RADIO
Eli analyzes disappointing players from last week to find potential Week 8 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
We now enter the seventh week of this series, where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.
In Week 7, we saw stat lines such as the Green Bay Packers running backs combining for 49 total yards, the Cincinnati Bengals wide receivers combining for 302 receiving yards, and the Denver Broncos wide receivers getting just 14 targets.
After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.
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Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?
This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Denver Broncos Wide Receivers
Pat Shurmur
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Denver Broncos | 10.5 | 19.56 | 151.69 | 0.88 |
| Pat Shurmur Prior (185 games) | 11.9 | 20.29 | 150.58 | 0.88 |
| Denver Broncos WRs vs. Cleveland Browns | 9 | 14 | 99 | 0 |
The Denver Broncos wide receiver room had a subpar day against the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football where they combined for nine receptions on 14 targets for 99 receiving yards. On the season this group has now totaled 88 receptions (12.57 per game) on 135 targets (19.29 per game) for 1147 receiving yards (163.86 per game) and six receiving touchdowns (0.86 per game). If the previous coaching and seasonal averages are any indicators, the Broncos wide receivers will have better days than this past Sunday, but the 2021 season per-game averages are right in line with what we'd expect in general.
Fantasy players this impacts: Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Kendall Hinton, K.J. Hamler, and John Brown
Houston Texans Wide Receivers
David Culley & Tim Kelly
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Texans | 14.94 | 20.94 | 207.38 | 1.38 |
| Tim Kelly Prior (32 games) | 14.59 | 20.84 | 192.72 | 1.13 |
| Texans WRs vs. Arizona Cardinals | 13 | 20 | 77 | 0 |
The Houston Texans wide receivers really struggled on Sunday, as they combined for 13 receptions on 20 targets for 77 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season this group has now totaled 84 receptions (12 per game) on 125 targets (17.86 per game) for 988 receiving yards (141.14 per game) and five receiving touchdowns (0.71 per game). Based on all of this information, there should be brighter days ahead for the Houston Texans wide receivers - especially once Tyrod Taylor returns from his injury.
Fantasy players this impacts: Nico Collins, Brandin Cooks, Danny Amendola, Chris Conley, and Chris Moore
Green Bay Packers Running Backs
Matt LaFleur & Nathaniel Hackett
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Packers | 23.81 | 120.38 | 0.81 | 5.69 | 7.19 | 43.5 | 0.19 |
| Matt LaFleur Prior (64 games) | 22.91 | 104.75 | 0.91 | 5.20 | 6.59 | 43.64 | 0.28 |
| Nathaniel Hackett Prior (100 games) | 24.69 | 105.5 | 0.69 | 5.97 | 7.98 | 47.18 | 0.23 |
| Packers RBs vs. Washington Football Team | 12 | 27 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
The Green Bay Packers may have gotten the win against the Washington Football Team, but the team's backs struggled all day, combining for 12 carries, 27 rushing yards, six receptions, eight targets, 22 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns. On the season this group has now totaled 151 carries (21.57 per game), 659 rushing yards (94.14 per game), two rushing touchdowns (0.29 per game), 37 receptions (5.29 per game), 42 targets (six per game), 281 receiving yards (40.14 per game), and five receiving touchdowns (0.71 per game). Looking at the data, it appears that the Packers running backs may be in for a slight improvement in usage & performance if Matt LaFleur and Nathaniel Hackett revert to their previous coaching tendencies.
Fantasy players this impacts: Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon, and Kylin Hill
Chicago Bears Wide Receivers
Matt Nagy & Bill Lazor
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Bears | 15.38 | 23.25 | 164.06 | 0.81 |
| Matt Nagy Prior (64 games) | 12.48 | 19.58 | 149.95 | 0.84 |
| Bill Lazor Prior (73 games) | 12.60 | 21.47 | 153.37 | 1.19 |
| Bears WRs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | 14 | 71 | 0 |
The Chicago Bears got stomped by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this past Sunday, losing 38-3. In this game, the Bears' wide receivers struggled, combining for seven receptions on 14 targets for 71 receiving yards. On the season, this group has totaled 67 receptions (9.57 per game) on 106 targets (15.14 per game) for 715 receiving yards (102.14 per game) and two receiving touchdowns (0.29 per game). At this point of the season, there are legitimate questions on if the Bears' wide receivers even come close to head coach Matt Nagy's career averages, offensive coordinator Bill Lazor's career averages, or last year's season averages. But the bottom line is that there should be at least some improvement coming for the Bears wide receivers in the coming weeks.
Fantasy players this impacts: Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Damiere Byrd, and Marquise Goodwin
Los Angeles Rams Running Backs
Sean McVay & Kevin O'Connell
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Rams | 24 | 104.25 | 0.75 | 3.13 | 4.44 | 27.75 | 0.13 |
| Sean McVay Prior (112 games) | 22.34 | 97.16 | 0.80 | 3.99 | 5.41 | 37.26 | 0.21 |
| Kevin O'Connell Prior (32 games) | 21.84 | 94.97 | 0.59 | 3.91 | 5.44 | 34.59 | 0.09 |
| Rams RBs vs. Detroit Lions | 17 | 49 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
The Los Angeles Rams pulled out the win against the Detroit Lions, but it was a lot closer than many expected. The Lions did a great job of shutting down the Rams running backs, who combined for just 17 carries, 49 rushing yards, three receptions, six targets, 19 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns. After this game, the Rams running back room has totaled 153 carries (21.86 per game), 632 rushing yards (90.29 per game), five rushing touchdowns (0.71 per game), 19 receptions (2.71 per game), 27 targets (3.86 per game), 158 receiving yards (22.57 per game), and a receiving touchdown (0.14 per game) on the season. Typically Sean McVay's running back room has gotten a little more usage and performed a little better on a per-game basis than the 2021 group, so there may be some slight improvement from this group in future weeks.
Fantasy players this impacts: Darrell Henderson, Sony Michel, Jake Funk, and Cam Akers
Kansas City Chiefs Running Backs
Andy Reid & Eric Bieniemy
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Chiefs | 19.75 | 83.5 | 0.5 | 4.75 | 6.94 | 36.5 | 0.19 |
| Andy Reid Prior (352 games) | 19.97 | 87.43 | 0.64 | 4.94 | 6.74 | 42.64 | 0.28 |
| Eric Bieniemy Prior (48 games) | 19.17 | 83.08 | 0.71 | 4.94 | 6.38 | 42.42 | 0.38 |
| Chiefs RBs vs. Tennessee Titans | 5 | 20 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
The Kansas City Chiefs got demolished by the Tennessee Titans this past week and the team's running backs struggled as they combined for just five carries, 20 rushing yards, six receptions, nine targets, 54 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 121 carries (17.29 per game), 497 rushing yards (71 per game), four receiving touchdowns (0.57 per game), 28 receptions (four per game), 40 targets (5.71 per game), 219 receiving yards (31.29 per game), and two receiving touchdowns on the season (0.29 per game). Andy Reid has generally been one of the worst head coaches at utilizing his entire running back room so it's not that much of a surprise that this group will occasionally have games like this past Sunday. Still, this group's season averages are running on the lower side even for an Andy Reid running back room, and there should be some improvement in future weeks.
Fantasy players this impacts: Darrel Williams, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerick McKinnon
Decline Ahead?
A mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Cincinnati Bengals Wide Receivers
Zac Taylor & Brian Callahan
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Bengals | 14.69 | 24.44 | 169.69 | 0.81 |
| Zac Taylor Prior (37 games) | 13.86 | 24.11 | 171.89 | 0.68 |
| Brian Callahan Prior (32 games) | 14 | 24.34 | 170.97 | 0.69 |
| Bengals WRs vs. Baltimore Ravens | 19 | 32 | 302 | 1 |
The Cincinnati Bengals wide receivers went off against the Baltimore Ravens this past Sunday as they combined for 19 receptions on 32 targets for 302 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. On the season they have totaled 99 receptions (14.14 per game) on 149 targets (21.29 per game) for 1427 receiving yards (203.86 per game) and 10 receiving touchdowns (1.43 per game). While Zac Taylor and Brian Callahan are two of the more WR-friendly coaches in the NFL, Sunday's performance was on the higher end of what we should expect from the Bengals wide receivers.
Fantasy players this impacts: Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate, and Mike Thomas
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Wide Receivers
Bruce Arians & Byron Leftwich
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Buccaneers | 14.94 | 21.63 | 196.94 | 1.81 |
| Bruce Arians Prior (256 games) | 13.03 | 22.11 | 179.55 | 1.16 |
| Byron Leftwich Prior (41 games) | 13.51 | 21.56 | 190.66 | 1.54 |
| Buccaneers WRs vs. Chicago Bears | 16 | 24 | 203 | 4 |
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver room went off against the Chicago Bears this past week as they combined for 16 receptions on 24 targets for 203 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns. After this game, the Buccaneers wide receivers have totaled 120 receptions (17.14 per game) on 179 targets (25.57 per game) for 1571 receiving yards (224.43 per game) and 14 receiving touchdowns (two per game). While Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich are two of the more WR-friendly coaches in the league, the 2021 Buccaneers per game wide receiver room averages are currently running on the higher side and there may be a slight dip in the averages in the future. Still, even with an expected slight dip in usage and production in the future, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receivers are still going to be above average fantasy producers and you should continue to hold them and enjoy the ride in your leagues.
Fantasy players this impacts: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Tyler Johnson, Scotty Miller
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