X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Values for Fantasy Baseball: NL Starting Pitchers

What's up RotoBallers. Welcome back to another article in our series of early ADP value analysis for fantasy baseball.

Today, we'll cover some undervalued and overvalued NL starting pitchers, to try and help identify draft targets and avoids based on ADP.

Opening Day is still over two months away, but it's never too soon for draft prep. ADP data from early NFBC rankings can give us a glimpse into what other owners are thinking heading into a new campaign.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Undervalued NL Starting Pitchers

Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks (ADP: 98)

Look, there's no getting around this: Greinke's ERA went up by nearly three runs last year compared to his transcendent 2015. Some of that increase was fait accompli, of course. Greinke had enjoyed a friendly home park, excellent defense, and crazy good fortune in Los Angeles, and none of that was likely to be waiting for him in Arizona. But you'd have won a lot of money if you'd wagered that Greinke's ERA would begin with a four. All the aforementioned factors swung in the other direction for him, and he also got hurt. Before the injury, though, Greinke was having a year that was more or less standard issue:

ERA

WHIP

HR/9

K%

BB%

2016 Pre-Injury

3.62 1.16 0.99 20.3

4.7

Career

3.42 1.19 0.87 21.8

5.9

 
Have reservations about a 33 year old coming off shoulder issues? Fair enough. But Greinke's been a reliable fantasy arm for most of the last decade, and 2016 was a perfect storm of bad breaks. There's profit potential at the current price.

Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates (ADP: 117)

As a sequel to his breakout in 2015, Cole's performance last year was less The Empires Strikes Back and more The Matrix Reloaded. His ratios rose sharply and his strikeout percentage took a dive. How much of that was due to the elbow problems he experienced is tough to say definitively, It seems like a logical assumption that it played a significant role. Then again, Cole's velocity and most of his peripherals stayed constant from the prior year, so maybe the 40-point jump in BABIP and some rotten sequencing were culprits as well. Regardless, he's on his normal offseason routine with no issues so far, which is excellent news. Cole is just 26, has a favorable team and park context, and we've seen him reach his potential already. This is a overly generous injury discount.

Rich Hill, Los Angeles Dodgers (ADP: 135)

Speaking of injury discounts, the market is naturally pricing in Hill's high risk. Thanks to multiple blisters (the price you pay for those beautiful and multitudinous curveballs, because life is nothing if not cruel and unyielding), Hill logged just 110 innings last season. Now, those innings were of superior quality, but they also represented his high water mark for the last decade. You simply can't reasonably expect 180 innings from the man. 150 might be a stretch. But a repeat of last year plus some smart streaming could easily add up to a full-season ace at a bargain price.

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP: 220)

In his first full big-league season, Nola maintained his solid walk rate while adding several percentage points to his K% and cutting down on home runs. Under normal circumstances, he'd be somebody for whom we were all paying an expectant price. Unfortunately, an elbow injury and a co(s)mically horrible strand rate conspired to wreck his ERA and ultimately, ended his season. Recent reports indicate that he'll enter spring training with no restrictions. Nola was in the midst of a breakout before the injury. The risk at this price is minimal, and the profit potential immense.

 

Overvalued NL Starting Pitchers

Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs (ADP: 67)

Here's what I wrote about Hendricks back in November. The current price tag certainly isn't surprising, but it is one I'm not likely to pay in any of my drafts this year. Tough not to feel like he could be this year's Dallas Keuchel.

Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals (ADP: 73)

Martinez turned in his second consecutive season with an ERA just above 3.00 and shaved a few points off his WHIP, but he really didn't show much improvement over the previous season. His walk rate remained middling, his batted ball data didn't budge much, and his K% actually fell by three points. Most importantly, he continued to have problems with left-handed hitters. Make no mistake - the current model is a good pitcher. This just feels a couple rounds early for him. You're paying for a breakout that may not be coming.

Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh Pirates (ADP: 150)

Taillon returned from the dead  the hinterlands of Siberia two injury-wiped seasons to post impressive results, first at Triple-A and then the majors. Thanks largely to an exceptional walk rate, the former top prospect gave owners who rolled the dice some solid ratios (3.38 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) in just over 100 MLB innings. It's always nice to see someone persevere against injury, especially early in their career. There are some lingering concerns with Taillon from a fantasy perspective, however. He's never thrown more than 165 innings he did last season, and after a two-year layoff, it's fair to wonder how many frames he can be counted on for in 2017. Taillon also didn't pile up many strikeouts despite his success, which limits his ceiling. There are several pitchers going a few rounds later whose upside is more worthy of a gamble.

 

More Undervalued & Overvalued Picks


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim From Injured List
Christian Moore

Placed on Injured List With Thumb Sprain
Luis L. Ortiz

the Subject of Gambling Investigation
Jordan Lawlar

to Miss Multiple Weeks With Hamstring Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Receives Encouraging News on his Hand
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Daron Payne

Commanders Coaches Impressed With Daron Payne
Danny Gray

Makes Impression During Offseason Workouts
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dane Belton

Should Have a Role in 2025
Kaiir Elam

Flashes During Offseason Workouts
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF