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John's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 16 of 2025. Are the breakout performances from Kyle Pitts Sr., Kirk Cousins, Colby Parkinson legit or flukes?
Week 15 has concluded, and despite being nearly done with the 2025 NFL season, we still saw players have surprise performances that made fantasy managers consider grabbing them off waivers and starting them in Week 16, even with potential elimination on the line.
The fantasy playoffs, in most leagues, are single-game elimination contests. But as long as football remains a contact sport, injuries will be a major part of the game. So will starting players not performing up to expectations. This means working the waivers is still very important.
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts Sr., fellow Falcons player and quarterback Kirk Cousins, and Los Angeles Rams tight end Colby Parkinson all surprised last week, putting up fantasy performances of over 20 PPR fantasy points in Week 15. But were their big games legitimate or flukes? Let's dive in.
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Was Kyle Pitts Sr.'s Performance Legit Or A Fluke?
It took a long time, but Pitts finally had a game that seemed to justify the hype he had around him when he entered the NFL. He caught 11 of his 12 targets for 166 yards and three touchdowns, scoring a ridiculous 45.6 PPR fantasy points and likely lifting many fantasy teams to victory in the first round of the fantasy playoffs.
His performance was genuinely absurd, as he never had a game with more than one receiving touchdown in his career to that point, except for one time last season. You'll never guess who the quarterback and opponent were for that game! That's right, they were Cousins and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
After review it's a... touchdown!
Kyle Pitts with his THIRD of the night 🙌
ATLvsTB on Prime Video
Also streaming on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/Qhap3iexGS— NFL (@NFL) December 12, 2025
The Falcons have a solid history of putting up big numbers against the Buccaneers, who have one of the NFL's worst pass defenses. In fact, Cousins has his biggest games against Tampa Bay while being mediocre to bad in nearly all his other matchups over the past two seasons.
Pitts, in his last two seasons, has had games of seven catches for 88 yards, four catches for 91 yards and two touchdowns, seven catches for 59 yards, and the aforementioned 11-catch, 166-yard, 3-TD game against the Bucs in the past two seasons. He averages an obscene 24.9 PPR points per game against them.
Kirk Cousins to Pitts for 6️⃣
ATLvsTB on Prime Video
Also streaming on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/TRLIQjwfjv— NFL (@NFL) December 12, 2025
Breaking down the film of Week 15, it's clear that Tampa Bay has major problems with its pass defense. It often left pass-catchers absolutely wide open, as it did on the above play. That's an unacceptable bust in coverage that led to a walk-in touchdown. There's no reason for that to happen.
Few teams in the NFL have a combination of such a bad defense and a history of getting dominated through the air by a divisional rival over the last few years. Perhaps the bigger takeaway is to bet the overs on Falcons offensive players against the Bucs moving forward. I'd do so next year.
It's hard to see Pitts not having a bigger role moving forward. That said, Falcons WR1 Drake London (knee) missed this game. He would likely have put up big numbers if he had played. Pitts should be started in all leagues in Week 16, but London's return could prove a big hit to his fantasy value.
Still, Pitts working as the second-highest-targeted player on the team would be great for fantasy, with WR Darnell Mooney becoming an afterthought in the offense. It's definitely possible, so I recommend starting Pitts in all leagues. Tight end points are very valuable, as the position is pretty low-scoring in general.
Week 16 Outlook: Add in All Leagues, Start in All Leagues
Was Kirk Cousins' Performance Legit Or A Fluke?
Cousins played against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week and completed 30 of his 44 pass attempts for 373 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. This amounted to over 26.9 fantasy points, meaning he was one of the best quarterbacks of the week.
All three of Cousins' touchdowns went to tight end Kyle Pitts Sr., who also had a massive breakout, as mentioned above. Cousins has dominated the Buccaneers in the past two seasons, though, and he nearly looks like a completely different quarterback against them.
KIRK TO SILLS V ON 4TH AND 14
ATLvsTB on Prime Video
Also streaming on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/2Efc2Wb0yx— NFL (@NFL) December 12, 2025
The Bucs defense was absolutely terrible last week. But Cousins proved he can put up solid numbers even with Pitts as his de facto WR1. It looks like London has a solid chance of coming back this week, which would give Cousins even more upside.
London is one of the NFL's best receivers, though he hasn't played in a few weeks due to a PCL sprain. Though the Falcons are eliminated from playoff contention, they don't have much reason to tank, and have coaches who are fighting to keep their jobs.
If the offense looks good over the next few weeks, it might be enough for them to keep their positions into next year. And London is fighting for one of the biggest contracts for a WR in NFL history when it comes time for his extension. So, Cousins definitely has upside moving forward with QB1 Michael Penix Jr. (knee) out for the year.
Week 16 Outlook: Add in All Leagues, Start in 2QB Leagues
Was Colby Parkinson's Performance Legit Or A Fluke?
It's rare to have two tight ends on the list, but Parkinson's game in Week 15 was just too good to ignore. He caught five of his seven targets for 75 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Ever since the injury to TE Tyler Higbee (knee), he's been an absolute monster.
The Rams have passed the ball in the red zone far more than in previous seasons, and the beneficiaries have been their big pass-catchers, like WR Davante Adams (hamstring) and the tight ends. Parkinson has hogged most of the TDs that have gone to the tight ends.
COLBY PARKINSON IS THE GREATEST TE IN NFL HISTORY!! pic.twitter.com/xqkqV5Fb07
— SeattleRams (@seattlerams_nfl) December 14, 2025
He now has six touchdowns in his last six games after going nine games to start the season without a single score or even a game with double-digit PPR fantasy points. He's gone from a minimally rostered player to a must-add and must-start quite quickly.
His involvement doesn't seem likely to slow down, either. The Rams will probably be without Adams, an elite receiver still at age 32, in Week 16. He's dealing with a hamstring injury, and they play on Thursday Night Football. The Rams organization has admitted that his injury doesn't look good.
Davante Adams with the ridiculous 1-step jab release at the line 🥊 pic.twitter.com/Xol1KJdljA
— Receiver School (@ReceiverSchool) December 15, 2025
Adams doesn't require elite speed to win on his routes. He's one of the best route runners to ever play the game of football, and his presence will be sorely missed by the Rams. They might elect to run the ball more at the goal line, but Parkinson has proved capable of playing well in that area of the field.
With this particular Los Angeles team having one of the best offenses in the NFL this year and scoring plenty of touchdowns, it makes sense that Parkinson could be a league-winner at his position. It's rare to find players with such upside at TE on the waiver wire this late in the season.
Considering his involvement and production in previous weeks, it would be foolish to call this performance a fluke. He should be added in and started in all leagues in Week 16, despite a difficult matchup upcoming against the Seattle Seahawks defense, which is one of the best in the NFL.
Week 16 Outlook: Add in All Leagues, Start in All Leagues
Who Should I Start Tool
Not sure who to start? Check out the Who Should I Start tool:
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Who Should I Start? Who Should I Sit? Some common Week 16 fantasy football lineup decisions are regarding players like Kyle Pitts Sr., Kirk Cousins, and Colby Parkinson, but not to worry, we are here to help make these decisions and build winning lineups in Week 16. Set your optimal fantasy football lineups for Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season. Our free Who Should I Start? tool will help make your fantasy football lineup decisions. Compare up to four NFL players, and we tell you who to start... all free! Get your winning lineups set, and make the right decisions.
Week 16 Player Decisions. Need a replacement? Today's focus is on specific players -- Kyle Pitts Sr., Kirk Cousins, and Colby Parkinson. These are some of the most common searches for fantasy football lineups in Week 16.
Using The Tool. This is a simple tool but very powerful. The first step is to enter the player names that you want to compare. In the first box, search for the first player's name. In the second box, search for the second player's name. Compare up to four NFL players at once, and then click the Who To Start? button to see who the recommended starts are based on weekly fantasy football matchups.
Improvements For Who Should I Start? You may have noticed, our Who Should I Start? tool has gotten an overhaul. We've added lots of great features for you to give you as much information as possible to win your fantasy football matchups each week. You'll see NFL player tiles with headshots and bye weeks, enhanced search results with data to compare, and a slick new interface. We hope you enjoy!
How It Works. Each week, our RotoBaller staff puts together their weekly fantasy football rankings and projections based on their research. That information is the core data that is powering the decision-making in this tool. When you search for player names, you will only see those players who are ranked. If someone is out for the week, they will not appear in the search results.
Scoring Formats. Fantasy football managers play in various types of leagues, and this tool allows you to choose whether it's PPR scoring, Half-PPR scoring, or Standard (Non-PPR) scoring. The second thing you want to do is to select the scoring format. There are three small radio buttons (small circles), so click on the scoring format you prefer. The results may vary based on the scoring format you select.
Popular Week 16 Searches. Curious to see some tough lineup decisions for Week 16 (2025)? Below you will find a list of some popular Who Should I Start? searches that RotoBaller readers are looking at this week. Click any of the links to see the result and recommendation.
Popular Week 16 Searches - Start/Sit Player Comparisons
Need a replacement? Below are some popular Week 16 searches and comparisons from our 'Who To Start' tool for Kyle Pitts Sr., Kirk Cousins, and Colby Parkinson compared to others:
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