Daily Divide: Week 14

Nathan Powell and guest Aaron Swinderman each offer Week 14 cash game picks for every position, then the other insults or compliments those picks, as warranted. They hope their arguments debates provide enough information to make help people make sound decisions for their DFS lineups.

Nathan: Solid week 13 for us with Buck Allen going buck crazy and Cam Newton doing Cam Newton things

You can follow the amazing Nathan Powell on twitter: @NPowell -- and the guy coming in as clutch as a substitute teacher. Aaron Swinderman: @FFAaroneous. Aaron:

 

Nathan’s Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 14

QB: Russell Wilson at BAL

A lot of people are going on the cheap side of things at quarterback this week with Tyrod Taylor or Jameis Winston, but I am going with one of the hottest quarterbacks in fantasy, Russell Wilson. Wilson is going against a Baltimore defense that has been a target of DFS’ers all season long and he has thrown 11 touchdowns in his last 3 games. I expect this trend to continue against a defense that has given up the 9th most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. One reason for Wilson’s hot streak could actually be the absence of Marshawn Lynch. Per the Rotoviz Game Split App, Wilson is averaging 30.71 points in 5 games with Lynch out while only scoring 20.4 points per game in the 7 games with Lynch in the lineup.

Stacking: Doug Baldwin is really the only stacking option here and at his price point that seems like a bit of point chasing. So I'm going with a naked Russell this week, but Cierra wouldn't know anything about that.

Aaron: Russell Wilson is an excellent candidate for DFS play as he is likely to be slightly underowned since he isn’t the typical chalk brought to you by Jameis or Tyrod but faces a strong run defense with a weak secondary which leads to the funnelling of the Seattle offense.

 

RB: Doug Martin vs NO

Doug Martin has been one of the best backs in the NFL this season, albeit that may be because he is one of the last ones standing(crosses fingers and knocks on wood), and he is the the RB4 in PPR on the season with 4 games of 20+ PPR points or more. The Buccaneers have the highest team totals of the week at 27.5 in a home matchup against a defense that has surrendered the 2nd most fantasy points to running backs so far this season. The Buccaneers are a team that you want to have exposure to this weekend and playing Martin is my favorite way of doing that.

Aaron: Once again, Nathan makes an excellent selection with Martin against a very bad defense in New Orleans. If the Bucs get ahead, expect him to make a great showing. In fact, given Tampa Bay’s conservative nature on the offensive end, it is not unlikely that Martin proves to be the play in that offense over Jameis. Either way, RB on a home favorite in a divisional game is almost always a good play

 

WR: Sammy Watkins at PHI

First of all, I picked Watkins before I knew Aaron would be subbing in for Matt, which is pretty hilarious since Aaron has never been his biggest fan. Anyways, Watkins is priced in the mid tier of wide receivers with top tier scoring ability this week. Per Adam Harstad, since Tyrod Taylor returned in week 9, Taylor is averaging 13.94 yards per attempt to Watkins while only throwing for 5.99 yards per attempt to other receivers. In other words, Taylor knows where his bread is buttered and I expect him to target Watkins early and often against an Eagles defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season

Stacking: Tyrod Taylor is one of my favorite quarterback plays of the weekend. Stack em up here, to be honest.

Aaron: Yes, I can’t stand Sammy Watkins and I do not think he is anywhere near as good as everyone has wanted him to be. That’s all relative and is besides the point here. Sammy has been incredibly productive over the last couple of weeks and is going up against an awful pass defense as Tyrod’s top weapon on the outside. That said, Watkins has not been receiving many red zone targets and has been doing his damage on the deep ball. He is an inconsistent play which makes me hesitant on him in cash games particularly because he doesn’t have the size that some of the recent wide receivers that have dominated this Eagles secondary have had

 

TE: Zach Miller vs WAS

Only two real targets in the offense at wide receiver/tight end with Bennett out for the year and Marquess Wilson likely out. When Bennett has been hurt or out from weeks 10-12, Miller has been a feature part of the offense. Miller is averaging 6 targets and 14.8 PPR points per game in those 3 games. At minimum or near minimum price on most sites, Miller has the kind of floor that can help you build a great cash lineup while spending very little at tight end. He has been limited in practice this week so be sure to check the injury reports, but he played through the rib injury last Sunday. Stacking: There are way too many great quarterback values to be considering Mr. Cutler .

Aaron: This week is UGLY for tight end. I am unlikely to play any passing weapons from this game given the 100% chance of rain and winds that could be around 20 MPH. Really a bummer, because Reed and Miller are two fun options at the position, but this game is much more likely to turn into a grind ‘em out game on the ground.

 

 

Aaron’s DFS Picks for Week Fourteen

QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick vs Titans

I’m going to go with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitz is going up against a Titans defense that just got shredded by Blake Bortles. Even in mediocre matchups Fitz has a fairly strong floor as, if you take out the game he got injured early, he is averaging approximately 20.5 points per game which would easily pay off his salary on both sites. Additionally, he destroyed this same defense last year for a huge game with a worse offense than he’s working with this year. He has strong chemistry with both Decker and Marshall and this offense has become very predictable. They work it to the two major wideouts while hoping Ivory can help grind it and take some pressure off the passing game. Fitz may not have sky high upside, but he still has some and has a very safe floor.

Stacking: Both great options this weekend regardless of who you play at QB, Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker both make fantastic stacking options in cash. This may even be a week you can stack all three in tourney lineups and hope for the best.

Nathan: Fitzpatrick is definitely a solid option this week against a defense that was just shredded by Blake Bortles, we could see more of the same from the bearded man this weekend.

 

RB: Shaun Draughn at CLE

My selection is awfully chalky, but I really like Shaun Draughn. Draughn is getting a large percentage of his team’s workload and sets a high floor with his receptions. Over the last four weeks, Draughn has gotten 20, 20, 20, and 18 touches while being targeted 5, 11, 5, 6 times in the passing game. Those are workhorse numbers, folks. Add in that he is facing a bottom rushing defense/generally poor offense in Cleveland (29th in rushing DVOA), and I expect this game to be a grind. While I think Draughn is very likely to score a touchdown, he could easily hit value without one.

Nathan: Playing a running back who I don’t think is good at football isn’t my favorite thing in the world, but it is necessary here for a back who is getting a lot of touches against a bad defense.

 

WR: Antonio Brown v. Cincinnati Bengals

The question of late has come to be which stud WR(s) should I put into my lineup? Well, the answer every week is Antonio Brown. With Roethlisberger as his starting quarterback, Brown is averaging 9.5/134/1 in 8 games. He would essentially hit value with those numbers without the touchdowns. I know that the last time these two teams played the offense did not show up, but it was Ben’s first start off an injury and Brown still found the end zone there. Don’t overthink it, Brown is the go to guy in the passing game and he has as safe of a floor and as high of a ceiling as anyone

Stacking: Big Ben and Antonio Brown will always be a great stacking option. That said, if you’re stacking with Ben and looking to be at least a little contrarian, I probably prefer to play Ben and Martavis (who I also really like) together.

Nathan:Antonio Brown scores lots of fantasy points. And he will definitely do that against a banged up Bengals secondary.

 

TE: Austin Seferian-Jenkins vs NOS

As I stated earlier, I hate tight ends this week. Granted, I hate tight ends almost every week. I often prefer playing the cheapest viable TE I can because of the variance that comes within the position and pay for my security elsewhere. This week, particularly on DraftKings, that cheap option also is going against the worst defense in the NFL at covering the position, as the Saints allow the most fantasy points to the position. Jameis has consistently been throwing to his tight ends all season, and while ASJ played limited snaps, he received 6 targets, 2nd most on the team behind Evans’ 7, in his first game back from an extended injury. Pay attention to news, but I’d expect an uptick in snaps and usage and if this game is as high scoring as is suggested, I expect him to meet my expectations and more.

Stacking: While a lot of people will be stacking Jameis with Evans, I’m not overly interested in paying Evans’ price with all of the Bucs’ weapons healthy. If I’m going to stack, I’m going the cheap option. That said, I probably won’t be stacking ASJ with Winston in any of my games.

Nathan: This is a good week for cheap tight end, on sites where Miller and Seferian-Jenkins are close in price, going with Seferian-Jenkins may be the better play to avoid weather concerns.

 

Watch The Pricing, But We Also Like

Nathan likes: Tyrod Taylor, Lesean McCoy, Shaun Draughn, Eric Decker, Devante Parker, Odell Beckham, Austin Seferian-Jenkins

Aaron likes: Big Ben, LeSean McCoy, Jonathan Stewart, Doug Baldwin, Odell Beckham Jr., Martavis Bryant, and Tyler Eifert.

 

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