RADIO
Wednesday DFS is gracing us with a split-slate once again. We've got a four game Early Only slate starting at 2:05 and a healthy nine-gamer for the Main at 7:05 tonight. Lots to unpack here!
I'll update my Vegas section with new lines and heavy line movement as it happens. As for now, those with the highest projected run totals are as follows: Rockies (5.6, Early), Mariners (5.3 - Early), Oakland (5.2), Milwaukee (4.9) and the Dodgers at 4.8. As for moneylive favorites, we have some absolutely massive ones, starting with the Dodgers at -375 (!!), Asros (-213, Early), Nationals (-152, Early), and the Rockies (-152, Early).
You can also read more DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me on Twitter @kpLuch.
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FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Max Scherzer - SP, at SFG ($11,500) - Early
Outside of the price discount and being a bit higher moneyline favorite, Scherzer has the edge over Verlander for me in just about every category. When it comes down to it, it's worth it to pay the extra $500 for Scherzer to get the better pitcher's park, better pitching weather, softer lineup/opponent and more strikeout prone opponent. Truth be told, neither of these teams are too strikeout heavy - the projected San Francisco lineup has just a 23% strikeout rate against righties this season, but Scherzer does have the K/9 edge by quite a bit (12.4 compared to 9.9) and I like his chances of going deeper in this start than Verlander, too. So far in 2018, Scherzer has been masterful at limiting hard contact (21%) and average exit velocity (85 MPH). He's a very strong cash game option and on the Early slate, he can be used in tournaments as well because of the strikeout upside.
Also Consider for Early Slate: Jon Gray - SP, vs SDP ($7,500) - GPP
Clayton Kershaw - SP, vs MIA ($11,400) - Main
In cash games tonight, there is Clayton Kershaw, a gap, and then everyone else (who all have higher risk due to opponent, I might add). Kershaw and the Dodgers are not only enormous favorites tonight, but the Marlins also have the lowest run projection by more than a run less than the rest of the bottom of the barrel (currently at 2.4). The Marlins have really struggled against lefties this season, ranking 21st in the cumulative ranks and have hit just three home runs all year. They also happen to be pretty strikeout friendly, which makes me believe Kershaw shouldn't have trouble paying off this price tag. For the season, he's been excellent at inducing ground balls (64%) and pretty damn good at limiting hard contact (22%).
Also Consider for Main Slate: Eduardo Rodriguez - SP, at TOR ($7,100) - GPP
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Chris Iannetta - C, vs SDP ($3,200) - Early
Iannetta finds himself in a wonderful spot today. He's projected to hit near the top of the order with the highest run projection of the day, facing a pitcher in Tyson Ross that seems to have lost his way. Iannetta brings pretty strong splits to the table, too, posting a .376 wOBA and a .265 ISO against right-handed pitching in the last season.
Ryan Zimmerman - 1B, at SFG ($2,900) - Early
Zimmerman offers a nice price discount on this early slate (which we'll need to afford top tier pitching) and has been absolutely smoking the ball. Entering today, he owns a 59% hard hit rate and he's always been a great hitter against right-handed pitching, as you can see from this splits - .345 wOBA and a .243 ISO.
Yoan Moncada - 2B, vs SEA ($3,800) - Early
We have some interesting decisions to make at second base in the early slate. Both DJ Lemahieu and Jose Altuve are in good spots matchup-wise, but LeMahieu's splits leave something to be desired and both are quite pricy. Moncada doesn't offer too much of a discount, but he is under 4K on a day where lineup construction will be more difficult because of the elite pitching and he is hot right now, having homered in three of his last six games. He also boasts a strong .341 wOBA and brings upside to the table with his .202 ISO split.
Joey Gallo - 1B, vs OAK ($3,900) - Main
This Gallo emergence has been quite fun, hasn't it? It looks like the big lefty has corrected enough of his swing mechanics that he can be an everyday regular in The Show. Tonight, Gallo has a wonderful matchup against Kendall Graveman, who has struggled mightily this year with a wild 1.6 WHIP and allowing 1.4 HR/9. Gallo has fantastic power against right-handed pitching, as showcased by his .302 ISO split. He may send a few balls into orbit this evening in Arlington.
Tim Beckham - 2B, vs BAL ($2,400) - Main
Very similar to the Early slate, there are a handful of second basemen that I like. The problem is that they are extremely pricey (some over-priced) and I'd rather spend up elsewhere. I'm going to buy low on the struggling Beckham, who hits atop of the Orioles order that is currently projected for 4.5 runs - not the highest total, but certainly not a team total to shy away from. Faria is a pitcher who has good stuff, but he tends to run into trouble and doing so today could lead to a crazy high return on investment on Beckham's price tag. For the past year, his splits against right-handed pitching (.325 wOBA, .170 ISO) are solid and in the last 10 days, his batted ball exit velocity sits at 91 MPH.
Corey Seager - SS, vs MIA ($3,400) - Main
He is certainly a more adept hitter against righties, but I still think Seager is underpriced for this matchup. He's got a .344 wOBA split over the past year against southpaws and enters this game on a hard-hit tear, with 38% of his contact in the last 10 days qualifying as such. The 26% line drive rate and batted ball distance over 220 feet in that same stretch shows he is squaring up the ball well, too.
Drew Robinson - SS, vs OAK ($2,100) - Main
I prefer Seager at shortstop, but if spending up elsewhere or money happens to be tight - Robinson is a good bargain-bin play this evening. As I mentioned, opposing pitcher Kendall Graveman has struggled, and Robinson hits right-handed pitching well. His splits show us that his wOBA and ISO marks are more than .25 and .150 points higher, respectively, than when facing a lefty. That's an enormous ISO split. Seeing as the Rangers have one of the loftiest run projections of the evening, I'd say there is relatively great lineup context as well.
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Nelson Cruz - OF, at CWS ($3,800) - Early
Mr. Cruz and his teammates get a nice offensive park upgrade this afternoon and a date with James Shields. We know Shields is very hittable, but he can be a bit deceptive at times and keep hitters off balance. He's managed to keep the ball in the yard this season for the most part, but he has been wild and that has resulted in big innings. I'll take my chances with Cruz as he's a nice discount compared to other outfielders of his stature, and boasts a .310 ISO split in the last year and a 36% hard hit rate in his last 10 games.
Nicky Delmonico - OF, vs SEA ($2,400) - Early
Delmonico profiles similarly to Zimmerman for me - not the perfect matchup, but a nice price discount, especially considering the lineup context. In this price tier, it's difficult to find anyone with as much upside as Delmonico, who has shown an ability to hit right-handed pitching consistently well (.365) and with some upside (.212 ISO split).
Also Consider for Early Slate: Wil Myers - OF, at SDP ($3,400)
Also Consider for Main Slate: Christian Yelich - OF, at KCR ($4,100); Rhys Hoskins - OF, vs ARI ($4,800) - GPP only
