RADIO
In a typical NFL season, by Week 5 fantasy owners and NFL fans generally know how their favorite NFL teams and players will perform on a week-to-week basis. 2017 has shown us that the more we see, the less we know with the shocking upsets of the Falcons and Patriots at home by large road underdogs. It seems more appropriate than ever the phrase that “any given Sunday” one team can defeat another under the right circumstances.
One area of hidden knowledge that most fantasy owners especially overlook is the play in the trenches. If a team missing their starting center for a week or if a defense missing one of its best interior run stoppers can swing real NFL games and fantasy matchups as well.
This week we have a California theme to Smashmouth, focusing on the LA Chargers and LA Rams. Fantasy owners are either delighted at their selection of Todd Gurley or disappointed in their first round pick of Melvin Gordon this past August. Are their offensive lines the reason behind why Gurley is flourishing and Gordon is floundering? Let’s dive into the film and see what the reason is for these offenses early season successes and failures.
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O-Line to Watch: Los Angeles Chargers
Once a team picked to contend in the AFC West, the LA Chargers appear to have fallen on hard times as they start the 2017 season. A couple of tough-luck losses put this team at the bottom of one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL. What’s disappointing fantasy owners more than just the Chargers poor record is the ineffectiveness of Melvin Gordon. Gordon himself is playing at a strong level, securing an 80.7 grade according to Pro Football Focus through the first four games of the season, but his offensive line is doing him no favors. According to Football Outsiders, the Chargers currently sit 30th in Adjusted Line Yards at 2.94 yards versus a league average of 3.96 yards per attempt. The also rank 30th as a unit when it comes to “Stuffed” percentage (where the running back is either tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage.
The biggest culprits of some of the running issues are the L.A. guards. Both Matt Slauson (LG) and Kenny Wiggins (RG) are grading below a 42, which is beyond a Poor rating, according to Pro Football Focus’ run grade metrics. This line is clearly missing rookies Forrest Lamp and Dan Feeney, both who were scheduled to start at the guard positions in 2017 prior to their injuries. Without the interior of the offensive line generating any type of push, Gordon will not have any room to generate any momentum to take on defenders or avoid them. Without that room to maneuver, Gordon only has a success rate of just 30% through four weeks. Just to put that in perspective, Kareem Hunt has a success rate of 57% on the season, meaning there are some glaring holes in this running game.
Even though there are major issues in the running game, all is not lost for the Chargers offense. The offensive line has done a fairly good job of pass protecting for the early part of this season. Slauson again is lagging behind the others with a grade of just 45.6 in pass protection, but three out of the other four members of the offensive line are grading out at a 60 or above, certainly passable by today’s NFL standard. Left Tackle Russell Okung has turned back the clock and looks like the bookend left tackle of years past grading out at 85.5 in pass protection so far. He and Wiggins (76.4 pass protection grade) are both performing quite well so far in protecting Philip Rivers. Rivers has been sacked just six times on 150 pass attempts this season, one of the best marks in the NFL. You can see in this first clip how the offensive is able to pick up a five man pressure from the Eagles in the second quarter and give Rivers enough time to step up and hit Keenan Allen on a crossing route.
In this next clip, the combination of the offensive line and tight ends provide Rivers enough time off play action to find Tyrell Williams streaking past the defense for a long completion and score. Even though the interior of the offensive line’s technique is not great, they are able to mash the Eagles pass rushers together to allow Rivers to step up.
Fantasy Impact
Stock Down: Melvin Gordon
This offensive line has major, major issues in the run game. The Chargers thought they were addressing those issues in the NFL Draft by selecting Lamp and Feeney, but Lamp’s season ending injury and Feeney’s inability to crack the starting lineup have curtailed that for what could be the entire 2017 season. Gordon should still see passing down work as he played on 42 of 57 snaps on Sunday, but his rushing totals will continue to in the RB2 range versus the weekly RB1 output from a season ago. He will certainly see a boost in PPR leagues going forward after catching 13 passes through four weeks, but his time as a top flight RB1 is gone. Look for Gordon to be a contributor to fantasy teams, not the centerpiece that he was drafted as to start the season.
Stock Up: Philip Rivers
Finally, Philip Rivers not only has his full complement of offensive weapons on the field (rookie receiver Mike Williams should be returning in a week or two), but he has an offensive line that, for the most part, can keep him upright. Rivers currently sits in the top half of the NFL in dropbacks with 156, and taking account the issues in the running game, should be a contender to be near the league lead in attempts for this season. Besides a Broncos matchup in Week 7, Rivers should be a QB1 going forward in all formats.
O-Line to Watch: Los Angeles Rams
What a difference a year makes. After an abysmal 2016, the Rams under new head coach, Sean McVay, are one of the most exciting offenses in the NFL, with one of the most exciting players, Todd Gurley. Gurley has been a dynamo in both the running and passing games, touching the ball a staggering 106 times in the first four weeks of the season. To the delight of fantasy owners, Gurley has seven touchdowns in those 106 touches, including three of the receiving variety. To quote a famous “Nature Boy,” “What’s causing all this?”
First, there is no doubt Sean McVay has improved the offensive scheme by leaps and bounds over Jeff Fisher in LA. That being said, one of the more glaring improvements has been on the offensive line. It cannot be oversold how much the addition of left tackle Andrew Whitworth means to this offense. Whitworth has picked up right where he left off in Cincinnati a season ago, grading out at 83.6 according to Pro Football Focus. Both of his run and pass game grades are over 80.0, a near elite level. The combination of Whitworth and left guard Roger Saffold has truly been impressive in the running game. You will see in this clip of a stretch run to the left in the third quarter against Dallas, Whitworth and Saffold, in combination with center John Sullivan, are able to create a seam for Gurley to easily see and move through as he gets to the second level of the defense untouched for a big gain.
It’s not just the left side of the offensive line that has been effective so far running the football. Even though right guard Jamon Brown and right tackle Rob Havenstein have been liabilities in pass protection (grading out 29.8 and 46.1 respectively), their run game production has been strong. On this toss play in the first quarter, Havenstein is able to get to the second level and impede the Cowboys linebacker so Todd Gurley can make a cut and gain extra yardage.
While the running game for the Rams has looked a lot better to start the season, the passing game will potentially continue to be hit and miss. Besides Whitworth, there is no other Rams starting offensive lineman graded above a 52 in pass blocking on the season. That is leading to a concentration on the short passing game, involving receivers like Todd Gurley and Cooper Kupp to consistently move the chains versus defenses rather than chunk plays over the top from Sammy Watkins unless they are off playaction. In this clip the line actually blocks well for Goff, giving him time on a 2nd and 10 against a four man rush. Goff is able to step up and fire a ball at Cooper Kupp to try and make third down much more manageable.
Fantasy Impact
Stock Up: Todd Gurley
Already near his all-time high in possible fantasy value, the number one players in fantasy is well within the realm of possibilities for Todd Gurley this season. He is involved in every aspect of the Rams’ offense from running the ball to receiving out of the backfield on a consistent basis. His 22 targets are tied for seventh at the running back position heading into Week 5. His offensive line has progressed to allow him to find creases and seems on both edges to start the season. If Gurley stays healthy, he’s looking like the RB1 we saw from 2015.
Stock Down: Sammy Watkins
This offense has demonstrated that they are looking to manage the risks that Jared Goff is going to take by targeting both Todd Gurley and Cooper Kupp heavily in the first few weeks. This has led to inconsistent usage for Watkins even though he has been on the field a majority of snaps. It’s hard to explain just two targets for Watkins in Week 4 after he has demonstrated that he is first and foremost healthy and also still the most talented receiver on the Rams. He will be hard to trust going forward, especially with more difficult matchups coming up starting this week against the Seahawks. He is nothing more than a high-variance WR3 going forward.
Top Five Offensive Lines
1) Pittsburgh Steelers
2) Atlanta Falcons
3) Washington Redskins
4) Philadelphia Eagles
5) Tennessee Titans
Bottom Five Offensive Lines
32) Arizona Cardinals
31) Miami Dolphins
30) New York Giants
29) Houston Texans
28) Cincinnati Bengals
For any questions about offensive line play in the NFL, feel free to contact me @TheRealHalupka on Twitter.
