Undervalued and Overvalued Fantasy Baseball Catchers - Targets and Avoids at ADP (2026)

March 10, 2026

Andy identifies 5 undervalued and overvalued fantasy baseball catchers, including potential sleepers and busts to target or avoid in 2026 drafts based on ADP.

For the first time in potentially the history of fantasy baseball, the catcher position is one of the deepest in the sport. Entering 2026, managers have more "No. 1 catcher" opinions than ever before, which can make navigating the position quite difficult.

In this piece, I will spotlight five catches who are either top targets at their current price or the ones to look past on draft day using NFBC ADP since February 1.

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Fantasy Baseball Catchers to Target at ADP

Drake Baldwin, C, Atlanta Braves

ADP: 82, C7

Given the depth at the position, my favorite targets are actually outside of the top-12 at the position. However, if I were to "reach" for one of the consensus top options, I would draft Drake Baldwin. Baldwin spent his entire rookie season with the Braves and looked quite comfortable, holding a .274/.341/.469 slash line with 18 doubles and 19 long balls over 124 games.

He tallied a solid 80 RBI with 56 runs, while batting in the heart of the Atlanta starting nine.

However, under the hood, his metrics suggest the former top catching prospect could take another step forward in Year 2. The 24-year-old generated an elite .353 xwOBA, .272 xBA, and a .480 xSLG, all of which were well above the average marks among qualified hitters. He also posted an 85th percentile hard-hit rate (49.6%) with an eye-catching 91st percentile bat speed (75.3 mph).

While Baldwin had to share opportunities with Sean Murphy and could not take the DH spot with Marcell Ozuna on the roster, Murphy will be out through May with a hip injury, and Ozuna is now in the Steel City. This will allow Baldwin to not only see a full-time role behind the dish, but also move to the DH spot, which will only boost his counting stats.

Additionally, the Braves will welcome back a healthy Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, and Austin Riley, which will give the entire lineup a significant boost. Baldwin has a top-5 upside at the position and is going just inside the top-100 in current ADP.

Francisco Alvarez, New York Mets

ADP: 167, C13

My other two top targets sit outside the top-12 in current NFBC ADP. The former No. 1 prospect has yet to return to his 25-HR upside he flashed in his debut campaign. However, the young backstop too made major strides last season and appears to be entering 2026 with serious momentum.

After hitting only 11 home runs in 2024 and posting a rough .236/.319/.333 line with only three long balls over his first 35 games of 2025, Alvarez completely flipped the script down the street. Following a short demotion to Triple-A, Alvarez was able to tweak his swing, which was the driving force for his second-half surge.

Over his last 41 games, Alvarez posted a stellar .276/.360/.561 line with eight home runs and a .921 OPS. He generated an overall barrel rate of 12.1% and a hard-hit rate of 54.3%, both well above the average and similar to his 2023 production.

With little competition on his roster, the Mets are expected to give Alvarez the clear driver's seat as the No.1 catcher. If he can carry this momentum into the second half of 2026, the 24-year-old could be a "diet" Cal Raleigh.

FRANCISCO ALVAREZ'S SECOND HOME RUN OF THE NIGHT!

The Mets have scored all 12 of their runs with two outs! pic.twitter.com/EldAdy0myG

— SNY (@SNYtv) August 13, 2025

Carter Jensen, Kansas City Royals

ADP: 179, C16

Going a handful of picks after Alvarez is the young backstop, Carter Jensen. Even though the legendary Salvador Perez is still on the roster, Jensen is slated to operate as the 1B alongside Perez and see ample time as a catcher and as a DH, which will provide him with near every day at-bats.

The Royals promoted Jensen to the majors in the second half, and he did not disappoint. Across 20 games, Jensen hit six doubles, launched three home runs, and held a 12:9 K:BB. During this brief stint, Jensen flashed immense upside, posting a .447 xwOBA with a .336 xBA and .633 xSLG.

While managers should not expect him to sustain this incredible pace, he may face minimal growing pains over his first full campaign in Kansas City.

Before his promotion, Jensen began the season at Double-A Northwest Arkansas, where he posted a .292/.360/.420 line with nine doubles, six home runs, and seven stolen bases. Then, during his first stint at Triple-A (43 games), Jensen hit 11 doubles, 14 home runs, and swiped another three bags. He posted an eye-catching 1.051 OPS while holding a 13.0% BB% and a 17.4% K%.

Both of these were improvements over the 12.2% BB% and 24.8% K% he held at Double-A for most of the first half.

While it may seem risky relying on a rookie with minimal experience as your No. 1 catcher in one-catcher leagues, Jensen has the potential to become an immediate contributor and push himself into the top 10 of the position. Managers in two-catcher formats should prioritize Jensen as your go-to No. 2 catcher.

Carter Jensen's first big league hit: RBI double. Awesome moment for the Jensen family.#Royals lead, 9-2 after four innings. pic.twitter.com/1NNh1DJqKv

— Anne Rogers (@anne__rogers) September 7, 2025

Others to target: Hunter Goodman - COL, Kyle Teel - CWS

Fantasy Baseball Catchers to Avoid at ADP

Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners

ADP: 17, C1

While I would not completely fade Raleigh in 2026 drafts, given the depth at the position, I find it difficult to construct a balanced roster when taking your catcher just outside of Round 1. Raleigh is coming off a career season (and one of the best by a catcher in the game's history), launching 60 home runs with a .247/.359/.589 line.

However, in the two seasons before, Raleigh posted .232 and .220 AVGs, both well below the median line of an average hitter. Even in a career season, Raleigh generated a modest .231 xBA under the hood, suggesting he will likely face some regression in 2026.

Raleigh also never hit more than 35 home runs in both of these seasons, which further suggests his incredible 60-HR campaign is not sustainable and a clear outlier. If Raleigh returns to his 2025 production (.220 AVG with 34 HRs), managers will be heavily disappointed at the cost.

At a similar ADP, managers could take a high-end first baseman like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (who possesses one of the safest floors in fantasy) or Nick Kurtz. Additionally, in five-outfield leagues, managers would instead pivot to Jackson Chourio or Corbin Carroll, for the sake of positional security.

While Raleigh could turn in another 40+ HR season and produce high-end Round 3 value, it will be very unlikely that the backstop can live up to this hefty price tag.

Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 97, C9

Sitting in a small price range, as the previously noted Baldwin is Los Angeles' Will Smith. Smith is once again slated to be the No. 1 catcher on the best team in the baseball league that welcomed superstar outfielder Kyle Tucker. In 2025, Smith enjoyed one of the best seasons of his career, posting a career-high .298 AVG with 17 HRs, 61 RBI, and 64 runs. So what's not to like?

Unlike the other backstops in this range, the Smith will likely never see time as DH unless Shohei Ohtani misses time on the IL. Smith will only earn at-bats as a backstop, as he has only played four total games as a DH in his past two seasons combined. This significantly limited his counting stats, as his 64 runs ranked 13th at the position, and his 61 RBI ranked 13th.

His 362 PAs placed him 22nd among all backstops last season.

Keep in mind, he had to hit for an elite .298 AVG to even compile these counting stats last season. If there is any prominent regression to his career average of .264, Smith could be a major disappointment at his current price tag. Per Baseball Savant, Smith generated a .269 xBA in 2025, suggesting regression should be expected and baked into his cost.

Fade this potential draft landmine and target players like Seiya Suzuki, Eury Perez, or Bo Bichette just above pick 100.

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