X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Breakout Wide Receivers - Fantasy Football Outlooks for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jameson Williams, more

Jameson Williams - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Rob's biggest fantasy football breakout wide receivers. His 2025 fantasy football outlooks for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jameson Williams, Ladd McConkey.

This series continues to roll on with Part 2 of our breakout receivers. First, we must define what a breakout is. For this series, there will be two criteria a player can meet to qualify for breakout status. The first is a player who solidly outplays their ADP and preseason expectations. This is that preseason wide receiver who was ranked at WR46 but finished as WR15. The second is a player who significantly increases their stat line in a way they hadn't previously done. This is a player who averaged 750 yards receiving for two seasons and then breaks out for 1,300. Maybe that was even the expectation, but it's still a breakout.

Be sure to check out the previous entries of this series:

  • Breakout Running Backs - Part I
  • Breakout Running Backs - Part II
  • Breakout Wide Receivers - Part I

There is one final entry in this series where we'll identify some of the breakout tight ends from 2024, so be sure to look for that article soon. Sign up for our premium membership to take your fantasy game to a new level. This subscription includes additional tools, articles, and engagement from our fantastic team. Please use "BOOM" at checkout to receive a 10 percent discount.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

JSN's breakout season looked far from certain early in the season. He was trending closer to "bust" status through the season's first seven weeks than a breakout.

Despite his first-round pedigree and exceptional collegiate production, fantasy managers weren't sold. He was drafted as the WR41. Considering he was a first-round pick, entering his second season, and coming off a season where he saw over 90 targets, this low ranking is somewhat shocking in hindsight.

And, of course, this preseason ADP looks even more egregious with hindsight. But again, through the first seven weeks, it looked like a great call.

Statistic 2023 Weeks 1-7 Weeks 8-18
Targets (TPG) 93 (5.5) 55 (7.9) 82 (8.2)
Receptions (RPG) 63 (3.7) 37 (5.3) 63 (6.3)
Yards (YPG) 628 (36.9) 319 (45.6) 811 (81.1)
Catch Rate 67.7 percent 67.3 percent 76.8 percent
Yards Per Target 6.7 5.9 10.3
Yards Per Catch 9.9 8.6 12.9
Target Share 16.2 percent 19.3 percent 25.2 percent
Target Rate 21 percent 20 percent 25 percent
Yards Per Route Run 1.39 1.20 2.61
YAC/Rec 5.9 4.7 5.5
Average Depth of Target 6.4 8.3 9.8
1st Down Per Route Run 6.4 percent 6.4 percent 12.2 percent
Half-PPR PPG 7.0 8.4 14.5

His targets per game were quite a bit higher in the first seven weeks of the 2024 season compared to 2023, but there were a lot of similarities as well. His yards per game is within 10 yards. His catch rate is almost identical. His first downs per route run were identical.

His yards per target, yards per catch, and yards per route run were higher in 2023 than in the first seven weeks of the season. His 8.4 half-PPR PPG was WR47 in Weeks 1-7, worse than his WR41 preseason ADP.

Everything changed after that. DK Metcalf missed Weeks 8 and 9 with a sprained MCL. He returned in Week 11 after the bye week, but by then, JSN had claimed the top spot in Seattle's pecking order and didn't give it back, either.

From that point, JSN performed and played like a completely different receiver. His per-game averages in Weeks 8-18, if extrapolated over 17 games, would result in 139 targets, 107 receptions, and 1,379 yards. Those numbers would put him squarely in the top-10 discussion.

It took a year and a half for JSN to break out, but he didn't look back once he did. JSN will now have another offensive coordinator in 2025. It'll be his third in three years, but there's reason to believe Klint Kubiak will be the best JSN has had.

Tyler Lockett will also likely be gone in 2025, eliminating some target competition from 2024. Fantasy managers should be optimistic that JSN will continue his breakout in 2025 and maybe take his game to another level, as Matt Harmon predicted above.

 

Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions

Williams missed most of his rookie season due to a knee injury he suffered late in his final collegiate season. In his second season, Williams was suspended for a gambling infraction.

Once he returned, he was not a full-time player, never logging a 70 percent snap share in a single game. The Lions' offseason moves last year signaled they were ready to make Williams a featured player in their offense.

He finished with a 72 percent snap share despite missing two complete games. He played over 70 percent of the snaps in 13 of his 15 games. Even though he only played 15 games, Williams still managed to break 1,000 yards and became one of just 21 receivers last season to do so. With Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit had plenty of offensive weapons to utilize, meaning Williams was rarely afforded many targets.

He finished 40th among receivers in targets (91). That was behind Elijah Moore, Rome Odunze, Khalil Shakir, and Jauan Jennings. Still, Williams managed to finish 21st in yards. Williams averaged six targets per game and finished with a 17.6 percent target share and a 20 percent target rate.

All three numbers significantly increased from Year 2 but are relatively modest among other receivers. So, how, then, could he finish with over 1,000 yards? Let's take a look at some of his efficiency metrics among 85 receivers with at least 50 targets:

  • 23rd in Yards Per Route Run (2.26)
  • Sixth in Yards Per Target (11.1)
  • Fourth in Yards Per Reception (17.2)
  • Fifth in YAC/Reception (7.4)

Despite these numbers, Williams was 34th in average depth of target (11.9). Detroit did a great job of running screen plays to the WR, getting the ball into his hands early. This helped keep his catch rate relatively high (63.7 percent) despite numbers that would seem to indicate he was largely a downfield weapon.

He most certainly was, but Detroit did an excellent job of utilizing him in different ways and Williams did a fantastic job of making the most of the opportunities he did get.

Ever since Brad Holmes took over in Detroit, it seems as though everything he touches and does turns into gold. While they needed to wait two years for Jamo to become the player they expected him to be when they drafted him with the No. 12 overall pick, they displayed confidence in him, and he delivered.

In 2024, Williams was the player everyone thought he'd be. The arrow is pointing up. He looks like one of the NFL's most exciting, game-breaking receivers.

 

Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers

McConkey was drafted as the WR44 this past offseason. He was a popular sleeper pick because of the lack of target competition in Los Angeles.

Many thought that McConkey could lead the Chargers in targets. While most either thought that or believed in the possibility, no one thought he'd be as productive as he was. It took a few weeks for the breakout to happen, but once it did, McConkey stormed onto the scene.

Stat (McConkey) Weeks 1-6 Weeks 7-18
Targets (TPG) 32 (6.4) 80 (7.3)
Receptions (RPG) 19 (3.8) 63 (5.7)
Yards (YPG) 219 (43.8) 936 (85.1)
Catch Rate 59.4 percent 78.8 percent
Yards Per Target 7.0 11.8
Yards Per Catch 11.5 14.9
Target Share 24.4 percent 22.4 percent
Target Rate 28 percent 23 percent
Yards Per Route Run 1.99 2.75
YAC/Rec 5.2 4.8
Average Depth of Target 9.9 10.3
1st Down Per Route Run 10.9 percent 11.8 percent
Half-PPR PPG 8.7 15.1

As you can see from the chart above, while almost all of McConkey’s numbers went up in the second half, his target share and his target rate went down. It’s rare to see such a boost in production as a player gets a smaller piece of the pie. So, how did this work for McConkey?

To explain that, we need to look at Justin Herbert’s splits. In Weeks 1-6, Herbert averaged 25 pass attempts, 163 yards, and 1.2 touchdowns per game. Over 17 games, with those averages, he’d have finished with 425 pass attempts, 2,771 yards, and 20 touchdowns.

From Weeks 7-18, Herbert averaged 31.6 attempts, 255 yards, and 1.4 touchdowns. Those per-game averages would equate to 537 pass attempts, 4,328 yards, and 24 touchdowns. Those are some massive differences! We’re talking over 100 more pass attempts and 1,500 more yards!

The Chargers offense had a 50.8 percent pass rate in neutral game scripts in Weeks 1-6. That increased to 58.3 percent from Weeks 7-18. That increased volume allowed McConkey to earn less of the pie percentage-wise but still have more overall targets. One thing to be cognizant of is that while his target depth between the two splits didn’t change that much (9.9 yards compared to 10.3), his catch rate did.

His catch rate increased from 59.4 percent to 78.8 percent. Herbert’s completion percentage increased from 64.0 percent to 66.5 percent between the two splits, but that doesn’t come close to explaining a 19.4 percent increase in catch rate. His target share (24.4 percent), target rate (28 percent), and yards per route run average (1.99) early in the season foreshadowed an eventual breakout if the Chargers threw the ball more.

When they did that, fantasy managers, even the most optimistic kind, likely couldn’t have predicted what happened next. McConkey’s 2.75 yards per route run average in the second half of the season would rank in the top five, and his 15.1 half-PPR PPG average would’ve put him between Puka Nacua (15.2) and Nico Collins (14.9) at WR6.

From Weeks 7-18, his per-game averages would result in 124 targets, 97 receptions, and 1,447 yards over 17 games. McConkey finished as the WR20 for the season with a 12.4 half-PPR PPG average. Despite a WR44 draft slot, McConkey finished as a top-24 receiver in eight weeks of the season. He was one of the best picks fantasy managers could have made.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Xavier Worthy

Listed as Doubtful to Play in Week 2
Jayden Reed

Hopes to Return in November Following Surgery
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Kyle Tucker

"Unlikely" to Return When Eligible on Tuesday
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Ketel Marte

Expected to Return on Friday
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Quinshon Judkins

Questionable to Make NFL Debut in Week 2
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Alexander Hernandez

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Quang Le

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Card Opener
Santiago Luna

Set For His Debut At Noche UFC 3
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Sees Little Usage in Week 2, Outlook Still Trending Upwards?
Deebo Samuel Sr.

Leads Commanders in Catches, Scores Touchdown Again
Tucker Kraft

Posts Huge Performance on Thursday
Joe Mixon

Lack of Joe Mixon Injury Updates Sparking Concern for Fantasy Managers?
Jayden Reed

Fractures Collarbone, Headed for Injured Reserve
Austin Ekeler

Commanders Fear Austin Ekeler Tore his Achilles
Jesús Luzardo

Jesus Luzardo Strikes Out 10 in Win
Aaron Judge

Matches Yankees Legend with Two-Homer Game
Austin Ekeler

Injured, Carried Off Field with Non-Contact Injury
Jayden Reed

Ruled Out with Shoulder Injury
Quinshon Judkins

Browns Insider Expects NFL to "Come Down Heavy" on a Quinshon Judkins Suspension
Jayden Reed

Questionable to Return on TNF With Shoulder Injury
Anthony Volpe

Playing Through Partially Torn Labrum in his Shoulder
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
Charles Oliveira

Not Eyeing Retirement
Tyreek Hill

Chiefs, Steelers Eyeing a Trade for Tyreek Hill?
CFB

Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
CFB

Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Chris Godwin

to Be Limited in His Return Thursday
Brock Purdy

Out 2-5 Weeks With Turf Toe
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Kyle Monangai

to See More Carries Going Forward?
Quinshon Judkins

Plans to Practice Thursday
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Will Smith

Scratched With Hand Soreness on Wednesday
Ketel Marte

has Foot Contusion, Expected to Play Friday
Christian McCaffrey

Absent from Wednesday's Practice
Shohei Ohtani

Won't Pitch This Weekend
MacKenzie Gore

to Start on Thursday
Ketel Marte

Exits Early on Wednesday
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Aaron Rodgers

Dealing With Back Tightness
Dallas Goedert

Questionable for Week 2 at Chiefs
Anthony Rizzo

Retires
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Masyn Winn

Will Require Offseason Knee Surgery
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For 15 at Wyndham Championship
Bud Cauley

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied for Seventh at Tour Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 25th at Tour Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 19th at Tour Championship
Keith Mitchell

Misses Cut at Wyndham Championship
Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied for 10th at Tour Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for Second at Tour Championship
Gary Woodland

Could Hang Around at Procore Championship
Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suarez Strikes Out 12, Earns 12th Win on Tuesday
Karl Vilips

Ready for Napa Valley This Weekend
Taylor Montgomery

Heating Up at the Right Time
Jackson Koivun

May Be a Little Rusty at Procore Championship
Doug Ghim

Looking to Rise Up at Napa Valley
Josh Giddey

Re-Signs With Bulls for Four Years
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Joins Informal Skate
William Eklund

Skates With Sharks
Owen Power

Back at 100 Percent
Tyler Seguin

Cleared for Action
Mathew Barzal

Good to Go for Season Opener
Will Smith

Returns to Dodgers Lineup on Tuesday
Dustin Wolf

Signs Seven-Year Extension
Kyle Stowers

Dealing With Strained Side
Kyle Tucker

Placed on Injured List With Calf Strain
Bo Bichette

Goes on Injured List With Knee Sprain
Garrett Crochet

Shuts Out the Athletics
Royce Lewis

Launches Two Homers Monday Night
NBA

Mason Jones Takes His Talents to Australia
NBA

Talen Horton-Tucker Joins Reigning EuroLeague Champions
Malcolm Brogdon

on Knicks' Radar
Andrew Wiggins

Attracting Interest From Lakers
Miami Heat

Heat Interested in Reunion With Precious Achiuwa
Tyler Glasnow

Fans 11 in Seven No-Hit Innings Monday
Slade Cecconi

Takes No-Hitter Into Eighth Inning Monday
New York Knicks

Ben Simmons Reportedly Declined Knicks' Contract Offer
Elias Pettersson

Feeling "Good" Ahead of Season
NHL

Alex Formenton Rejoins Swiss Team
NHL

Grigori Denisenko Heads Back Home
CAR

Kevin Labanc Joins Hurricanes for Tryout
Ross Colton

Healthy for Start of Season
Caio Borralho

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Nassourdine Imavov

Extends Win Streak
Mauricio Ruffy

Gets Submitted
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Taps Out Mauricio Ruffy
Paul Craig

Retires After UFC Paris Loss
Denny Hamlin

Earns his First Cup Victory at Gateway
Kyle Larson

Damage Ruins Kyle Larson's Chance At a Top Finish at Gateway
Christopher Bell

Scores his Third Top-10 Finish at Gateway
Joey Logano

Maintains his Perfect Top-Five Streak at Gateway
Ryan Blaney

Struggles and Recovers for a Top-Five Finish at Gateway
Modestas Bukauskas

Scores First-Round Knockout
Bolaji Oki

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Mason Jones

Scores Comeback Win
Chase Elliott

Gets Lucky but Still Has Best Run at Gateway
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Wins Stage 2, but Was Let Down by Strategy
Tyler Reddick

Despite Bad Luck, Tyler Reddick Does What he Needed to Do
Chase Briscoe

Recovers from Incident with Daniel Suarez to Finish Second
William Byron

Late Caution Foils William Byron's Shot at Gateway Victory
Ryan Blaney

Should Contend at Gateway
Denny Hamlin

Fastest in Qualifying, the Favorite to Win at Gateway
Christopher Bell

Looking for Redemption at Gateway
Joey Logano

Has Been Elite at Gateway
Austin Cindric

Should Be On Your Radar at Gateway
AJ Allmendinger

Could Be a Sleeper Again at Gateway
Tyler Reddick

Southern 500 Near-Miss Makes Tyler Reddick a Stronger Option for Gateway
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace a Likely Gateway Contender
Alex Bowman

a Long Shot to Advance in Playoffs
Austin Dillon

Richard Childress Racing Looks Slower at Gateway, Which Will Hurt Austin Dillon
Shane Van Gisbergen

Starts 18th in Gateway Debut
Jeremy Swayman

Ready to Get Back on Track
Connor McDavid

Aiming for More Goals
NJ

Luke Glendening Signs Tryout Deal With Devils

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP