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Dan's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 11 of 2025. He looks at potential warning signals from Zach Charbonnet, Nick Chubb, Deebo Samuel Sr., and Cade Otton
Another week of NFL football is upon us, meaning we have another week of news, data, and trends to look back on in search of Warning Signals for our upcoming fantasy football matchups. In RotoBaller’s weekly Warning Signals column, I highlight a handful of players whose outlooks in the week ahead lean more towards bust than boom to give readers a heads up on who on their rosters might sabotage their efforts to win.
Zach Charbonnet had a great Week 10, but his dependency on touchdowns spells trouble in Week 11. Nick Chubb is on the losing end of a position battle in Houston, and it will cost him in what would otherwise be a good matchup. Another week of Marcus Mariota makes me pessimistic about Deebo Samuel Sr.’s outlook. Finally, the worst matchup a tight end could ask for is going to pump the brakes on Cade Otton’s recent productivity.
It’s hard to believe Week 11 is already here and that we are entering the home stretch to the fantasy football playoffs. Whether you are a bubble team trying to secure a playoff spot or a front-runner jockeying for seeding, no roster decision should be taken lightly. With so much at stake, you have to keep your options open and look out for these and other Warning Signals in Week 11.
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Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Charbonnet had himself a game last week against the Arizona Cardinals. In Seattle's 44-22 rout of their division rival, he handled 14 carries for a season-high 83 yards and his sixth touchdown of the year. Charbonnet’s nose for the end zone has made him valuable despite being relegated to a timeshare, but the weeks between have been massive bummers for fantasy football managers.
Zach Charbonnet adds to the @Seahawks massive first half lead.
AZvsSEA on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/ioUcrZrlm1
— NFL (@NFL) November 9, 2025
Charbonnet has managed to score in five of the eight games he has played in 2025. However, outside of those touchdowns, Charbonnet is bringing very little to the table. In the “off” weeks where he didn’t score, Charbonnet averaged 3.8 PPR fantasy points and 1.69 yards per carry. Season-long, Charbonnet has been given his fair share of handoffs (11.8 carries per game) but has been racking up just 39.1 yards per game.
In sum, Charbonnet’s value is tied to his ability to get into the end zone. While the Seahawks give him ample opportunities to do so, the deck is stacked against him in Week 11. On Sunday, Charbonnet will be up against a Rams defense that didn’t allow a rushing touchdown to a running back until just last week. Inside their ten-yard line, Los Angeles tightens up. They rank second in yards per carry allowed and EPA/rush in such situations.
Fantasy football managers in deeper leagues that regularly rely on Charbonnet in a starting RB slot might not have a better choice in Week 11. Those in more common 10 and 12-team leagues where Charbonnet is more of a flex candidate should look elsewhere this time around.
Nick Chubb, RB, Houston Texans
Coming out of Week 10, the good news about Chubb is that he averaged 9.4 yards per carry. The bad news is that he took just five handoffs and, perhaps even worse, he was in on just 10 snaps in the Texans’ 36-29 win over the Jaguars.
In trying to keep pace with the Jags, Houston featured rookie Woody Marks, who handled 14 carries for 63 yards and a touchdown and tacked on another 18 yards on two receptions. Since Houston’s Week 6 bye, Marks has seen almost twice as many snaps as Chubb and is averaging 11.6 PPR points per game to Chubb’s 5.2.
The last time Chubb outsnapped Marks was in Week 8, and the last time before that came in Week 3. Marks’ recent performance puts him in the driver’s seat in Houston’s backfield, and he, not Chubb, stands to benefit the most from the Texans’ upcoming clash with the Titans.
#Texans Week 10 RB Usage
- Woody Marks: 78% snaps, 14 carries, 28 routes, 3 targets (81 yds, TD)
- Nick Chubb: 15% snaps, 5 carries, 5 routes, 1 target (52 yds)Marks really taking over this backfield
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) November 9, 2025
Deebo Samuel Sr., WR, Washington Commanders
After a hot start to 2025, Samuel has been fairly disappointing as of late. In the first five weeks of the season, Samuel tallied a 30-300-3 line with another touchdown via the ground, and averaged 17.7 PPR points per game. Since Week 6, he has provided just 8.0 PPR points per game, averaging four catches and 24 receiving yards over four games (Samuel was out in Week 7 due to injury).
A contributing factor to Samuel’s downward trend is Washington’s quarterback change following Jayden Daniels’ (elbow) devastating injury suffered in Week 9. With Mariota taking over under center, the pace of the Commanders’ offense has slowed to 28.2 seconds per snap compared to 25.6 seconds per snap in Daniels' starts. Mariota also throws less (25.0 attempts per game) than Daniels (28.0), in an already run-heavy offense.
A slower offense with fewer pass attempts means fewer opportunities for Samuel to make an impact on the stat sheet. Samuel’s stats with each quarterback bear that out. In Daniels’ starts, Samuel was averaging 6.2 receptions, 54.6 yards, and 15.68 fantasy points per game. With Mariota, he has produced 3.8 catches, 30.7 yards, and 10.5 fantasy points per game.
In Week 11, Samuel and the Commanders face the Miami Dolphins, who have allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to opposing wide receivers in 2025. The combination of a poor matchup and languid offense doesn’t inspire confidence that Samuel will find success this weekend.
Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With wide receivers Mike Evans (collarbone) and Chris Godwin (leg), and running back Bucky Irving (foot, shoulder) shelved due to injury, Otton has emerged as a reliable weapon in Tampa Bay’s offense. Otton has not scored a touchdown yet this season, but he has done enough as a receiver to post double-digit fantasy point totals in four of the Buccaneers’ last five games.
Otton had a nice run, but it is important to note that his productivity came against defenses that are among the more generous in the league to opposing tight ends. In Week 11, Otton faces a true challenge in the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo is allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends and has given up the fewest receptions and yards to the position.
The Bills rank fifth in the league in sack rate and sixth in quarterback pressure rate. Otton may be asked to help hold off defenders more often than usual on Sunday, which would cut into his opportunities as a pass catcher. Otton has been a fantastic add from the waiver wire for tight end streamers, but expectations should be lowered for Week 11.
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