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Kevin's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/30/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Bryce Harper, Michael Harris II and others!
Welcome to the weekend, RotoBallers! Some days it's a bit tough to find homer plays, and on others, the pitchers you love to fade just happen to be listed up and down the probable pitchers list. Today is one of those days as I'm seeing quite a few spots I'm really anxious to attack against guys I love to fade. You know I'm a sucker for that same game parlay energy too, and I've got another game that looks primed for the long ball on both sides of the plate. So let's get it.
In this article, I'll focus on five home run spots that I love for the upcoming slate of MLB games. One of them may even be Fernando Tatis Jr. to go deep for the first time this season! Just kidding. But make sure to check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, which could include more home run spots as well as some great strikeout picks.
Below, you'll be able to read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, May 30, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the time of publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get the most value on your home run wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/30/2026)
Bryce Harper OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+447, DraftKings)
If you keep giving me Roki Sasaki as an option to fade, then I'm just going to keep doing it. While Kyle Schwarber steals the headlines when you think of powerful lefties in the Phillies lineup it's actually Harper that I think has the better matchup.
The 33-year-old has been heating up over the past week, posting a 56.3% hard-hit rate to go along with an 18.8% barrel rate. That's added up to a 136 wRC+ with just one bomb. Feels like it should be a bit higher!
Part of that is influenced by a high ground-ball rate, but that should change against Sasaki. The Dodgers' righty is allowing just a 26.7% ground-ball rate against lefties at home. That's plenty of fly balls and line drives that should be coming off the Phillies' bats tonight.
Bryce Harper deposits one into the bullpen off of Paul Skenes 😮
He has now homered in back-to-back games! pic.twitter.com/tmSM0SebnW
— MLB (@MLB) May 17, 2026
Sasaki has gotten lit up at home as well. He's allowed five of his nine homers at Dodger Stadium over just 18 IP. Three have come off the bats of lefties, who have hit him for a .406 wOBA in LA. Harper just happens to be the Phillies' best road hitter (159 wRC+, seven homers) while also being their most effective lefty against righties (176 wRC+, ten homers).
He's also got fantastic numbers against two of Sasaki's three main pitches he'll attack lefties with. The four-seamer is the key pitch as it's Sasaki's most homer-prone pitch he throws (.423 xwOBA, 22-degree launch angle against lefties). Since he throws it 46.9% of the time, it makes him a bit more predictable. That's what I love to look for in a home run bet.
Harper's also been great against sliders, though that happens to be one of Sasaki's better weapons. I'll back the hitter in this scenario, though, as Harper is simply too hot for me to ignore. I have to back him against a pitcher I love to fade. Now onto another reliable fade a little further out east.
Michael Harris II OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+377, DraftKings)
The next fade here will be Brady Singer, who's gotten torched by left-handed bats this year. 10 of the 14 homers he's given up have been allowed to lefties, so we've got our choice of quite a few solid bats in Atlanta's lineup. Matt Olson is likely to be the most popular pick here, and why wouldn't he be? But I think there's a little more value with Harris.
For starters, he's been significantly better on the road than he has at home. He's hitting for a 203 wRC+ away from Truist Park with 10 homers. That jumps to a 225 wRC+ when facing righties on the road. That's thanks to a 41.0% fly-ball rate with a 32.0% HR/FB rate facing righties on the road. Incredibly solid numbers.
Michael Harris II hits his second home run in his last three games 💪 pic.twitter.com/SSUZfqmhNo
— MLB (@MLB) May 28, 2026
Over the last 14 days, he's posted a 52.3% hard-hit rate to go along with a 15.9% barrel rate, adding up to six homers. That's quite a bit of consistency and something I love to see in a stadium that's usually very friendly to hitters.
Back to Singer, he becomes a reliable fade because his pitch mix is all too predictable. He mainly features a sinker/slider combo against lefties, which makes up 80% of the pitches he throws. That makes it that much easier for Harris to dial in on which pitches to attack. The slider is the pitch we're really looking to take advantage of here, as Harris has hit five of his 13 homers against sliders, and Singer's prone to the long ball with it.
The Braves should have themselves a day in Cincinnati, and I'm expecting Harris to do some damage. He's probably someone I'll back with an over 1.5 hits bet as well (+182 on DraftKings). The matchup is too juicy, and I've got to back him here.
Another reason I think he'll go deep? He should have on Friday night, but Blake Dunn robbed him in his first AB. He's not going to want that to happen again, so he's certainly going to have some extra motivation. These are the type of analytics you expect to see in these articles, I know it.
As for the Same Game Parlay energy I was talking about earlier? That's here in Cincinnati, so let's move on to the next HR bet we'll have at Great American Ball Park.
