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Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN College Pick'em for Week 14 of the 2024 NCAA college football season. Which upsets have the best chance of happening?
It all comes down to this! "keepinglittlehumansalive" led the group with 48 points this week. "EAGLESYANKEES77" was right behind at 47 points. "It's All About Da U!" and "dlobo4" each had 46 points. Nine more entries hit 40 points or more. It's tight at the top. "mr_richard" still leads with 503 points. "lbockenek" gained one point on Richard and is now six points back.
"big Papa10" currently sits in the last prize position, but the big week from "keepinglittlehumansalive" has them within two points. "50Centi" rounds out the top five just one point back at 490 points. Four more entries are all within eight points of prize positions. The 10th-place entries are 27 points back of third place, so this race is down to nine entries. 541 points won the group last year. It's looking like it will be around that again.
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College Football Pick'em Overview
This article will be about confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. If you also want to play the spread version, you can join that group here.
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you will know all of my picks each week.
(1) USC over Notre Dame
Just because there's not enough chaos...can you imagine trying to rationalize a two-loss Notre Dame team in the playoff with the schedule they played? It could happen. This whole situation is ridiculous. Instead of complaining about the ruination of college football, I'm embracing the chaos this season has brought.
The avenue for this scenario is not easy. We can argue that USC hasn't played a complete game since August. However, if we argue that, it implies that USC has the potential to be a complete team. Notre Dame's best games and most complete wins are against the service academies and Texas A&M. USC might be better than all of them.
(2) Texas A&M over Texas
November 30, 1916. The first Bevo is introduced at halftime of the annual Texas-Texas A&M football game. He came from the border and, as you can see, he was a rather skinny thing. UT students did not take a liking to their new mascot at first. He ended up being barbecued. pic.twitter.com/aUQN6iZBW5
— Traces of Texas (@TracesofTexas) January 16, 2021
The greatest prank in the history of college football occurred thanks to this rivalry. Stealing live mascots until after the big game used to be a thing back in the early days of college football. One of the first recorded times was when Aggie cadets kidnapped Bevo after the 1917 game and branded the 13-0 score into his hide.
Legend has it that the Aggies succeeded in stealing five of the seven live mascots from the SWC in 1963. Some of it was proven. Some are just legends.
Corps unit B-2 had already (allegedly) stolen Sammy the Owl from Rice, Texas Tech's quarter horse (who was found with "AMC" shaved in her side outside of Lubbock), SMU's mustang Peruno (the Aggies took a photo pretending to brand the horse), and TCUs horned frogs.
In mid-November 1963 before the Texas game, some Aggies found out where Bevo was kept. They rented a trailer, loaded up Bevo in the middle of the night, and brought him back to College Station. The Longhorns got the Texas Rangers involved to help find their mascot.
Bevo was found on a ranch outside of Bryan, Texas, and rescued by the Silver Spurs with a horde of Aggies laughing and cheering at the sight. Revenge is a dish best served cold. The Longhorns returned the favor in 1993 when they kidnapped A&M's collie "Reveille" right out of the handler's backyard. They are still the only school to successfully steal Reveille.
This is the rivalry that A&M left behind when they joined the SEC...and A&M never properly got justice for Texas stealing the highest-ranking cadet at the school. Jeopardizing Texas's playoff hopes would be even better than stealing Bevo.
For the record, Bevo's location is now a heavily guarded secret so he doesn't wind up kidnapped again. Most of the Silver Spurs don't even know where Bevo lives during the week.
(3) South Carolina over Clemson
I've said a couple of times over the last three weeks that South Carolina is the best three-loss team. I'm backing that up. A win over Clemson combined with the rest of the schedule could allow the Gamecocks in the playoff if the committee goes SEC-heavy.
(4) Marshall over James Madison
Marshall has beaten Old Dominion, Appalachian State, and Coastal Carolina. James Madison can't claim that this year. Once again, most (88% of the public) are sleeping on Marshall.
(5) Kansas over Baylor
Kansas chose a really weird time to be good at football this year pic.twitter.com/R0xJE8SoOH
— Old Row Sports (@OldRowSports) November 23, 2024
I really like Baylor, but Kansas didn't come this far only to be shut out of a bowl anyway. This is a team on a mission. Just ask Iowa State, Colorado, and BYU.
(6) Appalachian State over Georgia Southern
I might move this one up. The public is overwhelmingly (91%) on the Eagles. App State beat James Madison last week! I'll trust the Mountaineers, even on the road,
(7) Iowa State over Kansas State
This rivalry has been played every year since 1917 (107th consecutive meetings)
Kansas State has never held a series lead in the Farmageddon vs. Iowa State, despite winning 25 out of the last 33 games.
Iowa State leads 53-50-4
SATURDAY 11/30: TBD pic.twitter.com/U35pkIG6up
— CFB Home (@CFBHome) November 24, 2024
Farmageddon was played in a blizzard in Manhattan last year. Abu Sama III became a cult hero. It feels like so long ago. All this game has going for it this year is Iowa State's first ever 10-win season and a possible trip to Jerry World.
Farmageddon week pic.twitter.com/QQzEdmV2cV
— Ankur Amin (@cyclonehindu) November 25, 2024
(8) Louisville over Kentucky
How did Louisville lose to Stanford? How did Kentucky beat Ole Miss? These two teams have had quite an impact on the playoff picture. Now it's settled in the Bourbon Bowl (it's not the Commonwealth Cup anymore. That's so 1900s).
(9) Jacksonville State over Western Kentucky
Two words: Tre freaking Stewart!
I don’t know much about Jacksonville State, but I do know Tre Stewart could play almost anywhere in the country. This guy is legit. pic.twitter.com/3HwtJvCF6k
— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) October 31, 2024
(10) Texas Tech over West Virginia
I may end up moving this down. West Virginia hasn't been very good on the road (or at home for that matter), but Tech was supposed to be closer to 9-2 than 7-4. This team has lost games that it shouldn't have.
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