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We have a 7-game main slate on tap tonight, and it's gonna be a messy one. If we thought the weather was a massive headache on Wednesday, well, Thursday's slate says, "Hold my beer." There are threats of rain in over half the game, and the LAD/WAS game has extreme chances of rain and already looks like a rainout is coming. For that reason, I am not mentioning anyone in that game, but I always love stacking versus Patrick Corbin if that game plays.
The slate starts with which pitchers to build around. Do we pay all the way up for Jacob deGrom or save some cash for Framber Valdez, Corbin Burnes, or the best risk/reward play in Luis Castillo? Then it's all about the bats, which there is plenty of yet again tonight. Coors will get a lot of attention, but the Astros are once again in a great spot even though they disappointed of late. For the full slate rundown, strategy, and more, listen in to MLB DFS Quick Hits.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 7/1/2021. The lineup will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also check out today's FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. It’s also important to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, contact me on Twitter @bdentrek.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Framber Valdez - P, HOU at CLE ($9,800)
There are some interesting decisions to be made when paying up for pitcher tonight. I am going with Framber as my top pay-up option tonight. In June, Framber made five starts which all went six innings or more, and four of the starts went at least seven innings. He allowed no more than three runs in any start and struck out at least five in each start. His 22.6% strikeout rate is solid, but his 17.5% K-BB is somewhat more impressive. As always, Framber limited hard contact by allowing just 3.1% barrels and had an SwStr% of 12.1%. Framber has been locked in, and that should continue tonight versus a Cleveland team that may be without Jose Ramirez. Over the last month, Cleveland is striking out 25% of the time versus LHP with a 95 wRC+. Framber is my guy tonight. He's safer with a nice ceiling and $1700 cheaper than deGrom. Listen in to Quick Hits for a deeper breakdown of the top four pitching options.
Johnny Cueto - P, SF at AZ ($7,300)
First, the cheaper pitching options are not ideal. If you do not like Cueto, then I have no problem going to Anderson. For now, Cueto is my punt option. He is the definition of a grinder, and we could use a 5+ inning start from our cheap pitching option. He has thrown at least six innings in back-to-back starts and has thrown five or more innings six of his last seven starts. Cueto has allowed three runs or less in five of those starts and five or more strikeouts in five of those starts. Cueto is not going to light the stat sheet up but has the ability to creep into the 20+ point range, and that would be tremendous. He does get the super juicy matchup versus the DBacks tonight, and that's a major plus. Over the last month, the DBacks are striking out 26.4% of the time versus RHP with a .212 average, .090 ISO, and 64 wRC+. Most do not like to play Cueto, so hopefully, he comes in lowly rostered again tonight.
Other Options: Jacob deGrom (NYM at ATL) $11,500, Corbin Burnes (MIL at PIT) $9,200, Luis Castillo (CIN vs SD) $9,000, Ian Anderson (ATL vs NYM) $7,100
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DraftKings DFS Infielders
Jason Castro - C, HOU at J.C. Mejia ($2,200)
Castros is not a world-beater and has not done much this season. Not long ago, Castro was one of the leaders in hard-hit rate and barrels, but that is not this year. He has been the main backup for Martin Maldonado, but Maldonado is likely out tonight as he has been placed on the bereavement list. That leaves Castro as the regular catcher in a great matchup today and is basically the minimum. Castro is walking 17.1% of the time with a .172 ISO and 131 wRC+, so he is not a complete slouch. He's actually 31% better than average. He gets a great matchup tonight versus Mejia as well. The Astros will be popular once again, and Castro makes for a solid, cheap option in the Astros stack. His price and matchup alone make him a one-off option and a cash game punt as well. Playing Castro allows you to pay up at pitcher and/or grab some pricier bats.
Paul Goldschmidt - 1B, STL at Antonio Senzatela ($4,500)
Goldy comes into tonight's juicy matchup swinging a hot bad. He has hit safely in seven of his last 11 games for a .300 average. Over the 11 game stretch, he has two home runs with a .200 ISO and a .878 OPS. Additionally, he is only striking out 11.1% of the time while walking 11.1% of the time. Overall, the overall stats should be even better as he is barreling the ball 20% of the time with a 62.9% hard-hit rate over the 11 game stretch. Tonight he heads to Coors and faces Senzatela, who has allowed RHH to hit .296 with a .474 SLG and 1.5 HR/9. The Cards are in a great spot tonight, and Goldy (like his teammates) is far too cheap tonight.
Garrett Hampson - 2B/OF, COL vs. Adam Wainwright ($3,500)
Hampson has not been playing every day of late, which is a crime in itself, but he has performed when he has got the start. Over his last six starts, he is hitting over .400 with hits in four of six starts, all multiple-hit games. Hampson also has three doubles and a home run over those six starts. He comes into tonight's game priced down due to the lack of playing time, making him a great value if he gets the privilege of playing tonight. Waino has been good this season but is allowing RHH to slug .387 this season with 1.4 HR/9. There is a ton of value in Coors tonight, and Hampson is one of the best as he will likely hit near the top of the order as well if he cracks the lineup.
Brandon Crawford - SS, SF at Merrill Kelly ($4,600)
I have not written up BCraw enough this season, and tonight I could not avoid talking about him. Crawford has hit safely in five of his last eight games for a .278 average. The average does not sound sexy, but it's the production that has come with it that is sexy. He has four extra-base hits, including two home runs and seven RBI. His .276 ISO and .896 OPS is quite solid as well. He racks up DK points with the best of them and is one of the better pay-up spots at SS tonight. He will face Kelly which is the other sweet part of the play. On the season, Kelly is allowing LHH to slug .377 this season. The Giants' late-night hammer is one of my favorite stacks tonight, and Crawford will be a major piece of that stack.
Luis Urias - 3B, MIL at Wil Crowe ($4,800)
Urias comes into tonight's action scorching hot. He has hit safely in 12 of his last 13 games with a .345 average. He has seven extra-base hits, three home runs, and scored and driven in 13 runs each. Urias is mashing, and his .236 ISO and .972 OPS back that up. Tonight he faces Crowe, which bodes well for Urias and the Brew Crew. Crowe has thrown 25 innings in his last five starts and has allowed 23 runs and nine home runs over that stretch. He is also getting spanked by RHH this season to tune a .327 average, .600 SLG, and 2.9 HR/9. The Brewers are a great stack tonight and will go virtually un-rostered. It is not the best ballpark to hit in, but runs can still be put up in bunches. So if you are stacking the Crew, start with Urias and Willy Adames and then build.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
LaMonte Wade Jr./Steven Duggar - OF, SF at Merrill Kelly ($4,100/$3,300)
I already mentioned I love the Giants late-night hammer, and here are two more pieces to that hammer. Wade has been awesome as the Giants' leadoff bat, and that should continue tonight. Wade is hitting .296 over his last eight games with four multi-hit games, five extra-base hits, and seven RBI. He is also only striking out 10.7% of the time, which means many balls in play. Then there is Duggar, who hits farther down the lineup but has hit safely in five of his last eight games for a .333 average. More importantly, Duggar is walking 17.2% of the time while only striking out 20.7% of the time. The drop in strikeouts is huge as he has been striking out close to 40% of the time this season. Both of the Giants' outfielders are great plays tonight. Both can be in stacks. Duggar is obviously the value if you need it, but both are strongly in play when stacking tonight.
Michael Brantley/Kyle Tucker - OF, HOU at C.J. Mejia ($3,900/$3,700)
So the Astros...Yeah, the Astros...What a let down right? A juicy three-game series versus the Orioles and nothing to show for it. Now they travel to Cleveland, have another juicy matchup, and all got decreases in price. Thanks, DraftKings!!!! That brings us to the always too cheap outfield duo of Brantley and Tucker. Brantley has hit safely in 10 of his last 11 games for a .362 average, while Tucker is hitting .338 in June with hits in all but four June games he played in. Both of the Astros' outfielders have been limited in the power department but rack up hits in bunches and are usually involved in daily run production. If the Astros due go off tonight, you will want the value these outfielders bring to your lineups. Brantley would even be a cash game near-lock for me tonight.
Dylan Carlson - OF, STL at Antonio Senzaltela ($3,800)
Carlson comes to Coors swinging it well. He has a four-game hitting streak going while also hitting safely in eight of his last nine games. Over the nine-game stretch, he is hitting .278 with three extra-base hits. Carlson is hitting first or second for the Cardinals and to get a top-of-the-order bat-like Carlson in Coors at this ridiculous price is outstanding. On the season, LHH are hitting .294 with a .435 SLG versus Senzatela, and I do not see tonight going well for Senzatela. There is a ton of value on both sides of Coors tonight, so expect them to be chalky. Carlson is going to be good chalk, especially in a Cardinals' stack.
DraftKings DFS Stacks
- Houston Astros (C.J. Mejia, RHP)
- St. Louis Cardinals (Antonio Senzatela, RHP)
- San Francisco Giants (Merrill Kelly, RHP)
- Sneaky Stacks- Cincinnati Reds (Ryan Weathers, LHP)
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