Give Corey Davis One More Chance

July 12, 2020

Tennessee Titans wide receiver Corey Davis has been considered a bust in fantasy football circles. Kev Mahserejian makes a compelling case to take a chance on Davis as a WR sleeper in 2020.

Tennessee Titans wide receiver, Corey Davis, is entering his fourth season in the NFL and already, many in the fantasy community are dumping their stock and refusing to buy at bottom-barrel prices. Davis is currently going off of the board in NFBC drafts around draft pick 200. Hardly anyone is reaching for him. Davis typically falls and gets drafted off of name-value rather than the belief of a bounce-back.

Draft capital after 3 years of disappointment means next to nothing. Pedigree is great at first but comes with an expiration date and Davis is close to his. It is possible that the Titans were just not a team/culture fit but there's no way to quantify this. With the evidence available, it is almost fair to say that Davis is going to be a bust. He won't be the first early-round receiver or the last to fall on his face.

However, the purpose of this piece is to give him just one more chance in drafts. You don't even have to reach for him, just take the minimally invasive plunge and draft him around ADP.

Prove-It Year

Before the deadline passed, the Titans declined Davis's fifth-year option which would have guaranteed control over him at a steep seven-figure price-tag. Their decision to do so creates a prove-it year mentality for Davis and although he likely would have performed well regardless, given the opportunity he has in front of him (at least relative to last year). This is just an extra chip on his shoulder.

Corey Davis had a peculiar volume fluctuation throughout his three-year NFL career. As a rookie, Davis was targeted 65 times in 11 games, roughly six per game. That season, he received 10 targets in Week 1, injured his hamstring Week 2 and then returned in the second half of the year, saw double-digit targets just once in nine regular-season games, and played poorly outside of a few games including a playoff game against New England.

As a sophomore, Davis was targeted 112 times, seven per game exactly, and caught 65 passes for 891 yards with four touchdowns. Not too impressive for a top-five pick but certainly showing improvement!

Davis came into 2019 with the expectations of the notorious third-year WR bump but fell extremely short. His targets fell back to the range of his rookie season with 69 total in 15 games, a meager four-and-a-half per game. On the surface, he did not see much of a bump with Tannehill whatsoever as both Tanny and Mariota targeted Davis similarly. More importantly, Davis was usurped on the depth chart by rookie phenom, A.J. Brown.

Look on the Bright Side

While Davis did not see much of a bump between his time with Marcus Mariota or Ryan Tannehill in 2019 he did see six targets per game in the three games he played with Tannehill before injuring his hip prior to Week 10. Not to use a small sample to dictate projections, but this share is reasonable enough to presume that he could see similar usage in a full, healthy season with his new QB.

If Davis were to be targeted in the ballpark of six times per game over a 16-game season, that's 96 targets by virtue of third-grade multiplication. If he were to hit roughly triple-digit targets, his current ADP in the late 'teens of 12-man drafts would seem ridiculous. At that point, the WRs typically drafted are either rookies or WR3s and 4s on their respective rosters. Hell, Davis is getting drafted 80 spots behind the top rookie WRs in the class. Given the learning curve and odd offseason, that could end up a huge mistake.

Davis is still a talented receiver, he just has not had the proper opportunity for an extended period of time and has dealt with nagging injuries in 2019 and as a rookie. The hamstring injury from 2017 has been mentioned along with his hip injury in 2019 but on top of those, Davis also came down with an ankle injury and late-season concussion. Not to say these are absolutely why he flopped but they certainly did not help.

Tennessee not drafting/signing any WRs this offseason shows that they, rightfully, still believe in him. A.J. Brown is absolutely the first-option on the offense and Jonnu Smith, their new starting TE with Delanie Walker out of town, will be plenty involved. Davis will get fed his fair share in a low-volume passing offense and have the chance to earn more targets as the season progresses. Most importantly, he will have the chance to build rapport with Ryan Tannehill and earn his trust to be thrown to even when not clearly open.

Davis will stay on the field plenty by virtue of his one clear, redeeming talent almost always on display, blocking. This fantastic thread by Titans Film Room on Twitter is all-encompassing enough to justify the claim.

In Closing

The cost of acquisition is so low on Davis, the clear WR2 in an average offense, that it would be unwise NOT to draft him. Rather than being someone who is reaching for that early defense or top kicker towards the lower-middle part of drafts, spend that ~180th or even ~170th pick on a player who is due for 100 or more targets in a fully healthy season.