Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Pitchers On The Rise (Week 11)

June 12, 2026

Are these pitchers fantasy baseball breakouts or fake outs? Dan analyzes advanced pitcher statistics and surging fantasy baseball SPs for Week 11 of 2026, including

The group of pitchers I select for this article varies greatly week to week, but this week I've landed on three pitchers whom I genuinely had no idea where the data would take me. All three pitchers have had some success recently, but it's fair to say there are still plenty of doubters about whether they can maintain it.

If you are new to this column, remember that the goal is to look at several pitchers each week who are showing signs of "breaking out." That term gets thrown around a lot in our industry, but to me, it means they're flirting with the possibility of improving their baseline performance across a larger sample.

So, while we typically look at younger pitchers as potential "breakouts," I won't limit myself to only youngsters. The concept of the breakout can be applied to pitchers of all experience levels, as we have seen numerous examples of pitchers improving significantly from season to season, even into their 30s. All roster percentages are courtesy of Yahoo! Let's see which of these arms we can trust going forward and where we can expect regression! All statistics were current through Wednesday, June 10.

Michael Soroka, Arizona Diamondbacks

• 78% Rostered
• 2025 stats: 89.2 IP, 4.52ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 25.1% K%, 7.7% BB%
• 2026 stats: 74.0 IP, 3.28 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 23.5% K%, 5.6% BB%

Soroka's solid 2025 campaign with the Nationals and Cubs landed him a one-year deal with the Diamondbacks this season, and he's been easily the most reliable member of the Arizona rotation so far.

He's now allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, punctuated by a very impressive outing against the Nationals earlier this week.

Michael Soroka was sharp today.

7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
5 whiffs
28% CSW

Swing and miss stuff wasn't there, but velo was up, and he was efficient with filling up the zone.

Season stats:
8-3 with a 3.28 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 72 K, 17 BB, 74 IP.pic.twitter.com/IWw7h9kTe0

— Nicho Roessler (@NichoRoessler) June 8, 2026

Over those last seven starts, he owns a 2.28 ERA and a 36:8 K:BB, logging at least six innings all but once.

But is this level of production sustainable, or are Soroka's numbers a mirage? The answer is not exactly a clear-cut yes or no, unfortunately.

First of all, Soroka's ERA indicators suggest only minor regression (3.61 SIERA, 3.92 xERA), which is a good sign. He's allowing quite a bit of contact (91.8% Z-Contact, only 9.3% SwStr%), but he managed to avoid getting overly hard (8% Barrel%, 32.9% Hard%).

Nothing about his stats this season seems all that out of the ordinary based on what we have seen from him since 2023. The strikeouts are more dependent on his called strike rate (17.3%) than on swinging strikes, and it certainly helps that he has posted his best F-Strike% of his career at 64.4% this season, meaning he's pitching ahead in the count far more often than not.

He also passes the red flag test for the most part with a .300 BABIP and 77% strand rate. The only number that worries me a bit is a 7.7% HR/FB when his career average is 12%, and his groundball rate has bottomed out at a career-low 38.4%.

We can see that last year he made a major change to his arsenal, ditching his slider entirely for a "slurve" and going back to more four-seamers over sinkers. The slurve has been very effective with a 38% Whiff% last year and 33% this season.

This year, he's backed down on the four-seamer usage, which I think is a good idea since it's a very average fastball. But instead of increasing the sinker usage (he uses it exclusively against righties, and it's incredibly effective with a .192 xBA), he's added a cutter that he's throwing mainly to lefties.

The cutter has not been very effective against lefties, however, and neither has the fastball or change-up. His splits are pretty wide this year, with a 1.35 WHIP and .431 SLG allowed to lefties compared to just a 0.86 WHIP and .284 SLG allowed to righties.

He's going to have to solve that issue with lefties at some point, and I am not sure what the answer is for him there. I'd like to see him utilize the sinker more heavily against righties and embrace being a ground ball pitcher over strikeouts, as I think that would be a path towards sustaining his solid ratios.

Verdict: Soroka's elite control and ability to eat innings without getting blown up (just one "bad" start this season) are very valuable. But his profile suggests he's closer to a league-average arm than a top-100 fantasy player (currently 91). He feels like a little bit of a fake-out, but I also don't expect him to fall off a cliff entirely either.

Just make sure to value him properly. I wouldn't overpay for Soroka in a trade, and I'd also consider selling high if you already have him rostered.

Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles

• 56% Rostered
• 2025 stats: 166.1 IP, 4.87 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 24.8% K%, 9.0% BB%
• 2026 stats: 77 IP, 4.09 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 19.9% K%, 9.1% BB%

Baz's first season in Baltimore was off to quite a rocky start before a recent stretch of solid outings (1.75 ERA over his last four starts) put him firmly back on fantasy managers' radar. I was pretty high on Baz coming into this season, and I thought the change of scenery would do him well, but he's been worse this year in just about every stat category other than his ERA so far.

The knuckle curve is still Baz's best pitch and calling card.

Shane Baz, Dirty 86mph Knuckle Curve...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/YFbfoIjAzr

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 2, 2026

But the rest of his arsenal has not been as sharp this season. He's seen his SwStr% drop to a career-low 8.7% and his Stuff+ rating drop to just 99 (from 105 last year). If we look at his pitch movement compared to last year, every pitch has lost some vertical and/or horizontal movement.

He's added a sinker to righties that has helped him to throw fewer four-seamers, but it's not a dynamic pitch at all, and he's only throwing it about 7% of the time.

The good news is that he's cut down on home runs allowed (just 0.92 HR/9 compared to 1.41 last season), but we also anticipated that with the move out of Tampa, where he pitched in a minor league stadium for home games.

When I zoom in on this last month of results, he doesn't appear to be doing anything majorly different in terms of his pitch mix or velocity. He did allow five runs against the Blue Jays in his last outing on seven hits, but just one of those runs was earned as he should have been out of the trouble he was in during the sixth inning when a double-play was not converted despite a Toronto baserunner leaving the basepath to avoid a tag.

So, I don't have any real answers here for why Baz has had slightly better results lately, but his overall body of work so far this year is still quite ordinary and disappointing.

Verdict: I'm not reading too much into his ratios over the last month. No increase in strikeouts or a major change in his approach can be found to account for the improvement, so it's likely a lot of good luck. He's certainly a pitcher with the type of talent to keep on your radar, but not a "must-roster" pitcher in 10-team leagues or shallower either.

Hunter Dobbins, St. Louis Cardinals

• 9% Rostered
• 2025 stats: 61 IP, 4.13 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 17.6% K%, 6.6% BB%
• 2026 stats: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 26.0% K%, 9.6% BB%

For our final pitcher, we go dumpster diving on the waiver wire with a pitcher rostered in fewer than 10% of Yahoo leagues. Hunter Dobbins is a second-year RHP who has made only two starts for the Cardinals this season, in addition to bulk relief appearances, after making 11 starts for the Red Sox in 2025.

Dobbins is an interesting arm for fantasy, as he's posted a strong 26% K% so far this year and a pretty decent ERA of 3.63, backed by a 3.50 SIERA.

His 2025 campaign in Boston was pretty mediocre all around, but he's missing bats more often this year so far, raising his SwStr% nearly a full point and dropping his Z-Contact% by three points (down to a very respectable 86%). His Stuff+ grade has improved from 97 to 101, with noticeable improvements to his slider, curveball, and sinker.

Daily tjStuff+ Starters Leaders
2026-06-11
Min. 50 Pitches

1) Hunter Dobbins - 101
2) Kyle Bradish - 101
3) Tyler Phillips - 101 pic.twitter.com/5K83OsneHF

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) June 12, 2026

This year, Dobbins has lowered his fastball and sinker usage, while throwing his secondary stuff more often. We don't see pitchers who throw six different pitches all 10% or more all that often, so Dobbins' unique and balanced arsenal is intriguing at least.

His top two pitches to hitters of both handedness are his four-seamer and slider, while he goes sinker/sweeper to righties and then splitter/curveball to lefties. The curveball is arguably his best pitch (45.5% Whiff%), though he also uses it the least (10%).

The two red flags that I see, that I will be monitoring closely, are his 86% strand rate and 5.33 xERA. Both metrics suggest that he is more likely a 4+ ERA pitcher, but we are dealing with super small samples here, so a couple really hard hit balls can inflate his xERA, too. He finished last year with a 3.94 xERA, which was actually lower than his 4.13 ERA, so he has a little bit of a history with good batted ball results.

The other issue here is job security. Right now, he's the sixth starter for the Cardinals, and he could be moved back into a long-man role at some point. I think he has more upside as a starter than someone like Andre Pallante, but I am also not the manager of the Cardinals.

Verdict: Play this one by ear. If Dobbins gets another start, it would be a good matchup against the Padres next week. He makes for a solid spot starter or streamer in the short term, and has a unique profile that suggests he has the potential to provide some value in deeper leagues if these improvements stick.

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