RADIO
Rob's biggest fantasy football breakout wide receivers. His 2025 fantasy football outlooks for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jameson Williams, Ladd McConkey.
This series continues to roll on with Part 2 of our breakout receivers. First, we must define what a breakout is. For this series, there will be two criteria a player can meet to qualify for breakout status. The first is a player who solidly outplays their ADP and preseason expectations. This is that preseason wide receiver who was ranked at WR46 but finished as WR15. The second is a player who significantly increases their stat line in a way they hadn't previously done. This is a player who averaged 750 yards receiving for two seasons and then breaks out for 1,300. Maybe that was even the expectation, but it's still a breakout.
Be sure to check out the previous entries of this series:
- Breakout Running Backs - Part I
- Breakout Running Backs - Part II
- Breakout Wide Receivers - Part I
There is one final entry in this series where we'll identify some of the breakout tight ends from 2024, so be sure to look for that article soon. Sign up for our premium membership to take your fantasy game to a new level. This subscription includes additional tools, articles, and engagement from our fantastic team. Please use "BOOM" at checkout to receive a 10 percent discount.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings
- Running back (RB) fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
- Tight end (TE) fantasy football rankings
- Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Kicker (K) fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
JSN's breakout season looked far from certain early in the season. He was trending closer to "bust" status through the season's first seven weeks than a breakout.
Despite his first-round pedigree and exceptional collegiate production, fantasy managers weren't sold. He was drafted as the WR41. Considering he was a first-round pick, entering his second season, and coming off a season where he saw over 90 targets, this low ranking is somewhat shocking in hindsight.
And, of course, this preseason ADP looks even more egregious with hindsight. But again, through the first seven weeks, it looked like a great call.
| Statistic | 2023 | Weeks 1-7 | Weeks 8-18 |
| Targets (TPG) | 93 (5.5) | 55 (7.9) | 82 (8.2) |
| Receptions (RPG) | 63 (3.7) | 37 (5.3) | 63 (6.3) |
| Yards (YPG) | 628 (36.9) | 319 (45.6) | 811 (81.1) |
| Catch Rate | 67.7 percent | 67.3 percent | 76.8 percent |
| Yards Per Target | 6.7 | 5.9 | 10.3 |
| Yards Per Catch | 9.9 | 8.6 | 12.9 |
| Target Share | 16.2 percent | 19.3 percent | 25.2 percent |
| Target Rate | 21 percent | 20 percent | 25 percent |
| Yards Per Route Run | 1.39 | 1.20 | 2.61 |
| YAC/Rec | 5.9 | 4.7 | 5.5 |
| Average Depth of Target | 6.4 | 8.3 | 9.8 |
| 1st Down Per Route Run | 6.4 percent | 6.4 percent | 12.2 percent |
| Half-PPR PPG | 7.0 | 8.4 | 14.5 |
His targets per game were quite a bit higher in the first seven weeks of the 2024 season compared to 2023, but there were a lot of similarities as well. His yards per game is within 10 yards. His catch rate is almost identical. His first downs per route run were identical.
His yards per target, yards per catch, and yards per route run were higher in 2023 than in the first seven weeks of the season. His 8.4 half-PPR PPG was WR47 in Weeks 1-7, worse than his WR41 preseason ADP.
Everything changed after that. DK Metcalf missed Weeks 8 and 9 with a sprained MCL. He returned in Week 11 after the bye week, but by then, JSN had claimed the top spot in Seattle's pecking order and didn't give it back, either.
From that point, JSN performed and played like a completely different receiver. His per-game averages in Weeks 8-18, if extrapolated over 17 games, would result in 139 targets, 107 receptions, and 1,379 yards. Those numbers would put him squarely in the top-10 discussion.
Bold prediction: Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the league in receiving yards in 2025 after having his breakout year last season, where he led all WRs with 4.56 yards per route run vs. man coverage from Week 10 on (minimum 200 routes). pic.twitter.com/J7nMczhuFt
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) February 4, 2025
It took a year and a half for JSN to break out, but he didn't look back once he did. JSN will now have another offensive coordinator in 2025. It'll be his third in three years, but there's reason to believe Klint Kubiak will be the best JSN has had.
Tyler Lockett will also likely be gone in 2025, eliminating some target competition from 2024. Fantasy managers should be optimistic that JSN will continue his breakout in 2025 and maybe take his game to another level, as Matt Harmon predicted above.
Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions
Williams missed most of his rookie season due to a knee injury he suffered late in his final collegiate season. In his second season, Williams was suspended for a gambling infraction.
Once he returned, he was not a full-time player, never logging a 70 percent snap share in a single game. The Lions' offseason moves last year signaled they were ready to make Williams a featured player in their offense.
He finished with a 72 percent snap share despite missing two complete games. He played over 70 percent of the snaps in 13 of his 15 games. Even though he only played 15 games, Williams still managed to break 1,000 yards and became one of just 21 receivers last season to do so. With Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit had plenty of offensive weapons to utilize, meaning Williams was rarely afforded many targets.
He finished 40th among receivers in targets (91). That was behind Elijah Moore, Rome Odunze, Khalil Shakir, and Jauan Jennings. Still, Williams managed to finish 21st in yards. Williams averaged six targets per game and finished with a 17.6 percent target share and a 20 percent target rate.
All three numbers significantly increased from Year 2 but are relatively modest among other receivers. So, how, then, could he finish with over 1,000 yards? Let's take a look at some of his efficiency metrics among 85 receivers with at least 50 targets:
- 23rd in Yards Per Route Run (2.26)
- Sixth in Yards Per Target (11.1)
- Fourth in Yards Per Reception (17.2)
- Fifth in YAC/Reception (7.4)
Despite these numbers, Williams was 34th in average depth of target (11.9). Detroit did a great job of running screen plays to the WR, getting the ball into his hands early. This helped keep his catch rate relatively high (63.7 percent) despite numbers that would seem to indicate he was largely a downfield weapon.
He most certainly was, but Detroit did an excellent job of utilizing him in different ways and Williams did a fantastic job of making the most of the opportunities he did get.
Yards per target leaders if only including 'on-target throws' from 2024:
16.8 - Jameson Williams
16.0 - A.J. Brown
15.5 - Darnell Mooney
14.6 - Brian Thomas Jr.
13.5 - Ladd McConkey
13.5 - Justin Jefferson
13.2 - Zay Flowers
13.1 - Ja'Marr Chase(minimum 50 targets -- source:…
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) February 2, 2025
Ever since Brad Holmes took over in Detroit, it seems as though everything he touches and does turns into gold. While they needed to wait two years for Jamo to become the player they expected him to be when they drafted him with the No. 12 overall pick, they displayed confidence in him, and he delivered.
In 2024, Williams was the player everyone thought he'd be. The arrow is pointing up. He looks like one of the NFL's most exciting, game-breaking receivers.
Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers
McConkey was drafted as the WR44 this past offseason. He was a popular sleeper pick because of the lack of target competition in Los Angeles.
Many thought that McConkey could lead the Chargers in targets. While most either thought that or believed in the possibility, no one thought he'd be as productive as he was. It took a few weeks for the breakout to happen, but once it did, McConkey stormed onto the scene.
| Stat (McConkey) | Weeks 1-6 | Weeks 7-18 |
| Targets (TPG) | 32 (6.4) | 80 (7.3) |
| Receptions (RPG) | 19 (3.8) | 63 (5.7) |
| Yards (YPG) | 219 (43.8) | 936 (85.1) |
| Catch Rate | 59.4 percent | 78.8 percent |
| Yards Per Target | 7.0 | 11.8 |
| Yards Per Catch | 11.5 | 14.9 |
| Target Share | 24.4 percent | 22.4 percent |
| Target Rate | 28 percent | 23 percent |
| Yards Per Route Run | 1.99 | 2.75 |
| YAC/Rec | 5.2 | 4.8 |
| Average Depth of Target | 9.9 | 10.3 |
| 1st Down Per Route Run | 10.9 percent | 11.8 percent |
| Half-PPR PPG | 8.7 | 15.1 |
As you can see from the chart above, while almost all of McConkey’s numbers went up in the second half, his target share and his target rate went down. It’s rare to see such a boost in production as a player gets a smaller piece of the pie. So, how did this work for McConkey?
To explain that, we need to look at Justin Herbert’s splits. In Weeks 1-6, Herbert averaged 25 pass attempts, 163 yards, and 1.2 touchdowns per game. Over 17 games, with those averages, he’d have finished with 425 pass attempts, 2,771 yards, and 20 touchdowns.
From Weeks 7-18, Herbert averaged 31.6 attempts, 255 yards, and 1.4 touchdowns. Those per-game averages would equate to 537 pass attempts, 4,328 yards, and 24 touchdowns. Those are some massive differences! We’re talking over 100 more pass attempts and 1,500 more yards!
The Chargers offense had a 50.8 percent pass rate in neutral game scripts in Weeks 1-6. That increased to 58.3 percent from Weeks 7-18. That increased volume allowed McConkey to earn less of the pie percentage-wise but still have more overall targets. One thing to be cognizant of is that while his target depth between the two splits didn’t change that much (9.9 yards compared to 10.3), his catch rate did.
His catch rate increased from 59.4 percent to 78.8 percent. Herbert’s completion percentage increased from 64.0 percent to 66.5 percent between the two splits, but that doesn’t come close to explaining a 19.4 percent increase in catch rate. His target share (24.4 percent), target rate (28 percent), and yards per route run average (1.99) early in the season foreshadowed an eventual breakout if the Chargers threw the ball more.
When they did that, fantasy managers, even the most optimistic kind, likely couldn’t have predicted what happened next. McConkey’s 2.75 yards per route run average in the second half of the season would rank in the top five, and his 15.1 half-PPR PPG average would’ve put him between Puka Nacua (15.2) and Nico Collins (14.9) at WR6.
Already pumped to watch Ladd McConkey and Brian Thomas Jr. next season pic.twitter.com/OJhM4mZa3Y
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) February 13, 2025
From Weeks 7-18, his per-game averages would result in 124 targets, 97 receptions, and 1,447 yards over 17 games. McConkey finished as the WR20 for the season with a 12.4 half-PPR PPG average. Despite a WR44 draft slot, McConkey finished as a top-24 receiver in eight weeks of the season. He was one of the best picks fantasy managers could have made.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
