MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (4/4/2026)

April 4, 2026

Kevin's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/4/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Yordan Alvarez, Vinnie Pasquantino, Giancarlo Stanton and more!

Welcome back, RotoBallers! It's the first full Saturday slate of MLB games this season and I'm looking to get back on the right track. Last Saturday left a sour taste in my mouth after neither of the Cubs we bet on were able to go deep off Miles Mikolas, Teoscar Hernandez fell short and Andrew Vaughn was ruled out before he was able to even get anything going. But hey, this is a new Saturday so let's cash in on some fresh opportunities.

I've got my eye on four bets throughout games in Sacramento, Kansas City, New York and Los Angeles. With the season still young let's be sure to keep that bet size a little smaller than normal. I don't recommend betting more than four homers per slate as it can be hard to maintain a bankroll betting more than four.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, April 4, 2026. We've listed the best odds, and the book you can get them at, as of the time of this writing but still be sure to odds-shop as odds can change throughout the day. Now let's get to it.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (4/4/2026)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Saturday, April 4.

Yordan Alvarez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+265, Fanatics)

Sometimes the best thing you can do with home run bets is go with the obvious choice. And with how Alvarez has started the season it's hard not to want to back him here. He's started out hitting for an impressive 304 wRC+ to go along with a 20% barrel rate. Small sample size for sure but that's a very good start for us.

Another aspect of things I like so far for Alvarez is his 55.0% fly-ball rate. His average exit velocity is also sitting at 97.2 MPH, well above his career norm of 93.6 MPH. Tie these together with his 20% barrel rate and there's a lot to love just from the batter profile.

Yordan Alvarez takes off 🚀 pic.twitter.com/2wZXMWI9Ot

— MLB (@MLB) March 28, 2026

He gets a matchup against Luis Morales of the A's. Morales had a forgetful first start of the season in Toronto as he gave up three homers to the Blue Jays in 4.1 IP. All three of those homers came off of his four-seamer, a pitch that Alvarez is traditionally solid against.

That gives us a gameplan for Alvarez to simply get a few four-seamers over the plate that he can crush. If not, he's always been a very solid hitter against secondary pitches.

Also, the weather is Sacramento is going to be near perfect conditions with a high of 80 degrees forecasted. That makes it near impossible for me not to find a way to back the Astros' hottest hitter to get us started.

Vinnie Pasquantino OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+480, BetRivers)

It's been a bit of a rough start to the season for Pasquantino, who hasn't hit a homer yet this season, but we're hoping for that to change on Saturday. Originally he was matched up against Brandon Sproat, but I still like him in Game One of their doubleheader against Chad Patrick.

With Pasquantino I'm viewing this as a buy-low spot. His early season numbers haven't been pretty but many of his percentage stats match what he did last season. He's still hitting the ball in the air at a similar rate to his career norms while he's hitting fewer grounders and more line drives. Eventually these are going to turn into good results.

Vinnie Pasquantino homers in five straight games pic.twitter.com/UWYdgHoxUQ

— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) November 18, 2025

Patrick's debut for Milwaukee was pretty solid against the White Sox, but he did end up giving up a longball to Munetaka Murakami. That helps play into the lefty platoon advantage angle. Pasquantino posted a 47.6% fly-ball rate against righties at home in 2025. Patrick also is allowing quite a few balls in the air. He posted a 44.2% fly-ball rate in 2025 and 50% of balls in play were flyballs against Chicago.

I'm also loving what I'm seeing with the pitch mix we're expecting. Patrick is usually pretty dependent on his cutter, throwing it to lefties 38.6% of the time in 2025. Pasquantino hit cutters for a 184 wRC+ last season. If Patrick isn't throwing him cutters then we can expect four-seamers to be the second option and sinkers right behind it. The best option for a homer would certainly be the four-seamer, so we'll have two main pitches we're aiming for Pasquantino to crush.

The Royals' slugger should be able to get a couple in the air on Saturday afternoon and that should be beneficial, especially with the forecast showing 15 MPH winds coming from the WNW, which pushes out towards right field at Kauffman Stadium. That gives us a solid shot at this cashing if he makes solid contact at least once.

Let's hope Pasquatch gets the barrel on one and lets the wind take care of everything else.

As a side note, I do like his chances to go deep against Sproat in Game Two but doubleheaders always seem to get wonky and I'd rather bet the first game in those scenarios. Do what you will, but I'll be sticking with the 28-year-old just for Game One.

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Giancarlo Stanton OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+325, Bet365)

As we mentioned with Alvarez, sometimes the best thing to do with home run bets is to go with the obvious choice. Stanton has been scorching hot to start the season for New York, though he only has one homer to show for it. That's going to change on Saturday in his matchup against the Marlins' Max Meyer.

Part of the reason for Stanton's lack of homers is the environments he's been hitting in. San Francisco and Seattle aren't exactly hitters' parks, especially in April. But he still managed to post up a .500 BA coming into Friday's home opener. That's impressive for a dude that usually prioritizes power over average.

Giancarlo Stanton's first home run of the year is a NO-DOUBTER! pic.twitter.com/DWv1B48XVl

— MLB (@MLB) March 27, 2026

We'll expect him to rebound to the norm on Saturday against Meyer, who struggled against the Rockies at home but didn't yield any homers to them. He's a slider first type of pitcher and that's a match made in heaven for a guy like Stanton.

Last season Stanton posted a .421 xwOBA against sliders, the highest xwOBA he posted against any pitch (outside of slurves, which he saw just 1% of the time). That means he's likely to pivot to either sinkers or four-seamers, both of which Stanton crushes. He also featured his sweeper more in his Opening Day, but that may be too close to his slider.

Wind may be a factor here as it's currently forecasted to be around 15 MPH coming in from the ESE, which is essentially blowing in from right field, but if someone's got the power to not let the wind affect them it's Stanton. He's got too many options to crush against Meyer and I'm hoping one is the patented Stanton blister that ends up 20 rows deep into the left field stands.

Luke Raley OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500, Hard Rock)

We finish the night in Los Angeles where we're going to back a platoon matchup against one of my favorite fades in the Angels' Jack Kochanowicz. Most are likely to back Cal Raleigh in this matchup, which is more than understandable, but there's a ton to love here with Raley.

For starters, he came into Friday night's action leading the Mariners in homers. He's hit three in his 19 AB, all coming against Cleveland. He only had one matchup against the Yankees and didn't start on Friday against Angels' southpaw Reid Detmers. That gives him plenty of rest and we can assume he'll be anxious to crush one.

Coming into Saturday Raley is posting up solid numbers in average exit velocity (92.6 MPH), hard-hit rate (50%) and barrel rate (41.7%). When he's getting the bat on the ball this season he's doing real damage.

THIS GAME 😳

Now Luke Raley homers in a third straight game! pic.twitter.com/Y7Fj2V6YIg

— MLB (@MLB) March 29, 2026

Now pair that up with the matchup against Kochanowicz. While he didn't give up any homers in his season debut, Houston did rough him up for six runs (five earned) in just four innings. That shows us he's definitely still fadeworthy this season.

As for the matchup, we'll expect Kochanowicz to attack with sinkers as he's generally a groundball pitcher. He may resort to a four-seamer as a secondary pitch. Both pitches are ones that Raley can drive. In a fully healthy season in 2024 he posted a 179 wRC+ against sinkers and a 254 wRC+ against four-seamers.

We're likely to see Raley put one of those in play. And in a platoon role where he's looking to capitalize we can expect that he's trying to put one over the fence. The only thing going against us here is the potential to be removed from the lineup if a lefty comes in, so let's get the damage done early.

Let's have a great Saturday!

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