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Dave's Expert NFL rushing yards props for Week 4. His best rushing yards bets with odds, analysis & predictions. Get weekly rushing yards picks you can trust.
Week 4 is upon us, and we are about to finish the first quarter of the season. Well, it's not technically a quarter anymore since the league went to a 17-game schedule, but you get the point.
So far in 2025, we have seen running backs like Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and James Cook get off to hot starts. We've also seen the other side of the spectrum and have had backs like Ashton Jeanty start the season on a sour note. However, could this be the week we finally see Jeanty show signs of life?
Make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Here are some of my favorite rushing props for Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season.
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Best NFL Rushing Props Week 4: Top Rushing Yards Bets & Expert Picks
Before we begin, a quick aside. The one thing I don't hear mentioned enough regarding successful prop betting is the importance of correctly predicting the outcome of a game and how it correlates to a player's props. Take last week, for example. In this article (as well as my own betting portfolio), I recommended the over on Bijan Robinson's rushing total of 79.5 yards. I expected Atlanta to be playing with a lead, or at worst, be in a competitive game against the lowly Carolina Panthers. With Carolina's rush defense being a below-average unit, it felt like we should cruise to an easy win.
However, the worst possible outcome occurred, and Carolina jumped out to a big lead and never looked back. This meant Atlanta was forced to abandon the run, and Robinson finished with 72 rushing yards on 13 carries. That was a frustrating loss because Robinson was doing his part. We just needed Atlanta to stay competitive in the game. Unfortunately, that's how things go sometimes in this wacky business we have chosen.
I make my own betting lines for each NFL game every week and use that as a guide to make my own prop bets. This doesn't guarantee you will get a prop correct, but it's still an important step in the process. With that said, we'll try our best to correctly anticipate how each Week 4 game will turn out and make our prop selections accordingly.
Featured Running Back Rushing Yards Props
Omarion Hampton OVER 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
After Najee Harris' unfortunate Achilles tear, Hampton is in line to take over as the Chargers' RB1.
Omarion Hampton's first NFL TD!
DENvsLAC on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/o65ViiNCR5
— NFL (@NFL) September 21, 2025
Los Angeles takes on the New York Giants in Week 4, and this is a game where Hampton could break out in a big way. New York has allowed over 153 rushing yards per game so far in 2025. That is second-worst in the league. The Giants also rank 32nd in FTN Fantasy's defensive rushing DVOA and have given up the 10th most explosive rushing yards this year per Fantasy Points Data Suite.
The Chargers are 6.5-point favorites and should be playing with a lead for the majority of this contest. That will ensure plenty of opportunities for Hampton to feast, and he should easily surpass this total.
I also don't mind wagers on Hampton's rushing attempts or longest rush props, and this is a spot I will probably sprinkle on some of Hampton's alternate rushing lines, too. I got this line when it was 58.5, but I am still comfortable playing it at the above number.
*This line has been bet up to 65.5 at most sportsbooks, and I would still play it for a full unit at that number.*
Ashton Jeanty OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1 Unit
Jeanty has yet to surpass this total so far this year. His highest rushing output was a 63-yard effort against the Washington Commanders last week. While it's been a disappointing start for the 2025 NFL Draft's sixth overall pick, much of the blame should be placed on the atrocious play of Las Vegas's offensive line.
However, this week is the perfect opportunity for Jeanty and the Raiders' ground attack to get rolling. Las Vegas takes on a Chicago Bears defense that currently ranks 26th in defensive rushing DVOA and 25th in PFF's rushing defense grade. Chicago has also allowed the second-most rushing yards to running backs so far in 2025.
With the Raiders being 1.5-point favorites, we should expect a competitive game where Jeanty will get plenty of work. If he doesn't produce in this matchup, then it's time to officially hit the panic button. I don't expect that to be the case here, though, and believe Jeanty will have his best game to date this weekend.
Javonte Williams Under 51.5 Rushing Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk 1.14 Units to Win 1 Unit
Williams has been one of the best stories so far in 2025, but things could start going in the wrong direction in Week 4. Dallas takes on the Green Bay Packers this Sunday. Green Bay has one of the best run defenses in the league. The Packers are sixth in defensive rushing DVOA, and opponents are averaging just 3.2 yards per carry against them so far this year.
Dallas will also be missing guard Tyler Booker due to a high-ankle sprain. Booker is currently PFF's fifth-highest graded run-blocking guard, and his absence will negatively impact the Dallas ground attack.
This is just a bad matchup for Williams. With Dallas also being 7-point underdogs and its swiss cheese defense going up against Jordan Love and the high-power Green Bay offense, we could see Williams and the ground attack get scriped out of this game early.
Secondary Running Back Rushing Yards Props
Chuba Hubbard Under 56.6 Rushing Yards (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .55 Units to Win .5 Units
Hubbard has yet to really get going this year. Through three games, he is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry. Among 48 backs with 15+ carries, Hubbard ranks 28th in Next Gen Stats rush yards over expected and 46th in PFF elusive rating.
He draws another tough matchup this week as Carolina faces a New England Patriots defense that's allowed the second-fewest rushing yards and has given up just 18 explosive rushing yards, too. This doesn't feel like the week we see Hubbard and the Carolina rushing attack get back on track.
*This line has been bet down to as low as 49.5 at some books. There are still a few 51.5's available, though, but I would not place a wager at the current numbers. If you still want to throw a bet on this line, scale down in units.
TreVeyon Henderson OVER 10.5 Yards Longest Rush (-130) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .39 Units to Win .3 Units
Both Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson lost fumbles in last weekend's loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Stevenson lost two fumbles, including a costly one on his way into the endzone that severely hurt the team's chances of winning the game.
DEFENSE WITH ANOTHER HUGE PLAY‼️
📺: #PITvsNE on @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/UcSV1Oax6D
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) September 21, 2025
Henderson was on the field for the vast majority of plays following that fumble. Initially, I wanted to attack Henderson's rushing yards prop, but I just don't have confidence we'll see the coaching staff fully hand him the reins. However, Henderson won't need a ton of volume to hit his longest rush prop given the Patriots' Week 4 opponent.
New England takes on the Carolina Panthers and their aforementioned porous run defense. Henderson has home run-hitting ability and is a threat to score anytime he touches the ball. That's a good recipe for success when going against a Panthers run defense that's been vulnerable to explosive plays.
Woody Marks OVER 28.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .55 Units to Win .5 Units
Woody Marks Anytime Touchdown (+375) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .3 Units to Win 1.13 Units
Marks seems to have worked his way into a timeshare with Nick Chubb. He had six carries in last week's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars and played 48% of offensive snaps compared to Chubb's 52%. With Houston sitting at 0-3, the club might opt to give Marks more work as he appears to be the more explosive player than Chubb.
That would come at a good time as Houston takes on the Tennessee Titans this week. Tennessee's run defense is terrible, as the Titans rank 31st in defensive rushing DVOA. The Titans have also allowed the fourth-most rushing yards so far this year. Keep an eye out for when books drop his rushing prop. I expect it to be a low number and very attainable for the talented rookie.
Even if he doesn't completely surpass Chubb as the RB1, he could still post a quality outing as Houston's ground game should finally have success against a bad Titans run defense. I also like taking a shot at Marks to find the endzone at the above odds. Other sportsbooks have his anytime touchdown prop closer to 2-1, so we are getting great value at the above number.
David Montgomery UNDER 12.5 Yards Longest Rush (-105) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .53 Units to Win .5 Units
Montgomery had a huge game this past Monday night against the Baltimore Ravens. He ran for 151 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and had a 72-yard run in the process.
DAVID MONTGOMERY RUMBLES FOR 72 YARDS!
DETvsBAL on ESPN/ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN App pic.twitter.com/PcvsC3hJgW— NFL (@NFL) September 23, 2025
Montgomery and Detroit's offensive line made light work of Baltimore's defensive front. Things will be different this weekend as the Lions take on a Cleveland Browns defense that's been highly effective at stopping opponents' rushing attacks.
Cleveland ranks first in defensive rushing DVOA and has allowed a total of zero explosive rushing yards this season. We could see this defensive front give the Lions' offensive line a hard time, similar to what the Green Bay Packers did to Detroit in Week 1.
I do believe Detroit will win this game and cover the 9.5-point spread in the process. However, I think the running game, and Montgomery specifically, could struggle.
I prefer playing Montgomery's longest rush prop as opposed to his rushing yards total, as I believe that Montgomery could post a respectable yardage total on volume alone if Detroit is playing with a lead for the majority of this game.
*This line has actually moved to 13.5 in some books. I don't agree with the market here, and would bet the under at 13.5 for a full unit.
Quarterback Rushing Props to Target
Carson Wentz Anytime Touchdown (+700) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .25 Units to Win 1.75 Units
Wentz played well in his first game, filling in for J.J. McCarthy last weekend. After cornerback Isaiah Rodgers and the Vikings defense handled the Cincinnati Bengals' offense like Superman fighting a bunch of toddlers, Wentz didn't have to do much heavy lifting.
This weekend, Minnesota takes on the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first international game of the year. Pittsburgh's defense has not been particularly effective through three games, and it has allowed opposing quarterbacks to run against them almost at will. The Steelers have currently allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks and are tied for the second-most rushing touchdowns allowed to quarterbacks so far this season.
Wentz doesn't really qualify as a rushing quarterback, but he has been more than willing to tuck the ball down and use his legs throughout his career. I expect to see Wentz take off and run a few times in this game, and I think he is live to find the endzone.
Jaxson Dart OVER 34.4 Rushing Yards (-109) DraftKings Sportsbook
.44 Units to Win .4 Units
Dart is set to make his NFL debut this weekend. He gets a brutal draw as the Giants take on a Los Angeles Chargers team that is white hot and whose defense is playing at a high level. The Chargers currently rank seventh in total defensive DVOA and have allowed the eighth-fewest total yards per game.
Why the Giants' coaching staff felt like this game was the right time to throw Dart into the fire is beyond me, but this is what we've come to expect from the New York Giants.
While the Chargers' defense has played well, they have been vulnerable to quarterbacks on the ground. Los Angeles has allowed the second-most rushing yards to quarterbacks through three games.
Dart has more rushing upside than some realize and has surpassed this total in 22 of 45 career collegiate games. We should see the Giants dial up a few designed runs for Dart to take advantage of this weakness in Los Angeles' defense. We could also see Dart scramble quite frequently if he is confused by the Chargers' defense or if receivers are struggling to get open downfield.
There are a few paths where this prop hits, so I like taking a stab at Dart surpassing this total.
Long Shot Rushing Yards Props & Value Plays
Ashton Jeanty Most Rushing Yards - Sunday Only Excluding MIN/PIT (+2000) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .1 Units to Win 2 Units
Omarion Hampton Most Rushing Yards - Sunday Only Excluding MIN/PIT (+2000) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .1 Units to Win 2 Units
Breece Hall Most Rushing Yards - Sunday/Monday Games (+3000) Caesars Sportsbook
Risk .1 Units to Win 3 Units
Weather & Surface Impact Analysis
Severe weather conditions can have a major impact on NFL games. It can influence play calling and thus influence rushing props totals. Some of our plays this week are playing in domes, but a few are playing outdoors.
Just make sure you keep an eye on the forecasts as we get closer to game time. You can read our weekly NFL Weather Report here. With mainly warm weather forecasted for most of the country, there should be minimal impacts in Week 4.
Week 4 Rushing Props Summary
Here's a quick, handy recap of all the rushing props I recommended in this article in one place!
- Omarion Hampton OVER 60.5 Rushing Yards
- Ashton Jeanty OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards
- Javonte Williams Under 51.5 Rushing Yards
- Chuba Hubbard Under 56.5 Rushing Yards
- TreVeyon Henderson OVER 10.5 Yards Longest Rush
- Woody Marks OVER (28.5) Rushing Yards
- Woody Marks Anytime Touchdown
- David Montgomery UNDER 12.5 Yards Longest Rush
- Carson Wentz Anytime Touchdown
- Jaxson Dart OVER 34.5 Rushing Yards
Thanks for reading, and make sure you check back again before Sunday for updated info and more betting content from RotoBaller!
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