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Steve Janik's MLB betting picks for 4/9/2021. He breaks down today's MLB slate and recommends the top wagers and bets on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
Another 50/50 day on Thursday but it could've been worse. We got an excellent start from Corbin Burnes but then management pulled him after six scoreless and the Brewers bullpen blew it. However, pin it on the Milwaukee lineup for still not getting it together at the plate. Our second game between Kansas City and the Chicago White Sox had a bit of a scare for the first five innings under when Chicago plated four runs in the first two innings, but the starters settled in and we cashed, splitting the day record wise with a minimal loss, unit-wise.
I'm Steve Janik and I'm here to bring my insight, analysis and picks to help you make informed betting decisions this season. I've been writing up betting picks for RotoBaller since the 2019 NCAA football season and have covered both football and baseball. I am probably most known around these parts for my wild 2020 KBO gambling success when that was the only sport we had to bet on during the COVID shutdowns. I also handicapped some MLB last season, but it didn't end up very well, going 17-24-2 (-9u). Just like everything else with 2020, we want to put that in the past!
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell will be handling things over in our premium offering, while I will be carrying the free picks throughout the season with some help from Jamie Steed. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Friday, April 9. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
Moneyline Record: 1-1 (-.15u)
O/U Record: 1-1 (-.14u)
Runline Record: 2-1 (+1.3u)
First 5 Record: 2-1-2 (+.75u)
Prop Record: 0-1-1 (-1)
2021 Total Record: 6-5-3 (+.39u)
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
O/U: 8 | COL +125; SFG -148
COL: Austin Gomber; SFG: Johnny Cueto
Gomber came over the Nolan Arenado trade and it's a big pickup for the Rockies' rotation. The southpaw has some upside but his lack of control is a problem, holding an 11 BB% over 107 major league innings. He did an incredible job limiting hard contact in 2020, holding just a 2.7 Barrel %.
The Giants hosted one of the best lineups against LHP in 2020 and they're even stronger at home. Against southpaws last year, they posted a .369 wOBA, .251 ISO, and a 19 HR/FB%, which is impressive considering the size of Oracle Park. Evan Longoria has been off to a hot start with three homers, and he had trio of homers against LHP in the abbreviated 2020. Wilmer Flores and Mike Yastrzemski are healthy, so while the lineup isn't filled with studs, there are some options here for success against lefties.
The Giants start the home portion of their schedule Friday and after taking two of three against the Padres, this team is ready to roll into another divisional series. While Gomber is good at limiting contact, I'm rolling with the experienced home lineup with a recent history of success against lefties.
Pick: Giants Team Total Over 4.5 (-108, Draftkings) 1 Unit
San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers
O/U: 9 | SD -194, TEX +163
SD: Joe Musgrove; TEX: Kohei Arihara
Musgrove had a masterful performance in his Padres debut, going six scoreless innings with eight punch outs. The righty came over from the Pirates with big expectations after an impressive 2020, especially on Statcast's terms. Musgrove's K%, Whiff%, xBA, and average Exit Velocity were all in the top tier of the league. The Rangers have a lefty-heavy lineup, and while Big Joe struggles a little more with lefties, he still holds his own. His lineup behind him has taken their share of blows recently, most namely Fernando Tatis Jr., and while there are still plenty of solid bats in San Diego, they've been slow to get out of the gate with just 3.8 runs per game thus far.
We get to see the second start Arihara, who came over from Japan this year. His MLB debut wasn't anything special, going five frames, allowing three runs on six hits, including a homer, while striking out just one. It's going to take some time for teams to get a good scouting report on him, but if he continues to give up an average contact velocity of 93 mph, he won't be around for long. The Rangers' lineup is plenty dangerous, with Joey Gallo and Nate Lowe, but outside of that there's not much to be scared about as a pitcher. As a team, they carried a .283 wOBA with a .137 ISO against RHP at home in 2020.
Musgrove is as steady of an SP3 as it gets in the bigs and despite the amount of lefties in this Texas lineup, he has the stuff to hold them back. Even when he has to leave, the Padres have arguably the best bullpen in baseball. Arihara's first time, he was making his first start in America, so naturally the man may have been nervous. While there isn't much credible information on the right-hander yet, this Padres lineup is struggling enough for me to give the 28-year-old a chance to keep them in check.
Pick: Under 9 (+100, Barstool Sportsbook) 1 Unit
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