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Buy or Sell - Undervalued and Overvalued Players for Week 7


We are just over a month into the fantasy baseball season and it is a prime time to buy in on players whose production could be legit/should be better or hop off a heater before the floors caves in. As we all should know, baseball is a game of ebbs and flows. When there is too much good, expect some bad, and vice-versa.

The phrase Buy or Sell is a bit looser than it typically would be mid-season or closer to fantasy playoff time. The players covered, for the most part, are guys I am either wary of or tentatively interested in. We are walking a fine line here after the first month. Various factors play into good/bad season starts such as tough schedules with rough ballpark (or vice-versa), nagging injuries, poor team performance, and even the weather.

Do not be afraid to send out low-ball "feeler" offers to your league-mates this time of year for underperforming guys. You never know what they will take. Of course, the expectation should be that the offer is declined, but at least a potential conversation could begin. Have secondary players you are willing to throw in the deal, but also know your limits. If your mate if asking for a "stud" in return, make sure you try and upgrade elsewhere to mitigate the hit on your end. Good trades win you leagues, do not forget that. You always want to be as ahead of the curve as possible, and I am here to help with that. Let's take a look at what we've seen thus far.

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Undervalued Players - Week 7

These players could be worth trying to add or acquire as long as you're not paying for preseason value. Ideally, they are just lying around on your wire and you can add them straight up or for a few extra FAAB dollars.

 

Rafael Devers - (3B, BOS)

79% owned

Rafi is so good but for some reason, his counting stats have been lacking this season. His batting average is up from last year and he is walking more and striking out less. The progress has been wonderful for the former top Red Sox' prospect who had some trouble making quality contact last season. Devers is still just 22 and has plenty of room to grow. He made significant strides in his conditioning over the offseason which may be leading to his current performance.

Although he is batting in the back half of the order, Devers has been productive and should be more-so as the year goes on. The Boston lineup is stacked with talent and Devers has more than enough juice in his bat to drive in much more than the 20 batters he has thus far. He should be owned in all leagues and is worth trading for even with his value jumping this past week.

 

Nomar Mazara - (OF, TEX)

66% owned

Nomar Mazara is underperforming like crazy. There is a massive discrepancy between his expected batting and slugging averages. He has cut his strikeouts down and managed to accrue a decent chunk of counting stats with a poor average. Mazara's BABIP is much lower than his career average while his hitting tendencies haven't changed too drastically (a few more fly balls than ground balls this year). He is hitting the ball hard more often than ever and has no competition for playing time.

Mazara is a prime buy candidate who could end the year as a .275 hitter with 30 home runs and nearly 100 RBI. His walk rate makes me uneasy for OBP leagues but those in OPS/AVG formats should be running to make offers for this Rangers' outfielder.

 

Lucas Giolito (SP, CWS)

27% owned

This former top pitching prospect may finally be coming into his own. Giolito's ERA is still above four but his strikeout rate is ELITE at nearly 30 percent. His xFIP and SIERA are both below four (good signs) and he has been decent against some solid competition like the Yankees and Red Sox. The outing that has tanked his numbers a bit was an early season outing against a red-hot Seattle team which could be chalked up as flukey.

Giolito has elite "stuff" and if he is putting it all together with improved velocity, you want to be along for the ride in most formats. Giolito's fastball was terrible last season but rates out as just about average now. His secondaries have been reliable and although his curveball has not been too effective yet, when it is, watch out. Giolito is worth the stream against Toronto today if he's still available just as a taste test. If he goes out and proves himself, keep him around for that next start. If not, no skin off your bones, just drop him and watch him for a bit (in shallower leagues).

 

Overvalued Players - Week 7

Overvalued does not always mean SELL. Players here are just showing enough red flags that warrant the overvalued tag.

 

Derek Dietrich - (1B/2B/OF, CIN )

37% owned

Dietrich has been on fire for the past two weeks, and I do not expect that to carry on throughout this season. Why? Mostly because he's Derek Dietrich and this is just a case of luck. No one in baseball has been luckier than Derek Dietrich. One-third of his fly balls have turned into home runs. His fly ball rate is up and so are his pull/hard-hit rates. He is selling out for power and it has worked out so far.

Going from Marlins Park to Great American Ballpark will benefit every hitter ever. GAB is a bandbox but even it cannot sustain DD's power outburst. Good news for owners is that he is walking more and striking out less. The sub-.200 BABIP will go up but should be lower than his career average due to this change in approach. If some schmuck in your league needs middle infield depth, trade Dietrich for any possible positive return.

 

David Peralta - (OF, ARI)

87% owned

Peralta is overperforming and absolutely a sell candidate. All of his expected stats on BaseballSavant point towards regression. His BABIP is nearly .400 while he is striking out more than ever and walking less than he has the past two years. The lineup in Arizona is not good and his counting stats should hit a rough patch in the near future.

Thus far, with 23 runs, 26 RBI and six home runs, Peralta should be decently attractive enough to include in a trade. Try to package him for maybe someone like Goldschmidt who has been underperforming or someone like Altuve who should not be on the injured list too long.

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