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Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/25/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
We have a full slate of games today, as all thirty teams are in action. Today, we will focus on four hitters in favorable environments for home runs. Whether that be stadium, weather, matchup, or all of the above, we have narrowed down our pool to provide our most likely players to home run, with odds included.
I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need two of our four-hitters to go yard.
Please keep reading to see my favorite home run prop bets from MLB games on Friday, April 25, 2025. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop at other sportsbooks to find the best value on your wagers.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Friday, April 25:
- Kyle Manzardo, Cleveland Guardians
- Wilyer Abreu, Boston Red Sox
- Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies
- Tyler Soderstrom, Athletics
Kyle Manzardo OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Our first two targets are going to come from the same game, and there is a reason behind that, more than the matchups and stats. There is a 5-10 mph wind blowing straight out to right field. Some may wonder why this is such a significant advantage, but the stadium is very receptive to winds in that direction due to its open concourses and prevailing wind directions.
Over next three years the #Guardians plan to more renovations to Progressive Field including (finally) upgrading right field upper deck into better social spaces.
h/t @ScottSabolFOX8 pic.twitter.com/xkotSsX9AL
— MLB Cathedrals (@MLBcathedrals) January 13, 2023
On days like this, it creates a wind tunnel to right field, and we have two pitchers who give up a ton of long balls and struggle with left-hand hitters. Count me in. Tanner Houck will get the ball for the Red Sox. He has a 4.92 xFIP, 2.19 HR/9, 30.0 percent FB, and a 40.0 percent Hard Hit. He has a .483 wOBA, .320 ISO, 3.9 HR/9, 26.8 percent FB, and a 36.5 percent Hard Hit against left-hand hitters in 2025.
Kyle Manzardo profiles incredibly well and may be my top bet on the day. Manzardo is red hot against right-hand pitching with a .501 wOBA, .533 ISO, 36.4 percent FB, and a 45.5 percent Hard Hit over his last 18 PAs. He has two home runs in that span.
Houck throws three primary pitches to left-hand hitters, two of which have been crushed this season. His sinker has a .710 xSLG and three HRs against it, and the sweeper has a .372 xSLG and two HRs against it. Below is how Manzardo profiles against those two pitches since 2024.
- SI: 18 Pitches, .734 wOBA, .750 ISO, 31 LA, 1 HR
- ST: 36 Pitches, .604 wOBA, .571 ISO, 26 LA, 1 HR
That production is elite, and my favorite thing about this spot for Manzardo is that he pulls the ball for all his power production. I have attached his spray chart below. If he can get a hold of something in this wind and stadium against Houck, look for it to go.
Wilyer Abreu OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+340 FanDuel Sportsbook)
As mentioned above, I would be adding another player from this game to my card, and Wilyer Abreu is my top option for the Red Sox. He pulls the ball more than any of the other left-handed hitters in this lineup, and he has been the best hitter for this Sox team.
Abreu has a .411 wOBA, .250 ISO, 49.0 percent FB, and a 39.2 percent Hard Hit this season against right-handed pitching. He has a .364 wOBA, .250 ISO, 58.3 percent FB, and a 33.3 percent Hard Hit over his last 19 PAs. He will face off against righty Ben Lively.
Lively has allowed a 4.38 xFIP, 1.05 HR/9, 45.3 percent FB, and a 36.0 percent Hard Hit in 2025. He has allowed a 1.7 HR/9, 42.9 percent FB, 40.0 percent Hard Hit, and a 45.7 percent Pull against left-hand hitters this season. Lively is getting hit with two pitches primarily against left-hand hitters. He is throwing a four seam fastball with a .459 xSLG this season and a curveball with a .711 xSLG and two home runs against it this season. Below is how Abreu performs against those two pitches.
- FF: 44 Pitches, .446 wOBA, .571 ISO, 34 LA, 1 HR
- CU: 28 Pitches, .410 wOBA, .750 ISO, 5 LA, 0 HR
Abreu is a great bet to go yard tonight in a game that should have fireworks.
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Our next bet will take us to Coors Field, which is always a great spot to hunt for home runs. The hitting conditions won’t be excellent with a 50-degree forecast, and eight mph wind blowing in the park will play closer to neutral than normal. This is still Coors Field we're talking about here, and with Andrew Abbott on the mound, there is bound to be a long ball or two.
Abbott has allowed a 1.64 HR/9 and a 57.1 percent FB this season. The FB percent in this park is extremely scary, and to add insult to injury, the Reds’ bullpen has not been much better. They have a 1.51 HR/9 and a 48.3 percent FB this season. With Abbott, we want to attack him with right-handed hitters. He had a 1.9 HR/9, 52.4 percent FB, and a 28.8 percent Hard Hit in 2024. In 2025, he has a 1.0 HR/9, 60.0 percent FB, and a 26.7 percent Hard Hit.
Hunter Goodman has been the best right-handed bat on this team against left-handed pitching since 2024. In 2025, he has a .403 wOBA, .296 ISO, 42.9 percent FB, and a 42.9 percent Hard Hit against the split. He has eight home runs against left-handed pitching dating back to 2024.
#Rockies Hunter Goodman extends his hitting streak to eight games with a two-run homer (361 ft) against the Royals’ Cole Ragans. pic.twitter.com/feW0A4sPa2
— Patrick Lyons (@PatrickDLyons) April 24, 2025
Abbott uses a heavy mix to right-hand hitters but features two pitches primarily. His four-seam fastball in 2024 had a .463 xSLG, and his change-up had a .368 xSLG. He throws these two pitches over 80 percent of the time against right-hand hitters in 2025. Below is how Goodman performs against each pitch.
- FF: 71 Pitches, .302 wOBA, .273 ISO, 28 LA, 1 HR
- CH: 25 Pitches, .419 wOBA, .400 ISO, 16 LA, 1 HR
Everything lines up tonight for Goodman to have a big game and, most likely, a big fly against Abbott and the Reds’ bullpen.
Tyler Soderstrom OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+370 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I debated long and hard about whether to write Soderstrom up two nights in a row and ultimately decided that I like this matchup more, so I have to go right back to the well. This game will be played in Sacramento, a stadium that is in the top five in baseball in HR/9. The wind is expected to blow out to dead center at 10+ mph, which is perfect for home runs.
Sean Burke will toe the rubber for the White Sox and has struggled mightily in 2025. Burke has a 5.42 xFIP, 2.49 HR/9, 43.2 percent FB, and a 36.0 percent Hard Hit. The White Sox's bullpen has been nearly as bad. They have a 4.36 xFIP, 1.53 HR/9, and a 42.7 percent FB.
Burke has been hit hard by both sides of the plate, but since we are targeting Soderstrom, we need to focus on what he has done against lefties. Burke has a .351 wOBA, .263 ISO, 2.6 HR/9, 46.9 percent FB, and a 31.3 percent Hard Hit against left-handed hitters in 2025. His primary four pitches all have a .607 xSLG or higher, but his Slider has yielded four home runs against it. Soderstrom has a .367 wOBA, .333 ISO, 40 LA, and one HR off 34 pitches since 2024.
Soderstrom has a 437 wOBA, .368 ISO, 32.1 percent FB, and a 20.8 percent Barrel against right-hand pitches in 2025. He is tied in the big leagues this season with nine HR. He has hit eight of those against right-hand pitching.
I mentioned yesterday that I really liked the spot for Nick Kurtz, and I am again in line. Kurtz has tremendous power, and if we have a good day, keep an eye out in Discord for a parlay between the two. This atmosphere should be electric for home runs, like Cleveland earlier at night.
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