Making Sense of Tampa Bay's Pitching Staff

June 28, 2021

Michael Grennell evaluates the pitching staff of the Tampa Bay Rays to determine which starters and relievers have value for the second half of the 2021 fantasy baseball season.

OK, seriously — is there any tougher pitching staff to decipher in fantasy than Tampa Bay's? Between the never-ending merry-go-round that is their closer committee, their frequent use of openers and then the normal issue of back-end rotation guys not being fantasy assets, it can be difficult to stay on top of which pitchers you should be rostering and which you should be ignoring.

It's been made even more difficult now with their ace Tyler Glasnow being sidelined for the foreseeable future due to a partially torn UCL. So now it looks like the Rays have a starting rotation of Ryan Yarbrough, Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Shane McClanahan and Josh Fleming, plus whenever they throw an opener out there for a game or two. That doesn't include some of the pitching prospects the Rays have who could be brought up and make a difference.

So we're going to take a look at Tampa Bay's rotation, the guys waiting in the minors, and the closer committee today with the goal of trying to figure out which Rays you should roster and which to ignore.

Can Glasnow Have Any Value Going Forward?

This is a bit of a tricky situation. The initial word from Glasnow was that he hoped to return this season in time for a potential playoff run, and maybe a little sooner than that. However, the latest update on his condition said that the team is much more optimistic about his chances of recovery, and as of now they are planning on having him shut down from throwing for four weeks while also have him receive treatment on the bones in his elbow that helped cause the issue.

So if everything goes well with his recovery and rehab, it's possible we could see him return by early September, and maybe even by the end of August (although that would be a stretch).

Glasnow was having a great year before the injury, going 5-2 with a 2.66 ERA, 0.932 WHIP and 36.2 percent strikeout rate over 88 innings of work. Taking a look at his Statcast metrics, they all seem to back up the fact that Glasnow was dominating on the mound:

• 2.73 xERA (90th percentile)
• .190 xBA (92nd percentile)
• .262 xSLG (90th percentile)
• 36.2 K% (95th percentile)
• 37 Whiff% (95th percentile)

Alright, we've established Glasnow is good when healthy (what a surprise, right?), but now we need to decide if he'll still have enough value this season to be worth stashing. For the purposes of this article, let's assume that he doesn't return until September. Here's the Rays schedule for Sept. 1-Oct. 3:

• vs Boston (2 games)
• vs Minnesota (3 games)
• @ Boston (3 games)
• @ Detroit (3 games)
• @ Toronto (3 games)
• vs Detroit (4 games)
• vs Toronto (3 games)
• vs Miami (3 games)
• @ Houston (3 games)
• @ New York (3 games)

Looking at his performances so far this year, he's pitched well against Boston, New York, and Miami as he's posted a 1.88 ERA with 30 strikeouts over a combined 24 innings across four starts against them. With Detroit's offense lacking this year, that provides another nice potential matchup for Glasnow. The biggest challenge that Glasnow would have in September would be Toronto, as he is 0-1 with an 8.44 ERA and 1.594 WHIP over two starts against the Blue Jays — both of which have been by far and away his worst starts of the season.

So the bottom line is that yes he can have value if he's able to make it back in time for the fantasy playoffs. He'll likely have more impact in head-to-head formats than in roto leagues, but he's still very much worth stashing for now. Managers should consider taking a swing at trading for him sooner than later while there's still a chance that he can be acquired for a less than premium price.

Which Current Starters Are Worth Rostering?

We're going to do some quick hits here and run through the current starting rotation in Tampa Bay, starting with Ryan Yarbrough.

Ryan Yarbrough - 44% rostered

Yarbrough has had a bit of an up and down season. He opened up the year going 0-2 with a 6.48 ERA over his first three starts. More recently he's struggled again in his last two starts against the White Sox and Red Sox, allowing a combined 12 runs (10 earned) over 8 1/3 innings of work.

In between those two rough stretches, he's been having a nice year as he's gone 4-1 with a 3.08 ERA and 21.7 percent strikeout rate over 55 1/3 innings in that span. He's not going to be a high-strikeout guy, but he'll still have plenty of value in fantasy.

Bottom line: He should be rostered in all 14-team and deeper mixed leagues, as well as AL-only formats. In 10- and 12-team mixed leagues, he's a solid streaming option when he gets a favorable matchup.

Rich Hill - 68% rostered

The second-highest rostered pitcher in Tampa Bay's rotation, Hill got off to a shaky start this season by opening the year with an 8.82 ERA and 1.531 WHIP over his first four starts. Since then it's pretty much been smooth sailing, as he has gone 5-2 with a 2.09 ERA, 0.961 WHIP and 27.1 percent strikeout rate over 11 starts.

There are some potential signs of concern for his value looking at Statcast metrics, as his 9.4 percent walk rate ranks in the 37th percentile, and his 4.10 xERA suggests he's getting a little lucky on the mound currently. On the other hand, that might not mean much as he has posted a lower ERA than xERA in five of his last six seasons.

Bottom line: With Glasnow out, Hill is the hottest pitcher in Tampa Bay's rotation. If he's still available on the waiver wire in your league, make sure to grab him up this week. Take advantage of the hot hand right now, then if he continues to pitch well he could be a useful trade chip heading into the deadline. 

Shane McClanahan - 45% rostered

One of the top prospects in the Rays' system entering this year, McClanahan has had some ups and downs so far but has still looked pretty solid. The biggest ding on his value so far is that he has not been able to pitch deep enough into games to get a chance at wins. He has only gone five or more innings in just five of his first 10 starts this year.

However, after going six innings in his start against the Angels on Saturday, he's now pitched five or more innings in three straight starts, which could be a sign of better things to come for him. Besides the innings concerns, McClanahan has been pretty solid otherwise. He's posted a tolerable 4.09 ERA this year to go along with a 28.9 percent strikeout rate in 50 2/3 innings of work.

Bottom line: McClanahan is a guy on the rise in Tampa Bay. If you can handle the risks of a slightly elevated ERA and the higher chance he doesn't go five innings, then he's a good young pitcher with high strikeout upside available in over 50 percent of leagues.

Josh Fleming - 22% rostered

Another up-and-coming pitcher for Tampa Bay, Fleming has basically been having the polar opposite season of McClanahan. Fleming has a lower ERA (3.39) and WHIP (1.055) than McClanahan and is 6-4 on the season, but he's only managed a 15 percent strikeout rate over 66 1/3 innings of work. That's not too surprising as Fleming has never been a high strikeout guy. He has posted a career 17.9 percent strikeout rate over three years in the minors.

He's bounced back and forth between starting and pitching behind an opener this season. So far he's pitched slightly better behind an opener (4-1, 3.13 ERA, 15 K%) than when he starts the game (2-3, 3.63 ERA, 15.1 K%).

Bottom line: Fleming is currently out of action after being placed on the 10-day IL on Saturday with a calf strain, but when he's healthy, he's a good play in deeper mixed leagues and AL-only formats. He won't do much for strikeouts, but if you're looking for a guy to help boost your ERA and WHIP, he's a solid option.

Michael Wacha - 2% rostered

Wacha was a guy who I was buying into a little bit after his Spring Training performance, but outside of a nice stretch of three starts at the end of April, he's been a huge disappointment. He has spent most of the season bouncing back and forth between being an opener and pitching behind an opener, as he currently sports a 4.66 ERA and 1.303 WHIP with a 19.5 percent strikeout rate. His value has plummeted recently as he is averaging just under three innings per appearance over seven games in May and June. However, he could start to see more work following Glasnow's injury, as he tossed five shutout innings with seven strikeouts against the Red Sox on Thursday.

Bottom line: His last start is a positive sign and a step in the right direction, but until we see more from Wacha the only value he will have is as a potential streaming option in deep mixed and AL-only formats. 

Cracking The Rays' Closer Conundrum

Well, this is pretty easy. The Rays' closer right now is Diego Castillo, Pete Fairbanks, Castillo again, J.P. Feyereisen, Castillo for sure, nope it's Fairbanks, just kidding it's definitely Castillo now. Probably.

So if we're looking at the total number of saves this season, Castillo leads the way with 12 saves, followed by Fairbanks with three and Feyereisen with three as well. Plus Andrew Kittredge and Jeffrey Springs have scooped up two saves each, but they're mostly irrelevant in this conversation. Now let's look at who the Rays have turned to over their last 10 save opportunities, starting with the most recent save opportunity on Friday:

• Castillo - Save
• Fairbanks - Blown save
• Fairbanks - Save
• Castillo - Save
• Fairbanks - Save
• Castillo - Save
• Castillo - Save
• Feyereisen - Save
• Feyereisen - Save
• Feyereisen - Blown save

It's worth noting that those three save opportunities for Feyereisen are all from the end of May, so it appears for now at least it's back down to a two-person closer committee in Tampa Bay. Between the two, Castillo still remains the main guy to roster. He's getting more consistent save opportunities, and while his 3.38 ERA is higher than Fairbanks or Feyereisen, Castillo also owns the best strikeout rate at 35.3 percent.

Fairbanks is a good guy to roster in 14-team and deeper leagues where he'll give you some saves and help boost your rate stats. Feyereisen at one point looked like he was someone in contention to potentially take over the closer role, but since he hasn't had a save opportunity in the month of June, it appears that his value right now will be limited to only SV/HLD formats.

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