Tight End Fantasy Football Breakouts from Last Year - 2025 Outlooks

March 13, 2025

Rob's tight end fantasy football breakouts from last year, and their 2025 fantasy outlooks. He believes these are tight ends draft value picks for 2025.

Once the NFL season is over, it's always interesting -- and helpful -- to look back at the season that was and see what we can learn from it. In this entry, we'll review the tight-end position for 2024 and identify three breakout tight ends. First, we must define what a breakout is. For this series, there will be two criteria a player can meet to qualify for breakout status. The first is a player who solidly outplays their ADP and preseason expectations. This is that preseason running back who was ranked at RB46 but finished as RB15. The second is a player who significantly increases their stat line in a way they hadn't previously done. This is a player who averaged 1,000 yards rushing for two seasons and then breaks out for 1,600.

This is the final entry in this breakout series. There were four previous entries -- two for the running back and two for the wide receiver position. These entries can be found below:

• Breakout Running Backs - Part I
• Breakout Running Backs - Part II
• Breakout Wide Receivers - Part I
• Breakout Wide Receivers - Part II

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Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals

McBride started to break out in 2023. He didn't get to start immediately, but he blew the doors off once he did. McBride didn't play over 60 percent until Week 8. From Weeks 1-7 in 2023, he had just 170 receiving yards. Then, in Weeks 8-18 in 2023, he had 655 yards. He averaged 65.5 yards per game during that stretch. This was the start of something special, but it wasn't until this past season that McBride had his true breakout season.

While many suspected that rookie phenom Marvin Harrison Jr. might steal McBride's thunder, this never happened. McBride was Kyler Murray's No. 1 target throughout the season and was the driving force behind Arizona's passing game.

McBride delivered on the amount of responsibility it put on his plate. He wasn't just a volume receiver and one of the most efficient receiving tight ends. Forty-four tight ends had 30 targets last season. This is where McBride ranked in several advanced, efficient metrics:

• First in Air Yard Share (24.9 percent)
• First in Target Share (26.5 percent)
• Fourth in Target Rate (27.0 percent)
• Ninth in Catch Rate (80.4 percent)
• First in Team Market-Share of Yards (30.8 percent)
• Third in Yards Per Route Run (2.25)
• First in First-Read Target Share (33.7 percent)
• 11th in Missed Tackles Forced Per Reception (14.0 percent)
• Third in First Downs Per Route Run (12.4 percent)
• Third in Half-PPR PPG (11.8)
• First in Expected Half-PPR PPG (15.6)

McBride became the most heavily targeted tight end this past season. His stats show an elite tight end who has become arguably the best tight end in the NFL. Before the 2024 season, a McBride breakout was expected and hypothesized by many, but it was never known. When the dust settled from the 2024 NFL season, McBride made good on all those predictions.

Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins

From 2017 to 2023, Smith averaged 346 yards per season. His per-game average during that time, if extrapolated over 17 games, would have finished with 385 yards.

Over his first seven seasons, he has exactly one season with over 450 yards. Before the 2024 season, he never had a year where he had more than 70 targets or 50 catches. Smith's 2024 season was a breakout in the truest sense. For the first four weeks of the 2024 season, it looked like more of the same from Smith.

He averaged only 20 yards per game, putting him on pace for 332 yards for the year. From Weeks 5-18, he increased his yards per game to 62 and was on pace for 1,054 yards. During this time, Smith was one of the league's most targeted and effective tight ends. From Weeks 5-18, 50 tight ends had 20 targets. This is where he ranked in several stats and advanced metrics:

• 10th in Air Yard Share (18.2 percent)
• Fifth in Targets Per Game (7.4)
• Sixth in Target Share (20.8 percent)
• Fourth in Target Rate (29.0 percent)
• Ninth in Catch Rate (82.3 percent)
• Fourth in Yards Per Game (62.0)
• Second in Yards Per Route Run (2.41)
• Eighth in Yards After the Catch Per Reception (6.04)
• Fourth in First-Read Target Share (24.3 percent)
• First in First-Downs Per Route Run (15.5 percent)
• Fifth in Half-PPR PPG (12.8)
• Fifth in Expected Half-PPR PPG (13.0)

Smith had the best season of his career. Miami dealt with issues and injuries along its offensive line, and this caused the team to refocus on how it operated its offense. Tua Tagovailoa's intended air yards per attempt last year was 7.7; the year before, it was 9.5. This year, that plummeted to 5.7. That shift impacted where Miami's primary targets went. De'Von Achane and Smith became more heavily involved, whereas Jaylen Waddle saw his volume decrease.

Jonnu Smith and De'Von Achane combined for 58 designed targets in 2024.

If you remove all plays to designed reads, the Dolphins' TPRRs go from:

Waddle: 19% -> 22%
Hill: 25% -> 29%
Achane: 24% -> 19%
Smith: 28% -> 28% https://t.co/gS07JQUEz1

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) February 3, 2025

Smith was drafted as the TE21 but finished as the TE4 with a 10.3 half-PPR PPG. It'll be interesting to see what happens in 2025. In every sense of the word, Smith's production last season was an outlier compared to his entire career. If Miami can fix the offensive line and head coach Mike McDaniel can refocus his passing attack with down-the-field targets, will Smith revert to who he's always been?

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers

Kraft had 355 yards in 2023 as a rookie. Luke Musgrave began as the starter, but he suffered an injury, and Kraft eventually became the starter late in the season. Musgrave was hurt early in 2024 and missed 10 games this past season. This put Kraft in a position where he could be Green Bay's primary starter at tight end. He played 85 percent of the snaps this past season.

He was drafted as the TE37. He finished as the TE9 with an 8.3 half-PPR PPG average. Kraft wasn't as heavily involved as his advanced metrics say he should have been. There were 44 tight ends with at least 30 targets last year. Kraft finished with a 13.6 percent target share. This ranked 20th. His 3.8 target-per-game average ranked 25th, and his 17 percent targets per route run rate ranked 31st.

Despite this limited utilization, he finished 12th in yards per game (41.6). Given his effectiveness, there's a powerful argument that he should have been more involved. Among those 44 tight ends, Kraft ranked:

• Seventh in Yards Per Route Run (1.90)
• Second in Yards Per Target (10.9)
• Second in Yards Per Reception (14.1)
• First in Yards After the Catch Per Reception (9.4)
• Second in Missed Tackles Forced Per Reception (28.0 percent)

Kraft will need to get more involved to take his game to another level, and there's reason to believe that could happen in 2025. Christian Watson is slated to miss most of the season with a significant knee injury. Romeo Doubs is now three years into his career and has been the same player all three years. Jayden Reed's development stagnated last season. Dontayvion Wicks took a sizable step back after a promising rookie season. Kraft was the only pass-catcher for the Packers who took a positive step in 2024.

More Work For Tucker Kraft In 2025?

Packers HC Matt LaFleur wants to get TE Tucker Kraft even more involved in the offense in 2025. He answered, "100%" when asked if Kraft can make a Travis Kelce or George Kittle-type of impact. pic.twitter.com/GxNqEJHnhd

— Draft Sharks (@DraftSharks) January 15, 2025

Kraft showed plenty of explosiveness and gave his coaches every reason to make him a more significant part of the offense in 2025. The Packers are desperate for impactful pass-catchers, and the receivers have yet to provide that. Kraft displayed that kind of potential. Now, we must wait and see if the coaches make it a reality in 2025.

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