RADIO
Nick Mariano dives into the ADP pool to see which players are going much higher or lower in CBS fantasy baseball drafts compared to other sites and outlines how to take advantage of the average draft position trends.
Average Draft Position (ADP) is a must-have piece of information when it comes to drafting. While every league is different and may have a particularly aggressive or conservative group of owners when it comes to certain players, it’s the best tool we have when analyzing players’ value. Now, instead of just talking about total ADP from all sites, we’re going to look at CBS’s respective ADP data.
Specifically, we’re going to talk about players who are priced higher or lower — being selected earlier or later — on CBS compared to other sites. The price tag being higher doesn't make them undraftable and being lower doesn't make them an automatic steal, but it helps to stay oriented with the bigger picture of ADP data. In general, players on CBS can expect top-flight starting pitchers to be undervalued and earlier middle-infielders to be overvalued against the average.
What we're looking to sidestep is the anchoring effect — a cognitive bias where we over-rely on the first piece of information encountered (such as the ADP ranking column in a draft room). Here, we simply raise awareness of those whose draft stock is seemingly getting raised or dropped based on nothing other than the site's default rank. ADP data current as of February 23.
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Cheaper Early-Round Picks on CBS
Max Scherzer (SP – WAS) – CBS ADP: 16 (ESPN: 5, RTSports: 4, NFBC: 5, Fantrax: 4, Yahoo: 4, Average: 6.33)
It’s wild to see someone being taken inside the top-five on all sites and then dropped down into the middle of most second rounds on another. While Mad Max is still the top arm being picked on CBS, Scherzer does not deserve to have 15 hitters being taken ahead of him. Scherzer, Chris Sale and Jacob deGrom are going 16,17 and 18, while Corey Kluber is eight spots below average and Justin Verlander is another 10.
Those are all stellar options and its a clear site-wide trend for the top of anyone’s rotation, but the discount at the very top is worth the most. Scherzer is being taken with the third pick on some sites, including my TGFBI draft, and no one’s batting an eye. I’d love a pick at the back-end of CBS snakes where I could lock up Scherzer and a big bat.
Marcell Ozuna (OF – STL) – CBS ADP: 78 (ESPN: 48, RTSports: 75, NFBC: 72, Fantrax: 71, Yahoo: 58, Average: 67)
There’s a split on Ozuna, as four sites undervalue him while ESPN (and Yahoo to a degree) place great value on his bat returning to form. Ozuna’s shoulder has been cleared for all baseball activities and while 2018’s results were disappointing, his 7.3 barrels per plate appearance were 50th out of 390 hitters with at least 100 batted balls and his 117.2 mph maximum exit velocity was ninth. He may not ever return to 2017’s wild 23.4% HR/FB rate with 37 homers, but projections line him up for 28-30 dingers and an average around .290. Insert one Paul Goldschmidt into the counting stats equation and you’ve got a stew going.
Mitch Haniger (OF – SEA) – CBS ADP: 96 (ESPN: 56, RTSports: 97, NFBC: 85, Fantrax: 72, Yahoo: 77, Average: 81)
Haniger wasted no time in reminding us of the pop by bashing a homer over the left-center wall in his first Spring Training game, but those on CBS are still getting a two-round discount on the rising Mariner. He showed great promise by adjusting his hand level in the batter’s box entering 2017 and shined in April before an injury derailed his season. He followed that up with a 90-26-93-8-.285 line in ‘18 and the 20th most batted balls at 95 mph or greater (195) in the bigs. He was able to accrue 683 PAs near the top of Seattle’s lineup and should benefit from volume yet again in ‘19.
Nelson Cruz (DH – MIN) – CBS ADP: 121 (ESPN: 70, RTSports: 87, NFBC: 101, Fantrax: 105, Yahoo: 71, Average: 93)
Nellie Cruz, perennial power stud, can be had at the beginning of the 11th round in 12-team CBS leagues. He (rightfully) costs a sixth-rounder on ESPN/Yahoo and while eligibility rules are a factor with players such as Cruz and Khris Davis, this bastion of consistency should continue to thrive in a Minnesota offense that has added Marwin Gonzalez and would benefit greatly from Byron Buxton blossoming. Cruz has hit at least 37 homers with 93 RBI and a batting average north of .255 in five straight seasons and sticks in the AL where he can DH (he made four starts in the outfield last year) and stay healthy. With a 9.3% Barrels/PA rate in ‘18 -- 12th-best for hitters with at least 100 batted balls -- look for his age-38 season to keep on producing.
Robinson Cano (2B – NYM) – CBS ADP: 131 (ESPN: 97, RTSports: 134, NFBC: 128, Fantrax: 115, Yahoo: 91, Average: 116)
Robbie Cano, don’tcha know? The Mets have done well this offseason to cover up the MIA Yoenis Cespedes as he heals his heels with additions of Cano and Jed Lowrie. I’m not worried about overall lineup production, especially if Pete Alonso can find starts (not at Cano’s expense) while Brandon Nimmo, Amed Rosario and Jeff McNeil grow. Cano’s 80-game suspension drop him from several leaderboards, but he still produced a .303/.374/.471 triple slash with 10 homers, 44 runs and 50 RBI in half a season.
Other Cheaper Picks
C: Buster Posey -- CBS ADP: 144, Average ADP: 128
1B: Edwin Encarnacion -- CBS ADP: 129, Average ADP: 108
2B: Cesar Hernandez -- CBS ADP: 216, Average ADP: 180
3B: Mike Moustakas -- CBS ADP: 178, Average ADP: 147
SS: Tim Anderson -- CBS ADP: 150, Average ADP: 128
OF: Justin Upton -- CBS ADP: 97, Average ADP: 87
OF2: David Peralta -- CBS ADP: 141, Average ADP: 127
OF3: Ian Desmond -- CBS ADP: 174, Average ADP: 150
OF4: Ender Inciarte -- CBS ADP: 179, Average ADP: 142
SP1: James Paxton -- CBS ADP: 65, Average ADP: 55
SP2: Mike Foltynewicz -- CBS ADP: 108, Average ADP: 91
RP1: Roberto Osuna -- CBS ADP: 99, Average ADP: 81
RP2: Brad Hand -- CBS ADP: 110, Average ADP: 87
Costly Early-Round Picks on CBS
Willson Contreras (C – CHC) – CBS ADP: 98 (ESPN: 100, RTSports: 120, NFBC: 136, Fantrax: 110, Yahoo: 135, Average: 117)
Contreras and his owners were slapped with a third-year slump that yielded just 10 homers and a .249 average after he’d hit above .275 with 33 homers in only 193 games across his first two seasons. His HR/FB rate fell to 9.3% after eclipsing 23% in 2016 and ‘17 as his average exit velocity and launch angles cratered. His 87.1 mph AEV was 77th out of 96 catchers with >150 PAs and the 6.8-degree launch angle was 336th out of 390 hitters with 100 batted balls. The talent’s there for the soon-to-be 27-year-old backstop, but there’s little reason to reach into the top-100 to pick him.
Joey Gallo (1B – TEX) – CBS ADP: 84 (ESPN: 113, RTSports: 119, NFBC: 103, Fantrax: 102, Yahoo: 106, Average: 105)
While you have to pay up for Gallo’s services on CBS, this is an instance of higher price not meaning “stay away.” He enters his age-25 season with two 40-homer campaigns under his belt and nearly all projection systems calling for a third. Yes, you have to absorb a batting average that toes the Mendoza line but his power has become severely underrated because of the BA reputation.
Scooter Gennett (2B – CIN) – CBS ADP: 58 (ESPN: 92, RTSports: 99, NFBC: 90, Fantrax: 85, Yahoo: 87, Average: 85)
Gennett’s power pace predictably slowed in 2018 after his wild 20.8% HR/FB rate in ‘17, though his OPS only dipped to .847 from .874 and no one’s scoffing at an 86-23-92-4-.310 line from the middle infield. His counting stats have held steady over two seasons, though he could see a boost with Cincinnati’s beefed-up lineup surrounding him. Those buying into the contract-year performance will note Cincinnati hasn’t responded to Gennett’s contract extension wishes and will likely move on with so much youth in the pipeline.
Corey Seager (SS – LAD) – CBS ADP: 52 (ESPN: 66, RTSports: 91, NFBC: 80, Fantrax: 69, Yahoo: 53, Average: 69)
This is rather rich for a hitter returning from Tommy John surgery, no matter the pedigree. Seager tore his UCL late last April and is just starting to make throws across the diamond in workouts. He may not be ready come Opening Day and if he is then he may not be an everyday player out of the gate. Regardless, I imagine his contact tool comes back just fine and he flirts with a .300 average (projections call for .280s) but the power is a question mark. He was never a monster in that department and no projection system has him surpassing 25 home runs. This is troubling for someone who doesn’t steal. I’ll pass and get Elvis Andrus, Andrelton Simmons, Tim Anderson or Paul DeJong much later at no real hit to the composite.
Carlos Martinez (SP – STL) – CBS ADP: 88 (ESPN: 141, RTSports: 113, NFBC: 127, Fantrax: 128, Yahoo: 130, Average: 121)
I had Martinez penciled in here before the news of his shoulder pain and being shut down from throwing for two weeks dropped on Feb. 21, but that makes this easier. His arm gave out last year and he returned in a controlled bullpen role down the stretch, but a 1.35 WHIP and ugly 4.42 xFIP/4.45 SIERA underneath the 3.11 ERA spell trouble. I’d love to blame his walk rate ballooning from its usual 8.5% to 11.5% on the injury, but now I can’t bank on that being solved. I wouldn’t buy at his true ADP, let alone with an elevated price tag.
Other Pricier Picks
C: Yasmani Grandal -- CBS ADP: 125, Average ADP: 142
1B: Max Muncy -- CBS ADP: 100, Average ADP: 118
2B: Dee Gordon -- CBS ADP: 82, Average ADP: 98
3B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. -- CBS ADP: 28, Average ADP: 44 (crazy dynasty bump?)
3B: Rafael Devers -- CBS ADP: 123, Average ADP: 139
SS: Jurickson Profar -- CBS ADP: 120, Average ADP: 137
OF1: Mallex Smith -- CBS ADP: 91, Average ADP: 113
OF2: A.J. Pollock -- CBS ADP: 95, Average ADP: 105
OF3: Billy Hamilton -- CBS ADP: 133, Average ADP: 164
OF4: Jesse Winker -- CBS ADP: 163, Average ADP: 222
SP1: German Marquez -- CBS ADP: 72, Average ADP: 99
SP2: Luis Castillo -- CBS ADP: 112, Average ADP: 125
RP1: Jordan Hicks -- CBS ADP: 201, Average ADP: 215
