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Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN College Pick'em for Week 13 of the 2024 NCAA college football season. Which upsets have the best chance of happening?
We are down to the last two weeks of ESPN college pick 'em and things got a little tighter at the top. "dlobo4" led the group with 49 points last week and I was in second with 43 points. My point stealing worked mostly, but my faith in Georgia State ruined what could have been an excellent week. Only two other entries hit 40 points this week.
The top three didn't change much. "mr_richard" extended his lead over "lbockenek" to seven points. "IUBB1!" is 11 points out of first, but only one point ahead of "50Centi" and "big papi10." "all the way up Big tee#2" in two points back of them in sixth. The big week from "dlobo4" vaults them into a tie for seventh with "keepinglittlehumansalive." "EAGLESYANKEES77" sits in ninth with 442 points. "Strawberry Runtz" rounds out the top 10 with 430 points.
10th place is 32 points out of first, which is a pretty big gap with only two weeks remaining. Four more entries are within 42 points of first, but 31 points of a prize. That ground can be made up if you're willing to buck the public. I did it last week with some success. Let's keep it going!
College Football Pick'em Overview
This article will be about confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. If you also want to play the spread version, you can join that group here.
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you will know all of my picks each week.
(1) Indiana over Ohio State
The last time #Indiana beat #OhioState was 36 years ago in 1988 ?
Since then, The Buckeyes are 30-0-1 in the series..
Indiana RB Anthony Thompson
32 rushes
190 YARDS
4 TD#CollegeFootball pic.twitter.com/LdRqhdJ6iR— College Football Fan (@CFB_Fan_) November 21, 2024
This is more wishful thinking than anything else. The public is higher on Indiana (18%) than I expected, but that also tells me something that I already believe: this will be a close game. Strange things happen in close games.
If you want me to explain this in the simplest terms, Indiana came out and destroyed Nebraska. Beat them repeatedly up and down the field. Ohio State had to escape against Nebraska. That is a lazy and generic take, but it's the easiest way possible to explain the avenue for this.
Ohio State has a habit of getting up for games like this, especially at home. Indiana has a terrible schedule, and letting Michigan climb back in was not a good look. They have had time to reflect on that and time to fully prepare for Ohio State.
The Hoosiers are similarly built to Ohio State. They have a strong backup quarterback along with an experienced starter. They have s stable of running backs with little discernable drop-off between the top three on the depth chart. Ohio State has a bit of an advantage at receiver, but not as much as some would have you believe.
You can complain about Indiana's schedule all you want and I agree -- they are 10th in my rankings for that reason -- but Ohio State has essentially the same schedule if you take out the Oregon game. Ohio State is expected to win this because Indiana hasn't beaten them in 36 years.
The talent gap (on paper) is immense. In reality, Curt Cignetti gets more from his three-star players than most coaches get from their five-star recruits. So yeah, I'm taking Indiana. I've seen the movie Hoosiers. I believe! Just keep an eye on those crooked officials who seem to have an agenda this year.
(2) Colorado over Kansas
This isn't even a trap game anymore. Everyone knows Kansas is coming. They need to win their last two games to make a bowl and they want to prove that Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal didn't return for nothing. They should have handled this in September, but so it goes.
The thing is...Colorado also needs this. They want Shedeur Sanders to go out in the playoffs. In order for that to happen, Colorado needs to win out. We are at an impasse. Both teams are playing well right now. This is going to be a close game. A close game favors Colorado with all of the struggles that Kansas has had in nail-biters this year.
(3) Marshall over Old Dominion
Marshall being the better team doesn't mean much. The Monarchs are a good team and they're at home. I've had a hard time getting a read on Old Dominion this year. Vegas is fairly confident (-145) in the Monarchs and Marshall has trouble running the ball. There are just enough red flags here to get me to think twice about this pick.
I changed my three-point pick last week and may end up doing the same this week since the public is 77% on Marshall. I don't want to get too carried away with point stealing, but this feels like another good spot if I see the avenue for an ODU win.
(4) Western Kentucky over Liberty
Louisiana Tech held the Hilltoppers to just seven points last week. The Liberty defense might be good enough to do that as well. Vegas has this as basically a toss-up, but the public is heavy on Liberty (71%). The line also opened with the Hilltoppers favored. I'm trying to steal points here. This is not the same Liberty team that we saw in 2023.
(5) Arizona State over BYU
This game is in Tempe and BYU has had issues stopping the run in the last two games. Arizona State has everything in front of them and Cam Skattebo behind them (well, the offensive line anyway). The Sun Devils feel primed to take this and it's a toss-up on pick em (53% ASU; 47% BYU).
(6) UCLA over USC
USC was gifted the game last week. Hopefully, it doesn't happen against the cross-town rivals this week. USC didn't look markedly better with Jayden Maiava last week. I'm really bucking the trend here with a majority of the public on USC (87%).
(7) Jacksonville State over Sam Houston
I like the way the Bearkats have played. Both of these teams came into FBS last year. The Gamecocks are quite a bit ahead as far as production and program. I think it stays close, but Tre Stewart is a beast!
I don’t know much about Jacksonville State, but I do know Tre Stewart could play almost anywhere in the country. This guy is legit. pic.twitter.com/3HwtJvCF6k
— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) October 31, 2024
(8) Colorado State over Fresno State
Fresno has managed to play teams close, but the Rams are winning handily. This is another spot where I don't get the Fresno love. Vegas has soured on the Rams after they lost Tory Horton, but this is still a good team. This is more bucking Vegas than the public. 66% of people are with me.
(9) Texas A&M over Auburn
Auburn is starting to remind me of Florida. If they replaced Payton Thorne, they would be Florida. That also means this is a situation where they could catch A&M by surprise (looking ahead to Texas) and beat the Aggies. That's what Vegas thinks. Auburn is +110 to win. If I trusted Thorne at all I would take Auburn with 92% of the public on the Aggies.
(10) Iowa State over Utah
Colorado just blew the doors off of Utah. Iowa State's offense isn't as potent, but the offense is good and the defense is better. The Cyclones still have an outside shot at the playoff.
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