RADIO
Top fantasy football risers and fallers heading into Week 7 of the 2023 NFL season. Joe Nicely identifies players at QB, RB, WR, and TE whose value for fantasy football is rising or falling.
Hello, RotoBallers! Football fans and fantasy managers might still be recovering from wild Week 6 action that included both San Francisco and Philadelphia losing, Desmond Ridder scoring more fantasy points than Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen, as well as injuries to elite fantasy producers such as Christian McCaffrey, Justin Fields, David Montgomery, and Kyren Williams. Totally normal stuff. The result is an eclectic group of fantasy football risers and fallers as we head into Week 7.
Adam Koffler will be back with you next week, so we'll keep this weekly column very much in line with his vision...we'll be looking at fantasy football players whose arrows may be pointing up and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.
Here are the key risers and fallers coming out of Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season.
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Week 7 Fantasy Football Risers
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
The fantasy community has spent the better part of the last two seasons roasting Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith for his stubborn refusal to utilize the talented pass-catching weapons at his disposal.
While it’s probably not been by choice, Smith has been forced to lean on the Falcons passing attack over the last few weeks due to negative game scripts, which has led Atlanta to average 38.3 pass attempts per game across their last three, the third most in the NFL over that timespan.
Give Drake London a 50/50 ball. He'll probably win it. @DrakeLondon_
📺: #WASvsATL on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/B4mQvLOt8O pic.twitter.com/id4ZAps1dE— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2023
This sudden increase in pass-game volume has led to a spike in opportunities for second-year wideout Drake London. London has now been targeted 21 times over Atlanta’s last two. If we toss out his single target Week 1 stinker, his 42 targets since Week 2 ranks 11th in the NFL. In the squad’s Week 6 loss to Washington, London reeled in nine catches for 125 yards, and over the Falcons' last two, he’s tallied 203 yards on 15 catches.
While Atlanta will remain a run-first offense, the USC product is the unquestioned alpha of this receiving corps and will benefit from heavy volume when the Falcons are forced to put the ball in the air. In Week 7 he squares off against a Tampa Bay secondary that's allowing the NFL's ninth-most fantasy points per game to the WR position this season. London then draws a string of matchups with defenses that have struggled against the pass in Tennessee, Minnesota, and Arizona in Weeks 8-10.
Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders
While Detroit Lions rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has been a breakout star this season, most fantasy football regulars know the mantra that the TE position is a notoriously difficult one to transition to at the NFL level. Though most agree that the 2023 NFL draft was stocked with a strong tight end class, highly touted rookies such as Dalton Kincaid and Luke Musgrave have failed to make any notable fantasy impact to this point.
The same can be said for Raiders rookie tight end Michael Mayer. Though he slid to Las Vegas in the second round of the draft, many analysts had the Notre Dame product as the highest-rated TE in the 2023 class. Unfortunately, Mayer has gotten off to a slow start in his first NFL campaign while sharing snaps with veteran Austin Hooper.
After a slow first month, rookie Michael Mayer has emerged as the TE1. 11 targets the last 2 weeks to go with a 19% target share. Mayer is that dude. #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/wLoM5aS0Lu
— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) October 16, 2023
However, Mayer broke out in the Raiders Week 6 win over the New England Patriots, logging career highs in targets (six), receptions (five), and yards (75) against the Pats. Perhaps as notable as the production was the fact that Mayer's 57 snaps significantly outpaced Hooper's 24. As the rookie continues to earn a larger snap share, his fantasy output should follow. He's a legitimate breakout candidate across the second half of the season and is worthy of a stash at a position where fantasy production is always difficult to find.
Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
I don't blame you if you are experiencing some deja vu when discussing Rice, as it feels like we've had the same conversation when discussing the likes of Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore in the past. The difference is that Rice is, how can I say this, actually good at football.
The rookie made a big play on third down to help us ice the Broncos win in the final minutes 🍚 pic.twitter.com/111OBGYEYa
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) October 16, 2023
Yes, it's still tough to trust any Chiefs pass catcher outside of Travis Kelce, but Rice is without question the most likely candidate to become a serious fantasy factor as the year progresses. While he's yet to emerge as the clear-cut WR1 in Kansas City, the potential is certainly there. The rookie's biggest obstacle to this point has been getting on the field consistently. That said, he's been uber-efficient with his opportunities, reeling in 18 of 23 targets for 216 yards and two TDs over the first six games of his career.
While his overall snap share remains fairly moderate, Rice is being targeted heavily when he's on the field. He boasts an eye-opening 36% target per route run rate. As the rookie continues to capitalize on the opportunities that come his way, we can expect his playing time – and volume – to increase. With an upcoming schedule that includes the Chargers, Broncos, and Dolphins over the next three weeks, the Rice breakout could be upon us.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
What a difference a week makes. I had Jahymr Gibbs in the "Fallers" section of this article just last week thanks to the combination of David Montgomery's excellent play and the rookie's injury issues. Just a week later, Gibbs' short-term fantasy outlook appears much brighter thanks to a rib injury that Montgomery suffered in Week 6 that's expected to sideline him for multiple games.
Detroit Lions RB David Montgomery is expected to miss couple weeks.
Jahmyr Gibbs is expected to get back into the lineup. pic.twitter.com/q0MNrmedVs
— NFL Rumors (@nflrums) October 16, 2023
Gibbs is reportedly almost fully recovered from a hamstring injury that's forced him to miss Detroit's last two. If healthy, he could become a fantasy force in Montgomery's absence. With Montgomery out of the lineup in Week 3, the rookie slid into a quasi-workhorse role for this strong Lions offense and garnered 19 total opportunities in a win over Atlanta.
We could see similar usage for Gibbs as long as Montgomery remains sidelined. Though he'll likely return to a complimentary role when Montgomery returns to the lineup, he has a great chance to close the usage gap between himself and the veteran – as well as provide a boost to his fantasy managers – if he can perform well over the next couple of weeks.
Other Risers: Jared Goff, Isiah Pacheco, Zach Evans, Jameson Williams, Curtis Samuel, Kyle Pitts
Week 7 Fantasy Football Fallers
Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers
Experienced fantasy analysts often preach patience, especially when it comes to rookies. However, even the most monk-like experts are probably ready to throw in the towel on L.A. rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston.
Despite a season-ending injury to Mike Williams that seemingly paved the way to fantasy relevance for Johnston, the first-round pick out of TCU has failed to do, well, anything in this Chargers offense. Many expected the team to work on getting Johnston more involved during their Week 5 bye. That turned out to be wishful thinking, however, as he logged a goose egg on just two targets against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6.
Chargers did a great job using the bye to get literally everyone who isn't Quentin Johnston more involved in the offense.
— Andy Behrens (@andybehrens) October 17, 2023
Fantasy managers that either used a late-round draft flier on Johnston or prioritized him on the waiver wire after Williams' injury have little reason for optimism. In addition to the rookie's own ineffectiveness, his Chargers teammate Joshua Palmer has solidified himself as the team's true second option behind top receiver Keenan Allen. Palmer has now recorded seven or more targets and 60 or more receiving yards in each of L.A.'s last three games, while Johnston has totaled three receptions for 28 yards during the same stretch.
Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
While there have been flashes this season, such as 100-plus yard receiving days in Weeks 1 and 5, Ridley's Week 6 output of four catches for 30 yards is becoming a little too familiar for his fantasy managers. The former Atlanta Falcon has been boom or bust in his first campaign as a Jaguar, posting over 20 fantasy points on two occasions but also recording seven or fewer points in three games.
Ridley has faced stiff target competition from other Jacksonville pass catchers such as Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram. He ranks second to Kirk in both targets per game and team target share, while his 21.2% target share is identical to Engram's.
Target share last five games:
Christian Kirk 25.8%
Calvin Ridley 18.5%— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 16, 2023
As Ridley prepares to face a stingy New Orleans pass defense on Thursday Night Football in Week 7, he and the Jags offense could be without star quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who is dealing with a knee sprain. Unfortunately, his fantasy managers have little choice but to accept the ebbs and flows of Ridley's production.
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
Though C.J. Stroud and the Texans' passing attack has been one of the NFL's most pleasant surprises through the first six weeks of the season, Dameon Pierce has struggled mightily to get anything going on the ground in Houston. After flashing exciting explosiveness during his rookie campaign in 2022, Pierce has found little running room behind a patchwork Texans offensive line this year.
He heads into Houston's bye week averaging a meager 2.9 yards per carry, which is tied for the worst mark in the NFL among running backs with at least 50 attempts. Pierce's fantasy managers have been able to take some solace in the fact that he's received true workhorse usage, though that safety net suddenly appears fragile, as backup Texans running back Devin Singletary saw a season-high 12 carries in the team's Week 6 win over New Orleans, while Pierce logged a season-low 35% snap share.
Though Pierce will likely retain lead-back duties, Singletary's effectiveness last week could lead to more opportunities and drive the Houston coaching staff to take a committee approach in the backfield.
Dameon Pierce's struggles have allowed Devin Singletary to shine.
Singletary led the Texans with 58 rushing yards Sunday despite Houston's OL ranking 26th in run block win rate.
Only rostered in 27.3% of ESPN leagues.
Are you targeting Singletary on the WW?
— Moody (@EricNMoody) October 17, 2023
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
After opening the season with three straight top-10 fantasy QB performances, Cousins' fantasy production has hit the skids recently. The Minnesota signal-caller has now failed to top 200 passing yards in two of the Vikings' last three games.
Cousins' fantasy prospects haven't been aided by the fact that Justin Jefferson has been placed on Injured Reserve. Life without his star receiver got off to a rough start in Week 6, as Cousins posted season lows in yards per attempt (5.8), TDs (one), and fantasy points (8.7) against the lowly Chicago Bears.
Things certainly don't get any easier in Week 7, as Minnesota hosts the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners are one of just 10 teams in the NFL that are allowing less than 200 passing yards per game and have relinquished the fourth-fewest fantasy points in the league to the QB position this season. Without Jefferson, Cousins is a pick-your-spots streamer that should be avoided this week.
#Vikings QB Kirk Cousins was asked today if he'd waive his no-trade clause: pic.twitter.com/65VpCaNd7P
— Ari Meirov (@AriMeirov) October 11, 2023
Other Fallers: Gardner Minshew, Rachaad White, A.J. Dillon, Miles Sanders, Jahan Dotson, D.J. Moore, Tutu Atwell, Zach Ertz
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