X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Breakout Wide Receivers - Fantasy Football Outlooks for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jameson Williams, more

Jameson Williams - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Rob's biggest fantasy football breakout wide receivers. His 2025 fantasy football outlooks for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jameson Williams, Ladd McConkey.

This series continues to roll on with Part 2 of our breakout receivers. First, we must define what a breakout is. For this series, there will be two criteria a player can meet to qualify for breakout status. The first is a player who solidly outplays their ADP and preseason expectations. This is that preseason wide receiver who was ranked at WR46 but finished as WR15. The second is a player who significantly increases their stat line in a way they hadn't previously done. This is a player who averaged 750 yards receiving for two seasons and then breaks out for 1,300. Maybe that was even the expectation, but it's still a breakout.

Be sure to check out the previous entries of this series:

  • Breakout Running Backs - Part I
  • Breakout Running Backs - Part II
  • Breakout Wide Receivers - Part I

There is one final entry in this series where we'll identify some of the breakout tight ends from 2024, so be sure to look for that article soon. Sign up for our premium membership to take your fantasy game to a new level. This subscription includes additional tools, articles, and engagement from our fantastic team. Please use "BOOM" at checkout to receive a 10 percent discount.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

JSN's breakout season looked far from certain early in the season. He was trending closer to "bust" status through the season's first seven weeks than a breakout.

Despite his first-round pedigree and exceptional collegiate production, fantasy managers weren't sold. He was drafted as the WR41. Considering he was a first-round pick, entering his second season, and coming off a season where he saw over 90 targets, this low ranking is somewhat shocking in hindsight.

And, of course, this preseason ADP looks even more egregious with hindsight. But again, through the first seven weeks, it looked like a great call.

Statistic 2023 Weeks 1-7 Weeks 8-18
Targets (TPG) 93 (5.5) 55 (7.9) 82 (8.2)
Receptions (RPG) 63 (3.7) 37 (5.3) 63 (6.3)
Yards (YPG) 628 (36.9) 319 (45.6) 811 (81.1)
Catch Rate 67.7 percent 67.3 percent 76.8 percent
Yards Per Target 6.7 5.9 10.3
Yards Per Catch 9.9 8.6 12.9
Target Share 16.2 percent 19.3 percent 25.2 percent
Target Rate 21 percent 20 percent 25 percent
Yards Per Route Run 1.39 1.20 2.61
YAC/Rec 5.9 4.7 5.5
Average Depth of Target 6.4 8.3 9.8
1st Down Per Route Run 6.4 percent 6.4 percent 12.2 percent
Half-PPR PPG 7.0 8.4 14.5

His targets per game were quite a bit higher in the first seven weeks of the 2024 season compared to 2023, but there were a lot of similarities as well. His yards per game is within 10 yards. His catch rate is almost identical. His first downs per route run were identical.

His yards per target, yards per catch, and yards per route run were higher in 2023 than in the first seven weeks of the season. His 8.4 half-PPR PPG was WR47 in Weeks 1-7, worse than his WR41 preseason ADP.

Everything changed after that. DK Metcalf missed Weeks 8 and 9 with a sprained MCL. He returned in Week 11 after the bye week, but by then, JSN had claimed the top spot in Seattle's pecking order and didn't give it back, either.

From that point, JSN performed and played like a completely different receiver. His per-game averages in Weeks 8-18, if extrapolated over 17 games, would result in 139 targets, 107 receptions, and 1,379 yards. Those numbers would put him squarely in the top-10 discussion.

It took a year and a half for JSN to break out, but he didn't look back once he did. JSN will now have another offensive coordinator in 2025. It'll be his third in three years, but there's reason to believe Klint Kubiak will be the best JSN has had.

Tyler Lockett will also likely be gone in 2025, eliminating some target competition from 2024. Fantasy managers should be optimistic that JSN will continue his breakout in 2025 and maybe take his game to another level, as Matt Harmon predicted above.

 

Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions

Williams missed most of his rookie season due to a knee injury he suffered late in his final collegiate season. In his second season, Williams was suspended for a gambling infraction.

Once he returned, he was not a full-time player, never logging a 70 percent snap share in a single game. The Lions' offseason moves last year signaled they were ready to make Williams a featured player in their offense.

He finished with a 72 percent snap share despite missing two complete games. He played over 70 percent of the snaps in 13 of his 15 games. Even though he only played 15 games, Williams still managed to break 1,000 yards and became one of just 21 receivers last season to do so. With Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit had plenty of offensive weapons to utilize, meaning Williams was rarely afforded many targets.

He finished 40th among receivers in targets (91). That was behind Elijah Moore, Rome Odunze, Khalil Shakir, and Jauan Jennings. Still, Williams managed to finish 21st in yards. Williams averaged six targets per game and finished with a 17.6 percent target share and a 20 percent target rate.

All three numbers significantly increased from Year 2 but are relatively modest among other receivers. So, how, then, could he finish with over 1,000 yards? Let's take a look at some of his efficiency metrics among 85 receivers with at least 50 targets:

  • 23rd in Yards Per Route Run (2.26)
  • Sixth in Yards Per Target (11.1)
  • Fourth in Yards Per Reception (17.2)
  • Fifth in YAC/Reception (7.4)

Despite these numbers, Williams was 34th in average depth of target (11.9). Detroit did a great job of running screen plays to the WR, getting the ball into his hands early. This helped keep his catch rate relatively high (63.7 percent) despite numbers that would seem to indicate he was largely a downfield weapon.

He most certainly was, but Detroit did an excellent job of utilizing him in different ways and Williams did a fantastic job of making the most of the opportunities he did get.

Ever since Brad Holmes took over in Detroit, it seems as though everything he touches and does turns into gold. While they needed to wait two years for Jamo to become the player they expected him to be when they drafted him with the No. 12 overall pick, they displayed confidence in him, and he delivered.

In 2024, Williams was the player everyone thought he'd be. The arrow is pointing up. He looks like one of the NFL's most exciting, game-breaking receivers.

 

Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers

McConkey was drafted as the WR44 this past offseason. He was a popular sleeper pick because of the lack of target competition in Los Angeles.

Many thought that McConkey could lead the Chargers in targets. While most either thought that or believed in the possibility, no one thought he'd be as productive as he was. It took a few weeks for the breakout to happen, but once it did, McConkey stormed onto the scene.

Stat (McConkey) Weeks 1-6 Weeks 7-18
Targets (TPG) 32 (6.4) 80 (7.3)
Receptions (RPG) 19 (3.8) 63 (5.7)
Yards (YPG) 219 (43.8) 936 (85.1)
Catch Rate 59.4 percent 78.8 percent
Yards Per Target 7.0 11.8
Yards Per Catch 11.5 14.9
Target Share 24.4 percent 22.4 percent
Target Rate 28 percent 23 percent
Yards Per Route Run 1.99 2.75
YAC/Rec 5.2 4.8
Average Depth of Target 9.9 10.3
1st Down Per Route Run 10.9 percent 11.8 percent
Half-PPR PPG 8.7 15.1

As you can see from the chart above, while almost all of McConkey’s numbers went up in the second half, his target share and his target rate went down. It’s rare to see such a boost in production as a player gets a smaller piece of the pie. So, how did this work for McConkey?

To explain that, we need to look at Justin Herbert’s splits. In Weeks 1-6, Herbert averaged 25 pass attempts, 163 yards, and 1.2 touchdowns per game. Over 17 games, with those averages, he’d have finished with 425 pass attempts, 2,771 yards, and 20 touchdowns.

From Weeks 7-18, Herbert averaged 31.6 attempts, 255 yards, and 1.4 touchdowns. Those per-game averages would equate to 537 pass attempts, 4,328 yards, and 24 touchdowns. Those are some massive differences! We’re talking over 100 more pass attempts and 1,500 more yards!

The Chargers offense had a 50.8 percent pass rate in neutral game scripts in Weeks 1-6. That increased to 58.3 percent from Weeks 7-18. That increased volume allowed McConkey to earn less of the pie percentage-wise but still have more overall targets. One thing to be cognizant of is that while his target depth between the two splits didn’t change that much (9.9 yards compared to 10.3), his catch rate did.

His catch rate increased from 59.4 percent to 78.8 percent. Herbert’s completion percentage increased from 64.0 percent to 66.5 percent between the two splits, but that doesn’t come close to explaining a 19.4 percent increase in catch rate. His target share (24.4 percent), target rate (28 percent), and yards per route run average (1.99) early in the season foreshadowed an eventual breakout if the Chargers threw the ball more.

When they did that, fantasy managers, even the most optimistic kind, likely couldn’t have predicted what happened next. McConkey’s 2.75 yards per route run average in the second half of the season would rank in the top five, and his 15.1 half-PPR PPG average would’ve put him between Puka Nacua (15.2) and Nico Collins (14.9) at WR6.

From Weeks 7-18, his per-game averages would result in 124 targets, 97 receptions, and 1,447 yards over 17 games. McConkey finished as the WR20 for the season with a 12.4 half-PPR PPG average. Despite a WR44 draft slot, McConkey finished as a top-24 receiver in eight weeks of the season. He was one of the best picks fantasy managers could have made.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Uchenna Nwosu

Seahawks Place Uchenna Nwosu on PUP List
Taylor Decker

Alim McNeill, Taylor Decker Placed on PUP List
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF