College Football Predictions: ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania Picks 2025

December 12, 2025

Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania for the 2025 bowl season. Compete with the reader's group to win premium access to our college football content for 2026!

ESPN's College Pick Em may have ended, but now we get Pick Em on steroids in the form of Capital One Bowl Mania. All you have to do is pick the winner of all 46 bowl and playoff games and assign a point value based on the confidence in each one of them from 1 to 46. The entry with the most points wins bragging rights with other RotoBaller readers....and FREE premium access to our college football content for the 2026 season. That includes access to the DFS optimizers and Discord chat to help with lineup decisions. Do I have your attention now? Join in on the fun here!

Opting out of bowl games has become all the rage lately, so make sure you stay on top of those developments here. We even have entire teams opting out of bowl games this year.

Capital One Bowl Mania starts on December 13, and each game locks at kickoff. You can still move games around with others that haven't locked yet, which comes in handy since we have more playoff games without set matchups yet.

ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania Preview

This article will be for the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. If I move a game up or down, I will update on X/Twitter if I can and on here, so long as it doesn't muddle up the article too much.

I haven't moved a lot of things around in recent years, so that may be a viable option. Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (46). You know, for dramatic effect.

ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania Picks 2025

(1) South Carolina State over Prairie View A&M

I don't know much about either of these teams, so I'm not going to pretend as I do. It is also why I am leaving the selection this low. Two of South Carolina State's losses were to FBS schools (South Carolina and South Florida). Prairie View lost to Rice. That's good enough for me!

(2) Jacksonville State over Troy

Troy RB Tae Edwards is the only opt-out of this bowl so far. It seems like Goose Crowder is playing, which is why I have the confidence this low to begin with. FBS leading rusher Cam Cook is still expected to play as of this writing. That gives the Gamecocks the edge.

(3) Ohio over UNLV

As of now, Parker Navarro and Sieh Bangura plan on closing out their Ohio careers in the bowl game. The Ohio defense is going to be a problem, and I'll be surprised if Jai'Den Thomas doesn't opt out of this game.

I have no inside information or anything like that, but if anyone is opting out, it would be Jet. Jaden Bradley is a close second. Both play for UNLV. I may move this up higher depending on who chooses not to play.

(4) Toledo over Louisville

Toledo lost to the Kentucky team that was blown out by Louisville to close the regular season with pretty much the same personnel they'll have in the bowl game. Chip Trayanum is expected to play in his final game for Toledo.

Louisville’s Chris Bell, one of the top receiver prospects in the upcoming NFL draft, suffered a torn ACL in a game at SMU on Nov. 22, per @PeteThamel and me. In his latest mock draft, ESPN’s Field Yates projected Bell as a first-round pick.

Bell is a 6-foot-2, 220-pound wide… pic.twitter.com/LsPDHQWnzG

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 11, 2025

It's a different story on the Louisville side of the ball. Chris Bell likely would have opted out of this game anyway, and the consensus on Louisville fanboards is that Isaac Brown also suffered an ACL injury back in October. The Cardinals are down to a fourth-string running back.

The public is still very heavy on a Louisville team that manhandled a lame-duck Kentucky team. I expect Toledo to show up here.

(5) East Carolina over Pittsburgh *UPDATED - Moved up to 29 and switched to Pittsburgh*

Pitt will have Mason Heintschel, but I'll be shocked if Desmond Reid plays. Katin Houser has entered the transfer portal and will not play for the Pirates. He was the whole team. What could have been an entertaining game will likely be a blowout since leading receiver Yannick Smith is out the door with Houser.

(6) Northwestern over Central Michigan

It looks like Griffin Wilde and Caleb Komolafe are playing for Northwestern. That's good enough for me, even if Preston Stone turns it over a few times.

(7) Kennesaw State over Western Michigan

There likely won't be any opt-outs in this game. Just two teams that want to play football. Kennesaw finished 2-10 in its first season of FBS football last year. They fired the architect of the team who helped build an FCS power after the transition to FBS.

The Owls replaced him with some guy named Jerry Mack. All Mack did was lead the Owls to the Conference USA title and a 10-win season. Mack was rewarded with a six-year deal. I hope it has a good enough buyout in it to make Kennesaw rich when the Power 4 vultures start circling.

(8) Fresno State over Miami (OH)

The Redhawks will be without Dequan Finn and WR Kam Perry. Henry Hesson was solid after Finn left the team to concentrate on the NFL Draft, but Perry is going to be a tough one to overcome.

(9) Duke over Arizona State

I was on the other side of this one until the opt-outs started coming in. We knew that Sam Leavitt wasn't going to play. The somewhat surprising one is Chamon Metayer sitting this one out.

Jeff Sims has been capable of leading this team, but who's he going to throw to? I would bet that Jordyn Tyson sits this one out as well, especially with Chris Bell's injury knocking him down draft boards. Tyson has already declared for the draft. An opt-out feels imminent.

(10) Old Dominion over South Florida

This was one of the games that I was really looking forward to, but not anymore. Both quarterbacks (Colton Joseph of Old Dominion and Byrum Brown of South Florida) have opted out of this game. Most think that Brown is following former South Florida coach Alex Golesh to Auburn.

USF Bulls QB Byrum Brown will not play in the Cure Bowl in Orlando Dec. 17th. He will be on the sideline helping the coaching staff. Gaston Moore will be the Bulls QB. Brown has 1 year left of eligibility. Will he stay or will he go? #usffootball #ByrumBrown #dougmilesmedia

— Doug Miles (@DougMilesMedia) December 11, 2025

The interesting part about this is that Brown will be helping to coach the offense with most of the gutted staff off to Auburn. Joseph opting out of the bowl game is a sure sign that he is hitting the transfer portal.

Backup Quinn Henicle has mostly been used as a running quarterback behind Joseph, running for 278 yards last year and 102 yards this year. That kind of experience should help Old Dominion here.

The public is very heavy on USF at 92%. FPI (71.6%) still favors South Florida, but we've just scratched the surface of the players on the Bulls who will ultimately transfer. ODU is a much safer pick, and we should gain some solid points on the field.

(11) Indiana over Alabama/Oklahoma

This is by far the toughest quarterfinal on paper. I think Alabama wins, but a good game for either one of those teams and a below-average one for Indiana could thwart the miracle season.

(12) Louisiana over Delaware

I want to pick Delaware here, and I might have done it if the game weren't in Mobile. A lot of Louisiana fans will make the trek to this one.

(13) Mississippi State over Wake Forest

Wake was a big part of all the ACC chaos. The Demon Deacons beat Virginia and SMU. Mississippi State took Tennessee and Texas to overtime. Quarterback Blake Shapen has left the team, but he wasn't going to start anyway. Kamario Taylor, with a few weeks of prep, is going to be a problem for Wake.

(14) Minnesota over New Mexico

I don't know what to do with Minnesota. They looked really good against Nebraska. They looked really bad against Iowa. Half of New Mexico's team from last year is at Utah, and the Lobos still won nine games. This is going to be a tough one.

(15) Ohio State/Miami/Texas A&M over Georgia/Mississippi/Tulane

Ole Miss smashed Tulane, and Georgia beat Ole Miss during the regular season. It seems likely that Georgia will make it to this game. If the Bulldogs play Ohio State, it's not a good matchup. If they get A&M or Miami, I still have a few slots to move this up to with this being the first semifinal game.

(16) Texas Tech/Oregon/James Madison over Indiana/Oklahoma/Alabama

I'm picking this with the assumption that it's Texas Tech playing one of the other three teams. Indiana is the only team that would give the Red Raiders a fight. I have a couple of slots to move this down if I need them.

(17) Connecticut over Army *UPDATED - switched to Army*

UConn won the Fenway Bowl last year, but it will look very different in it this year. Last year's offensive MVP Joe Fagnano has opted out and will only play in the American Bowl to try to get NFL scouts to look his way.

UConn QB Joe Fagnano's national passing ranks:

15th in completion % (69%)
7th in passing yards
T-6th in passing TDs
12th in QB rating pic.twitter.com/X716YTzinX

— Storrs Central (@StorrsCentral) December 1, 2025

Fagnano threw just one interception all season, but Jim Mora Jr. left for Washington State and took most of the staff (and RB Cam Edwards) with him. Both Fagnano and Bell have left UConn high and dry. I may move this one up.

(18) Oklahoma over Alabama

Yes, we've seen this movie before. This is the third matchup between Oklahoma and Alabama in the last 13 months. Oklahoma is going for its third win in that span.

Stats from the last two matchups between Alabama and Oklahoma.

What needs to happen for the Crimson Tide to win in Norman and advance to the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals? pic.twitter.com/WgRYPIR6z7

— Cover Crimson (@CoverCrimson) December 11, 2025

I'm nervous because it's hard to beat a good team twice in the same season. Alabama outgained Oklahoma by over 200 yards in the first meeting in Tuscaloosa this year, and the defense didn't allow a drive of more than 47 yards. They still lost. If Oklahoma doesn't get turnovers, it'll lose this game.

I have no clue why the committee wanted another rematch. It could just as easily move Alabama to 10 and Miami to 9.

(19) Indiana/Texas Tech/Oregon/Oklahoma/Alabama/James Madison over Ohio State/Georgia/Mississippi/Texas A&M/Miami/Tulane

I'm on record as saying that Texas Tech is the most complete team in the country, and I had Indiana ranked at the top since the win over Oregon. I feel pretty good about the winner coming from that pool of teams.

(20) Arizona over SMU

Opt-outs could alter this, but I feel pretty good about Noah Fifita and at least one of the Arizona running backs playing in this game. That should be enough.

(21) USC over TCU

I don't trust the USC defense, but I don't trust Josh Hoover either. The only thing that would flip me to TCU is a mass exodus of players from USC. That doesn't seem likely.

(22) Georgia over Mississippi/Tulane

The Bulldogs won the first meeting against Ole Miss by eight. The players may be the same, but the scheme is different. Will that make a difference? For the worse, maybe.

(23) North Texas over San Diego State

Lost in the G5 convo this week is amazing season of North Texas QB Drew Mestemaker - becomes just 5th freshman to surpass 4000 pass yrs and CJ Stroud’s record is within reach.

Burlsworth Trophy winner as top former walk-on didn’t start single varsity game at QB in high school… pic.twitter.com/7JT1T3XDyN

— So, About that Stat… (@soaboutthatstat) December 9, 2025

We're still a way out from this one, and it makes me nervous. I'll be surprised if Drew Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins, and Chase Young don't follow Eric Morris to Stillwater. That would mean that any or all of them could opt out. Watch this one closely.

(24) Texas A&M over Miami (FL)

This has little to do with A&M and everything to do with the struggles of Carson Beck in road and neutral site games.

(25) Utah State over Washington State

We don't really know how many more Cougars will follow Jimmy Rogers to Iowa State. What we do know is that Bryson Barnes will play his final game for Utah State.

(26) Western Kentucky over Southern Mississippi

I was really hoping we would get a Top Gun Bowl (Western Kentucky's Maverick McIvor vs. Troy's Goose Crowder), but no such luck. We'll have to settle for Maverick against Braxton.

(27) Washington over Boise State

Jonah Coleman and Denzel Boston are likely opting out of this one, but Washington will still have Demond Williams Jr. and Adam Mohammed. That's more than enough to beat the Broncos.

(28) North Carolina State over Memphis *UPDATED - Moved down to 15*

Justin Joly and Hollywood Smothers have both opted out. It's CJ Bailey against the world. Memphis is without coach Ryan Silverfield, but both running backs (Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers Jr.) are in. It's time to move this one down.

(29) Oregon over James Madison

Uhhh is this real???

Oregon might be the slowest team we’ve ever seen. pic.twitter.com/ogyYSJ8vJ4

— JMU Sports News (@JMUSportsNews) December 11, 2025

The light-hearted trolling between James Madison and Oregon has been elite. Unfortunately, the game may not be. The Dukes are going to keep it close for a while, but will likely come up short.

(30) Hawaii over California

Much has been made about Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele's return home for a bowl game, but Hawaii lost just one game at home this year. They beat Stanford, a team that Cal lost to by 21. It's going to be tough sledding for the Bears in paradise.

(31) Vanderbilt over Iowa

I suppose there is a non-zero chance that Diego Pavia opts out, but I would be very shocked if he did. Clark Lea and Vanderbilt are attacking this game the way that every team should treat a bowl game.

(32) UTSA over Florida International

Rumors are swirling that Kejon Owens is opting out. I'm picking this as if he does. We know that Owen McCown is playing. The Roadrunners have a decided advantage.

(33) Clemson over Penn State

We aren't talking enough about how Penn State & Clemson went from the preseason Top 5 to playing in the Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl. 📉

Follow: @CSOonX pic.twitter.com/1EbTUmBjMp

— College Sports Only (@CSOonX) December 8, 2025

Many are excited about this game. Why? Penn State isn't. Nick Singleton and Zane Durant have opted out of Penn State, with others likely to follow. Drew Allar is hurt. We should get Cade Klubnik for Clemson, trying to salvage any bit of positive press that he can after his draft stock tanked this season. One team clearly wants this more.

(34) Houston over LSU

The game is in Houston, and the LSU opt-outs are already piling up. I may move this one up.

(35) Navy over Cincinnati

You know that no one from Navy will opt out, and Cincinnati didn't win a game in November. This one feels easy.

(36) Georgia Southern over Appalachian State

I'm all in on JC French IV and OJ Arnold's last ride for the Eagles.

(37) Tennessee over Illinois

Illinois may have a slight edge with Luke Altmyer over Joey Aguilar, but the Vols are better everywhere else.

(38) BYU over Georgia Tech

BYU feels snubbed again. Do you need a reminder of what they did last year when they also felt slighted?

🚨 36 DAYS TO COLLEGE FOOTBALL 🚨

In what might go down as the worst broadcast in CFB history, BYU defeated Colorado in the Alamo Bowl 36-14. A Parker Kingston punt return TD helped carry BYU to a confident win, despite the broadcast’s best efforts.

Buffs: 19 rushes, 2 yards pic.twitter.com/w5Hz95jzW0

— Indisputable Evidence (@indisputablecfb) July 18, 2025

(39) Texas State over Rice

Rice runs an option, and a bad one. Texas State is going to put a lot of points on the board.

(40) Texas Tech over Oregon/James Madison

Texas Tech has better wins than Oregon and pulverized every team they beat. The one loss was on the road to a full-strength Arizona State without starting QB Behren Morton. This may not be close.

(41) Louisiana Tech over Coastal Carolina

Coastal was a mess all season long. How in the world did this team win six games?

(42) Ohio State over Miami/Texas A&M

This is a terrible matchup for either Miami or A&M...but especially Miami.

(43) Missouri over Virginia

Ahmad Hardy is only a sophomore, so no opt-outs here. Missouri rolls!

(44) Texas over Michigan

I don't even need to get into all of the Michigan drama. The program has been burned to the ground at this point. I'll be shocked if Bryce Underwood doesn't transfer before the game.

(45) Utah over Nebraska

The Utes are significantly better anyway, but with the news that Emmett Johnson is opting out, Nebraska has no chance.

(46) Mississippi over Tulane

Ole Miss won at the same venue in September by 35. Lane Kiffin's coaching isn't worth 35 points.

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