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Which early-season studs for fantasy baseball can maintain their production? Joshua discusses which draft steals can continue their early success.
Now that we are over two months into the season, it's time to reflect on which early-season risers can stick around their current value.
In this article, I will discuss three hitters and three pitchers that have performed above expectations this season. Of those players, I will share who I believe can continue their production and who I believe cannot and will surely suffer the inevitable regression.
Without further ado, let's get into the analysis, shall we?
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Top Hitter Draft Values
Nolan Gorman, 2B/DH, St Louis Cardinals
Coming into the season, Nolan Gorman appeared to be a platoon hitter, sitting against left-handed pitching. With Brendan Donovan winning the starting job at second base and Cardinals top prospect Jordan Walker making the Opening Day roster, Gorman seemed to be the rotating DH and backup second baseman. Early season struggles and injuries paved the way for Gorman to get more playing time, and he has not looked back since.
The young slugger is in the midst of a slump, going 3-for-32 (.094) in his last 10 games, but he is still among the hardest-hitting players in baseball during that time. Gorman is 80th percentile or better in Average Exit Velocity, Max Exit Velocity, HardHit%, xSLG, and Barrel%. One of the biggest concerns surrounding Gorman's ability to maintain his production is his strikeout rate of over 30%. That amount of swing-and-miss is more than you'd like to see, but there are some positives.
Gorman lowered his strikeout rate by nearly 3% from last season while increasing his walk rate by 3%. The 23-year-old's Average Exit Velocity is up almost two mph from last season. There will be growing pains, but Gorman has the talent to continue being one of the best power bats in baseball. As long as Gorman can limit the cold streaks, he should remain one of the top options at second base.
Lane Thomas, OF, Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals outfielder Lane Thomas has undoubtedly been one of the season's biggest surprises. The 27-year-old has slashed .286/.338/.463 with nine home runs, 15 doubles, and 31 RBI through 66 games. Fantasy managers who drafted Thomas late or picked him off the waiver wire must be delighted with his production level.
The Nationals' leadoff hitter has been on fire lately, collecting hits in all but two games in June, including four multi-hit performances. It has been a great story so far, and as much as I'd like to see it continue, this production is unsustainable.
The first stat I want to point to is his .360 BABIP, which is dramatically higher than any other season despite no significant differences to his batted ball data. The BB/K rate is also attractive since it is the lowest of his career. In 2023, Thomas has a lower Contact% and higher Whiff% than his past two seasons. His xBA sits at .252, which is closer to the hitter he should be the rest of the way. I recommend selling high. If not, you can ride the hot streak.
Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Miami Marlins
Soler has been one of the best power hitters in baseball for some time now, and it seems he's in the midst of his best season yet.
On Wednesday, Soler became the third player to reach 20 home runs this season. The home runs have always been there for Soler; the health is what has held him back in the past. Coming off his 2022 season, which ended due to a back injury, there were concerns regarding Soler's ability to stay healthy and productive. The 31-year-old slugger has laid those concerns to rest so far. He remains among the hardest hitters, with a Max Exit Velocity of 114.8 mph and a .570 xSLG.
In 2023, Soler has slashed .258/.357/.564 with 20 home runs, 12 doubles, and 40 RBI. The last time the veteran outfielder produced at this level was the 2019 juiced ball season when he hit 48 home runs. With his pace, Soler could approach that home run total this season. The most impressive stats for Soler are his 24.6% strikeout rate and 11.8% walk rate, both of which are the best of his career. I expect Soler to continue being one of the best power hitters in the league, even if he slumps a bit.
Top Pitcher Draft Values
Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi is amid a breakout season, which might be real.
Eovaldi's relocation to Texas gives me confidence about his rest-of-season outlook. This season, Eovaldi has increased his ground ball rate to over 50% for the first time since 2015. In his last few seasons with the Boston Red Sox, he had some of the worst defenses behind him and likely did not trust them to make plays for him. Another glaring stat is his career-low 5.4% HR/FB%, which could be attributed to some luck but is also helped by the fact he isn't playing at Fenway Park anymore.
The 33-year-old has maintained a solid 8.62 K/9 while also being able to pitch to contact. That combination of skills has allowed the right-hander to pitch deep into games this season consistently. Through 14 starts, Eovaldi has surpassed five innings in every start, including six outings of seven-plus innings and two complete games. The Texas Rangers are one of the best teams in baseball on both sides of the ball, and Eovaldi will continue to be a beneficiary.
Jon Gray, SP, Texas Rangers
Jon Gray is another Rangers starting pitcher amid his best season, but I'm not as sure about him.
On the season, Gray owns a 2.32 ERA, which would be his best mark since he has never finished a season with an ERA below 3.00. The 31-year-old also owns the second-lowest K/9 of his career at 7.70. The veteran pitcher has also changed his approach, inducing his career's highest fly ball rate at 40.4% and only allowing a HR/FB% of 11.5%. During Gray's best season in 2017, he induced a ground ball rate of 48.9% with a 9.14 K/9. In 2023, Gray has reinvented himself with the Rangers.
One of the biggest things that stands out to me is the extremely low BABIP of .226, far below his next lowest BABIP last season of .271. Gray is also leaving runners on base at a level that he never has before, 88.3% LOB% this season compared to his next highest of 75.9% in 2019. The veteran pitcher's xFIP and SIERA are also 4.27 and 4.23, respectively, indicating that regression is likely coming.
Even though I am not entirely convinced, there is some optimism surrounding Gray. Lance Brozdowski broke down a new pitch that Gray has featured during his current dominant stretch. The right-hander has switched from a sweeper to a "gyro" slider, which has had great results. I suggest selling Gray high, but if you cannot get what you're looking for, Gray's new pitch development and overall team context are intriguing enough to hold onto.
Mitch Keller, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
The last player on this list is the NL Central-leading Pittsburgh Pirates breakout pitcher. Mitch Keller was one of many popular sleepers around draft season and is proving many people right this year.
Keller has been nasty this season, with 101 strikeouts in 87 innings. The right-hander has been able to pitch deep into games often, going at least six innings in 11 of 14 starts, including a complete game shutout. His ERA is 3.41, but that's mainly due to a few blow-up starts. Keller has been a consistent run-preventer, allowing four or more earned runs only four times. The 27-year-old induces a 46.5% GB% and leaves runners on base 73.7% of the time. Keller's expected stats are also favorable.
The Pirates' starter is striking batters out, not walking many, and not allowing much hard contact this season. His xFIP and SIERA are also 3.27 and 3.39, respectively, which support his current production level. Keller's breakout appears legitimate, and fantasy managers should be excited to see what's in store for him.
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