June 10, 2017

Ben Ruppert investigates Week 10 trends in SP strikeout rates (K%). These MLB risers and fallers present buy and sell opportunities for your fantasy baseball team.

Missing bats is the #1 way a pitcher can control his own fate. If hitters make contact, the pitcher is largely at the mercy of the atmosphere, the weather, the ball park, the ability/work ethic of his fielders, and sometimes just sheer luck. This is ultimately why strikeouts are so important.

By looking at pitchers with positive trends in their strikeout rate in week 10, we can spot improving or declining pitchers. If the K-rate is improving, but the ERA and WHIP are less than ideal, it can present a buying opportunity. On the flip side, you may want to sell a pitcher with a declining K-rate, if he wasn't supposed to be that good to begin with.

This particular article will focus on two strikeout rate risers and two fallers, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat each pitcher.

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K-Rate Risers

CC Sabathia, New York Yankees

Season K%: 19%, Last 30 K%: 25%

Until last season, we haven’t seen CC Sabathia hold a sub-4.00 ERA since he did it from 2006-2012. His 3.91 ERA over 179.2 innings wasn’t a great season, but it was a step forward for the big man. This season his ERA sits at 3.66 over his first 12 starts, with a BABIP nearly identical to last season. He is fresh off of his best performance of the season, an eight-inning, five-hit shutout against the Red Sox with no walks and five strikeouts. He has thrown three straight quality starts, with 21 strikeouts over that span.

The biggest change Sabathia has made this season compared to last is the use of his slider. It is his most frequently thrown pitch this season at 30.8%, up from 24.3%. It was his most effective pitch last season, which could be why he’s using it more this season. It has held hitters to a .173 batting average against, with a 9.8% swinging strike rate. It has helped him keep his soft contact % at an above-average 20.4%, which has helped offset the small jump in hard hit %. Other than the slider usage, his decreased walk rate is also important to note. It is down from 8.5% to 7.7%. During his past five starts he has been especially effective, with a 1.11 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.

Outside of the increased slider use, there isn’t much different with Sabathia this season. His velocities and movements, contact rates, and BABIP are all right in line with his numbers from last season. If the only difference is he is using his best pitch more often, there’s no reason he can’t keep up his current production. Unfortunately, close to 200 innings of a 3.80 ERA isn’t much better than using that roster spot to stream a pitcher. Sabathia will be consistent, but if you can find a buyer I would see what you can get for him.

Verdict: Sell

Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee Brewers

Season K%: 24%, Last 30 K%: 29%

Nelson was a highly-touted prospect coming up in the Brewers system, and is finally realizing some of that potential this season. For his career he holds a 4.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, with a 10.5% K-BB%. Control had been one of his biggest issues dating back to his time in the minors, so it is no surprise it took him some extra time to adjust in the majors. This season he has made big strides in his game, with a 3.45 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over his first 12 starts of 2017. Is this just a flash in the pan for Nelson, or the beginning of something more?

When looking at his improved control, you instantly see the huge jump in K-BB%. In 2016 he was at 6.7%, compared to 18.4% so far in 2017. His strikeout and walk rates are both trending in the right direction thanks to his aggressive approach on the mound. Nelson is throwing more first-pitch strikes and more pitches in the zone than at any point in his career, and at the same time his SwStr% is up and his contact% is down this season. He has always had solid stuff, however has never been able to locate his pitches like he is this season. He has been throwing his four-seam fastball at the expense of his two-seam a bit this season, which has had an odd effect on his left/right handed splits. Usually, he is worse against left-handers, though this season he has held them to a .214/.267/.381 line compared to .313/.364/.450 for righties. If he can improve on his performance against right-handers and get it back to his career average (.254/.328/.378), he’ll be in even greater shape.

Over the past 30 days, Nelson has a 2.16 ERA, supported by a 2.28/2.52 FIP/xFIP. He pitches in the National League which is always a bonus, and at 28 years of age seems to have finally put things together. If anyone is selling Nelson right now, I’d be buying.

Verdict: Buy

K-Rate Fallers

Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates

Season K%: 20%, Last 30 K%: 16%

It’s been a tough and confusing season for Gerrit Cole. On the year he holds a 4.83 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, with a .276 BAA and a 20.3% K%. Those seem like the stats or a fifth starter somewhere, not those of a former number one overall pick. Cole began the year excellent, looking like he had gotten past last season's disappointments. However, his past four starts have flipped the script. Over his first nine starts he held a 2.84 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, compared to a 10.71 ERA and 2.28 WHIP over his past four starts.

When asked, Cole couldn’t even begin to tell you what he thinks is going on right now. His arm angle hasn’t changed, his pitch velocities and movements haven’t changed, and he isn’t even walking a bunch of guys during this rough stretch. It just seems like Cole is unable to execute on his pitches right now, and hitters are taking full advantage. When looking at his fastball and slider locations from his fist nine starts, versus his past four starts, you can see he’s catching much more of the plate more often now than he was before. (all graphs courtesy of Fangraphs)

Cole may be distracted by trade rumors or something else, but right now he is just off. Until he works things out, he is not startable in fantasy.

You should not be openly shopping Cole right now, given his value is at it’s lowest point. If you can find someone who is willing to pay close to full price I would be selling, given his inconsistencies. If you can’t sell for a fair value, hold and wait for the ship to eventually turn around.

Verdict: Hold/Sell

Jacob deGrom, New York Mets

Season K%: 30%, Last 30 K%: 25%

Another pitcher mired in a tough stretch right now is Mets ace Jacob deGrom. His season ERA is at 4.75, with a 1.44 WHIP and 3.75 BB/9. While his K% for the year is a career-high 29.9%, it has been down a bit over his past few starts. His past two outings have been especially bad; he lasted four innings in each start, allowing seven earned runs to the Milwaukee Brewers at home and eight earned runs to the Texas Rangers on the road. He allowed two HR in each game with a 3:2 K:BB. The young pitcher has never showed this poor level of control in his career leading up to this point, so what’s going on with him?

The first thing that jumps out at you is his poor luck; deGrom has a .350 BABIP this season, .050 points higher than his .299 career average. In his past two starts his BABIP was .483, though he didn’t help himself by walking six batters in those games. His HR/FB is double his career average at 20%, which should revert back to normal as the season goes on. His FIP/xFIP of 3.92/3.21 and his SIERA of 3.49 all indicate he has been pitching much better than his results show. His SwStr% is at a career-high 14.7%, and his contact % is at a career-low 69.1%. deGrom is certainly walking more hitters this season, which could be the product of a career-low 61.8% first-pitch strike %. His zone % is a career-high, which is how he has been piling up the strikeouts.

When you start walking guys on top of having poor luck on the mound, you’re going to have a bad time. That’s exactly what’s been happening to deGrom so far this season. He is an excellent buy low candidate right now. Once his luck turns around, he will quickly re-insert himself among the fantasy aces. Buy before he turns this around.

Verdict: Buy

More Risers and Fallers

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