Breakout Wide Receivers - Fantasy Football Outlooks for Drake London, Brian Thomas, more

It's always fun to look back at the NFL regular season and find which players excelled. Who took their games to new heights? This series, which we started with two entries on running backs, will move forward looking at the wide receiver position. We'll identify six receivers across two articles who broke out this season.

First, we must define what a breakout is. For this series, there will be two criteria a player can meet to qualify for breakout status. The first is a player who solidly outplays their ADP and preseason expectations. This is that preseason wide receiver who was ranked at WR46 but finished as WR15. The second is a player who significantly increases their stat line in a way they hadn't previously done. This is a player who averaged 750 yards receiving for two seasons and then breaks out for 1,300. Maybe that was even the expectation, but it's still a breakout.

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Drake London, Atlanta Falcons

London is a player who might challenge our notions of what a breakout player is. On the one hand, he just had his best statistical season by far and finished with the best half-PPR PPG average ranking of his career. On the other hand, he was drafted as the WR11 and finished as the WR22 (Weeks 1-17). So, did he break out? Can you "break out" and disappoint fantasy managers simultaneously?

In our running back edition, Bijan Robinson was listed as a breakout. Statistically, he had the best season of his career. He dramatically increased his rushing yards and scrimmage yards. Regarding fantasy football, Robinson may not have exceeded his preseason ADP, but at the very least, he met the lofty expectations that may have been bestowed upon him. London did not. London once again left fantasy managers wanting more.

Still, however, it's hard to ignore the sizable leap he made regarding his counting stats. London played all 17 games in 2024. Using his per-game stats from his first two seasons, London averaged 117 targets, 73 receptions, 912 yards, and three touchdowns over 17 games. London had 158 targets, 100 receptions, 1,271 yards, and nine touchdowns this year.

There's no denying that, from a statistical perspective, London had never produced a season like he had in 2024. However, it wasn't just counting stats that saw London take a step forward.

The table above shows that London improved in some of the most essential predictive advanced stats from 2023 to 2024. He set many career highs in target rate, air yards share, yards per route run, YAC/Reception, and first downs per route run.

Undoubtedly, better quarterback play certainly played a significant role in that. After all, a quarterback's efficiency, or lack thereof, will have a trickle-down effect on his pass-catchers.

Drake London's rate of inaccurate targets to start his career...

2022: 18.8%
2023: 13.6%
2024: 8.9%

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) February 1, 2025

London was one of only four receivers to finish in the top 10 of air yards per route run and targets per route run. Despite London underperforming against his ADP, his significant increase in his counting and advanced statistics make him an apparent breakout candidate.

The difference between his WR21 finish and WR15 was less than a point per game, so it seems silly to squabble over that. London finished fourth this season in receiving yards after not having more than 925 yards in either of his first two seasons. The full breakout status is confirmed.

Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

Can a rookie break out? Yes, but we can use only a set of criteria for them. They've (obviously) never played in the NFL before, so they can't significantly increase their stats from last season. There is no "last season" for them.

Therefore, the only way a rookie can break out is to outplay their preseason expectations and ADP significantly. Thomas was drafted as the WR46. Fantasy managers barely drafted him as a WR4 this past offseason. What did Thomas do?

He finished as the WR11 with a 14.17 half-PPR PPG, but that doesn't tell the complete story. As we've come to expect from rookie receivers, they get better as the season rolls along. Think of Rashee Rice in his rookie season or Amon-Ra St. Brown. Like them, Thomas also experienced a midseason transformation.

In Weeks 1-10, primarily with Trevor Lawrence under center, Jacksonville averaged 30.5 attempts, 214 yards, and 1.1 touchdowns per game. From Weeks 11-18, the Jaguars averaged 34.4, 225 yards, and 1.0 touchdowns per game.

For the most part, Thomas was working a similar performance from his quarterback in both data points. The most significant difference is that Lawrence's average target depth was 9.9, and Mac Jones was 7.7. That could help explain some of the different numbers we see below.

Jones's preference for shorter targets compared to Lawrence could explain the dip we see in Thomas's yards per target, yards per catch, and average target depth averages. None of the dips are overly significant.

All three almost perfectly coincide with the difference between Lawrence's and Jones's target depth, which was two yards. Thomas’s yards per target average decreased by 1.9. His yards per catch went down by 2.9, and his average target depth went down by 1.8.

His targets, receptions, and yards per game show significant upgrades. Over 17 games, in Weeks 1-10, Thomas was on pace for 95 targets, 63 receptions, and 1,032 yards. From Weeks 11-18, his 17-game pace increased to 187 targets, 121 receptions, and 1,639 yards.

His target share increased from 18.0 percent to 30.7 percent. Romeo Doubs had an 18.7 percent target share in 2024. A.J. Brown had a 31.1 percent target share, which ranked second, just for some perspective on how vastly different those numbers are.

Both of his yard-per-route-run averages are excellent. 2.35 would have ranked 17th, but 2.78 would rank fourth. His 11.5 half-PPR PPG is similar to that of Courtland Sutton (11.3), but his 18.0 half-PPR PPG would have ranked second to only Ja'Marr Chase's 19.9 and 1.8 half-PPR PPG better than Justin Jefferson. Even the most optimistic Thomas stan could not have expected what he did in the second half of last season.

Thomas transformed into a top-10 receiver before our eyes while working with a backup quarterback and a head coach who would eventually be fired. He went from an exciting and athletic prospect to a top-10 receiver in six months. That's a full-blown breakout. The best part is that Thomas's ceiling is even higher.

2024 yards per route ...

Brian Thomas: 2.45

All other Jaguars WRs: 1.06

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) February 4, 2025

Jacksonville hired Liam Coen, Tampa Bay's former offensive coordinator, as HC. He helped orchestrate a Buccaneers offense that finished fourth in total points and third in total yards. Their passing attack ranked 10th in attempts, third in yards, and second in touchdowns. Baker Mayfield had a career season, throwing 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns.

There should be plenty of optimism and excitement about what Coen can do with Lawrence and Thomas. Thomas should be considered one of the top-10 receivers next season. He has the potential and the upside to finish in the top five.

Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns

In Jeudy's first four seasons in the NFL, he had never compiled more than 972 yards. From Weeks 7-18 this year, he had 981 yards. If that isn't a breakout, I'm not entirely sure what is. He was drafted as the WR57 this past offseason but finished tied at WR27 with an 11.66 half-PPR PPG. That doesn't even tell the whole picture of Jeudy's breakout season.

In Weeks 1-7, Jeudy had to catch passes from Deshaun Watson. For most of Weeks 8-18, Jeudy caught passes from Jameis Winston. Consider that in Weeks 1-7, the Browns averaged 187 yards per game and 0.85 touchdowns. Cleveland's quarterbacks during this time averaged just 5.2 yards per attempt.

In Weeks 8-18, they averaged 257 yards per game and 1.3 touchdowns. The yard-per-attempt average increased to 6.3. Winston started and finished seven of those games. His per-game averages were 291 yards per game, 1.7 touchdowns, and 7.2 yards per attempt.

There were 90 receivers to finish with at least 50 targets in 2024. His 96.3 yard-per-game average in his final 10 games of the season would have ranked second among all receivers, behind only Ja'Marr Chase. The 38.0 yard-per-game average he had with Watson would have ranked 59th, between DeAndre Hopkins and Noah Brown. His target share with Watson (15.9 percent) would have ranked 50th, but his 24.9 percent target share with Winston was 12th.

Jeudy had a 2.36 yard-per-route-run average with Winston. That would have ranked 16th, tied with CeeDee Lamb. Compare that to his 1.04 yard-per-route-run average with Watson, which ranked 81st, behind that of David Moore, Demarcus Robinson, and Sterling Shepard.

He averaged 15.1 half-PPR PPG with Winston, which would have been WR6 for the season, right behind Puka Nacua's 15.2 PPG average. With Watson, he averaged just 6.4. This was tied with Calvin Austin III, Diontae Johnson, and Tre Tucker. Jeudy was on a 17-game pace of just 646 yards with Watson, but with Winston, his on-pace mark increased to 1,637.

Winston is far from a perfect quarterback, but Jeudy had caught passes from Drew Lock, Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien, Teddy Bridgewater, Russell Wilson, and Jarrett Stidham. That's a rough lot of quarterbacks, and while we can say Jeudy should've, maybe even could've played better, it's hard to be successful with such questionable quarterbacks.

Winston certainly has his faults, but he also has the highest upside as a passer. That brought out the best that we've ever seen from Jeudy.

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