Breakout Fantasy Football Running Backs From The 2024 Season - Part II

Depending on how the fantasy football season ended for you -- and for most of us, it didn’t end the way we wanted it to -- looking back on the season, that might be something we’d rather not do. However, taking a review of the season is beneficial. Here, we’ll look back at three breakout running backs from the 2024 season.

First, we must define what a breakout is. For this series, there will be two criteria a player can meet to qualify for breakout status. The first is a player who solidly outplays their ADP and preseason expectations. This is that preseason running back who was ranked at RB46 but finished as RB15. The second is a player who significantly increases their stat line in a way they hadn't previously done. This is a player who averaged 1,000 yards rushing for two seasons and then breaks out for 1,600.

These two different definitions will enable us to identify various kinds of breakouts. Sign up for our premium membership to take your fantasy game to a new level. This subscription includes additional tools, articles, and engagement from our fantastic team. Please use "BOOM" at checkout to receive a 10 percent discount.

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Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

You may not think that Robinson is a breakout player. After all, he came into the season as the RB3. Everyone’s expectations for him were already sky-high. Big things were expected! But that’s just it; they were expected. They hadn’t been done before.

Fantasy managers had sky-high expectations of Robinson in 2023, too. He was drafted as the RB3 during his rookie year as well but struggled mightily. He finished as the RB20 in half-PPR PPG, a far cry from where fantasy managers had taken him.

This year, however, Robinson fulfilled that promise. He was drafted as the RB3, and he finished as the RB4. We may not think of that as a breakout because we always expected it; maybe we even knew Robinson would do it, but going from RB20 to RB4 is a breakout. That doesn't even tell the whole story.

In the table above, you can compare his 2023 season to what he did this past season. However, you’ll also see what he did from Weeks 6-17, where he took another step forward. Saquon Barkley had seven games where he scored 20 half-PPR points. Robinson had seven just in Weeks 6-17. Last year, he had one.

From Weeks 6-17 (11 total games since Atlanta had a Week 12 bye), Robinson finished inside the top 15 in 10 out of 11 games (90.9 percent). He finished as “the” RB1 once (9.0 percent), a top-5 RB three times (27.2 percent), a top-12 RB five times (45.4 percent), and a top-15 RB once (9.0 percent).

Robinson's 2024, in totality, is what fantasy managers expected him to do. In reality, though, he did not only live up to those expectations but also surpassed them. In Weeks 6-17, Robinson’s 20.2 half-PPR PPG average was closer to Barkley’s 2024 PPG average than Derrick Henry, who finished as the RB2.

This was a true breakout for Robinson. He didn’t just finish as a top-5 running back; he cemented himself as, who I believe to be, the undisputed No. 1 overall running back for the 2025 season.

Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

When you do not get double-digit carries in back-to-back weeks until Week 11 and still finish with over 1,100 rushing yards as a fourth-round rookie, you broke out. Tampa Bay was committed to Rachaad White early in the season. He logged a 70 percent or higher snap share in the season's first three games.

Bucky Irving and Alvin Kamara (in 2017) are the only two RB to top 1,500 scrimmage yards with a snap rate below 50%:

(2007-2024 data -- Source: @TruMediaSports) pic.twitter.com/5ooxiZtPZc

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) January 8, 2025

It wasn’t until Week 12, when Irving played more than 50 percent of the snaps in a game, that White was active. He crossed that threshold in Week 6, but White didn’t suit up that week. The reality is that it took Tampa Bay a long time to fully unleash Irving, but the results were impressive once it did.

If we extrapolate his per-game averages from Weeks 10-18 over a 17-game season, he’d have 263 carries, 1,494 rushing yards, 10 rushing touchdowns, 58 targets, 51 receptions, and 464 receiving yards. Fantasy managers shouldn’t expect that kind of stat line in 2025, but it speaks to how incredible he was in the second half of the season.

His 16.7 half-PPR PPG would have ranked RB6 for the season, right between Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara. It was higher than Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, and James Cook’s PPG averages. It wasn’t just the overall production, though. He was incredibly efficient. Check out where he ranked in some advanced metrics among 54 running backs with 100 carries:

• 16th-Most Rushing Yards Per Game (66.0)
• Fifth-Highest Yard Per Carry Average (5.42)
• Seventh-Highest Explosive Run Rate (6.8 percent)
• Ninth-Lowest Stuff Rate (40.8 percent)
• Third-Highest Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (26.0 percent)
• Fourth-Highest Yards After Contact Per Attempt Average (3.02)

Irving was drafted as the RB53, and he finished as the RB20, but over the second half of the season, he was a must-start RB1. He’ll still be in a committee with White next year, but he’ll be the lead back. He should be valued as a top-15 running back for 2025.

Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers

It was quite the season for Hubbard. The Panthers drafted Jonathon Brooks in the second of the 2024 NFL Draft. Most fantasy managers thought it was only a matter of time before he returned from his knee injury and made this backfield a full-blown committee, eventually taking it over.

Brooks was drafted as the RB34, while Hubbard came off the board at RB42. Brooks didn’t return until Week 12, and it was very short-lived, suffering another torn ACL. Midway through Hubbard’s breakout season, Carolina rewarded him with a contract extension, which after Brooks’ injury is excellent for all parties -- Carolina, Hubbard, and fantasy managers.

Top-10 most fantasy points over ADP-based expectation (best cost-adjusted picks)

[+Running Backs]:

1. Bucky Irving
2. Chuba Hubbard
3. Saquon Barkley
4. Chase Brown
5. Tyrone Tracy
6. Jahmyr Gibbs
7. Derrick Henry
8. Bijan Robinson
9. Rico Dowdle
10. Josh Jacobs

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) January 14, 2025

Hubbard was solid in 2023. He averaged 9.5 half-PPR PPG and finished as the RB35. That year, he finished with 1,135 scrimmage yards, blowing past his previous career-high of 786 yards. In 2024, however, he took his game to a new level.

Hubbard finished the 2024 season as the RB12, averaging 14.67 half-PPR PPG. In 16 games this season, Hubbard had five 20+ half-PPR point performances. It resulted in three top-5 finishes, five top-12 finishes, and two other weeks inside the top 24.

Hubbard finished seventh in rushing yards and 11th in scrimmage yards per game among running backs. He also took his efficiency to a higher level as well. He averaged just 3.8 yards per carry in 2023, but look at where he ranked in several advanced metrics this past season among 54 running backs with at least 100 carries:

• Seventh-Highest Rushing Yards Per Game (79.7)
• 10th-Highest Yard Per Carry Average (4.78)
• 11th-Highest Explosive Run Rate (6.0 percent)
• Eighth-Lowest Stuff Rate (40.0 percent)
• 21st-Highest Missed Tackle Forced Per Attempt (17.0 percent)
• Seventh-Highest Yards After Contact Per Attempt (2.70)

Hubbard was fantastic this year. Bryce Young took a step forward late in the season. The team’s offensive line paid dividends. With Brooks likely out for most of the 2025 season, Hubbard will reprise his role as Carolina’s No. 1 running back. He should be viewed as a strong mid-RB2 for next season.

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