RB22. It's not a great matchup, but he had a 7.9% target share and goal-line work, keeping him around the top 24.

Geno Smith (QB, SEA)

Smith lit up the Commanders with 369 yards and two touchdowns, but that was a very favorable matchup. It was the most yards he's thrown for all season, which means a lower output this week ought to be expected. That being said, it could be a back-and-forth showdown, so he's a streaming candidate.

Injuries:

Kyren Williams (ankle)
Tyler Lockett (hamstring)

 

Matchup Analysis - Sunday Night Football

Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -2.0
Implied Total: Vikings (20.25) vs. Broncos (22.25)
Pace: Vikings (6th) vs. Broncos (22nd)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 23.8% Pass (12th), -18.3% Rush (26th)
Broncos Off. DVOA: 17.1% Pass (14th), -6.0% Rush (18th)
Vikings Def. DVOA:
-1.4% Pass (9th), -13.9% Rush (12th)
Broncos Def. DVOA: 29.8% Pass (32nd), 11.2% Rush (32nd)

WEATHER: This game is expected to have a combination of sustained wind, cooler temperatures, and rain, all of which could lead to an impact on the passing attack.

Matchups We Love:

T.J. Hockenson (TE, MIN)

Despite reports that Hockenson might be limited in Week 10, he crushed the Saints with 11 receptions for 134 yards and a touchdown, almost all of which occurred in the first half. It's unreasonable to expect that type of production again this week, but it does prove the ceiling is still there.

Matchups We Hate:

None

Other Matchups:

Javonte Williams (RB, DEN)

Williams keeps playing well and earning a significant role with 21 carries and four catches for over 100 scrimmage yards. He also scored through the air. He's solidified himself as the clear lead back, ceding just 12 touches total between Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin. Minnesota has allowed just 3.4 yards per rush attempt over the past three weeks, which ranks fifth. They're also tied for fifth in defensive EPA per rush on the season. It's not a great matchup for Williams, but the volume keeps him in the top 24.

Russell Wilson (QB, DEN)

Wilson has been quite good this year except for a couple of outings. He ranks 11th in completion percentage over expected, fourth in passer rating, and is tied for second in passing touchdowns. He's been opportunistic while reducing the turnovers, throwing just four interceptions, trailing only Stroud among starting quarterbacks. He hasn't thrown for over 200 yards since Week 4, so the ceiling is lower, but he's a possible streamer.

Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)

Much like Wilson, Sutton has thrived by finding the end zone. He's second only to Tyreek Hill with seven touchdowns. It's outrageous when you consider he has a mere 41 receptions for 433 yards, but it's clearly an area where Wilson looks to him. Jerry Jeudy is seeing less volume and has a lot fewer touchdowns, reducing his appeal. Sutton slots in as an upside top-36 wideout with Jeudy in the flex range.

Jordan Addison (WR, MIN)

Much like the Vikings, the Broncos have made progress defensively as well. They rank second in points allowed over the past three weeks, giving up 16 per game. That has coincided with three straight victories, led by Patrick Surtain II shutting down opposing receivers. Furthermore, those victories came against the Packers, Chiefs, and Bills. Justin Jefferson appears close to returning, but the reports are suggesting Week 12 as a more realistic timeline. Addison is still in the top 36, but it's likely not a ceiling game for him.

UPDATE: Jefferson has been ruled out as anticipated. He seems on track for next week.

Joshua Dobbs (QB, MIN)

Dobbs crushed the Saints, especially during the first half. His 268 passing yards were the most allowed by New Orleans all year. Plus, he continues to be a threat on the ground, running the ball eight times for 44 yards and a score. He's now third in rushing attempts, second in rushing yards, and tied for second in rushing touchdowns among all signal-callers in 2023. His dual-threat ability puts him in play as a streamer against the improved Denver defense.

Ty Chandler (RB, MIN)

Chandler appeared to have turned the backfield into a timeshare with Alexander Mattison against the Saints. We'll never know for sure because Mattison exited with a concussion that should sideline him in Week 11. Chandler failed to earn a target but did score on a Wildcat snap. The theme of the matchup not being as good as it once was applies to Chandler as well, but not to the same extent. Denver is allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to tailbacks during their winning streak. Chandler should see the majority of the work, making him a volume-based flex option.

UPDATE: Mattison is listed as questionable for Sunday and is now expected to clear the concussion protocol and play. It drops the value for both him and Chandler because they'll be splitting the work.

Injuries:

Greg Dulcich (leg)
Justin Jefferson (hamstring)
Alexander Mattison (concussion)

 

Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -2.5
Implied Total: Eagles (21.5) vs. Chiefs (24)
Pace: Eagles (31st) vs. Chiefs (25th)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 30.3% Pass (8th), 4.8% Rush (6th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 37.5% Pass (5th), -12.1% Rush (23rd)
Eagles Def. DVOA:
14.6% Pass (22nd), -24.3% Rush (2nd)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: -17.9% Pass (3rd), -5.7% Rush (20th)

WEATHER: This game is expected to have sustained wind with a little bit of rain, which could have a minor impact on the passing attack.

Matchups We Love:

Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)

A Super Bowl rematch in prime time is an absolutely amazing way to end Week 11. Get out the popcorn for this one as these two juggernauts collide. Kansas City's defense has come a long way, but there's no reason to go away from Hurts, who has been unstoppable, especially at the goal line.

Eagles WRs

A.J. Brown is on pace for career highs everywhere and DeVonta Smith gets the benefit of absorbing many of Dallas Goedert's targets now that he's sidelined for multiple weeks. Trent McDuffie is the 17th-highest-ranked cornerback in coverage, according to PFF. He's a talented player who presents a tough matchup, but not one that these two can't conquer.

Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)

Traveling to Germany was not kind to Mahomes and Co. They scored two offensive touchdowns against Miami, both of which came in the first half, before being shut out in the second. Hosting the Eagles at Arrowhead is good news for the offense as a whole, including Mahomes, who despite his ups and downs, has a history of showing up in the big moments.

Travis Kelce (TE, KC)

After spending his bye week touring South America with his new bestie, Kelce figures to be recharged and ready to roll.

Matchups We Hate:

None

Other Matchups:

D'Andre Swift (RB, PHI)

Swift's workload has still been among the best, averaging about 19 touches per game over their past three contests. The issue has been just eight targets across that span, compared to seven per game from Weeks 4 through 6. Additionally, he's found the end zone just one time, partially because Hurts is automatic at the goal line, and partially because Kenneth Gainwell has scored twice. This matchup has the potential to be a shootout. If it gets anywhere near the 71 points they combined for in the Super Bowl, someone like Swift will be a huge reason why.

Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC)

It's going to be tough sledding for Pacheco against Philly's stout defensive front. It's definitively the strength of their defense, forcing Pacheco to generate points from other avenues such as touchdowns, which he has just one of in the last four games, or receptions, which he's averaging about three per week during the same timeframe. The ceiling hasn't been there for Pacheco recently, but unlike Swift, he's likely to be the beneficiary of any goal-line attempts.

Rashee Rice (WR, KC)

Rice's lack of volume continues to be frustrating. Rice ran fewer routes than Justin Watson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He also had fewer targets than Skyy Moore. Fortunately, he came away with a touchdown, but it's tough to trust his usage. The matchup sets up well against a secondary that was roasted by Washington for the second time this year before their bye. Rice is still the preferred candidate for a big play or blow-up game, but there's also a chance one of the ancillary pieces comes through instead.

Injuries:

Dallas Goedert (forearm)



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Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Breakouts for Fantasy Football - Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends for Week 13

You are already aware that wide receivers will play a critical role in the success of your teams. The undeniable volatility that exists with the running back position has also presented an increasing rationale for prioritizing wide receivers when you build your rosters -- both at the onset of your drafts and as you manage... Read More