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Kevin's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/2/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Aaron Judge, Nick Kurtz, and more!
Welcome to another Saturday, RotoBallers! With April baseball finally in the rearview mirror, that means the trends we're seeing are starting to get a lot clearer. There are a lot more data points on pitchers as well, and that's going to help clear up who's a great target to fade and who we should avoid. As much as I'd love to back my guy James Wood against Kyle Harrison, the early-season trends are telling us, "Hey, maybe another time!" So let's aim for some other options that are just as appealing.
It's a full slate with a few appealing matchups. We're going to be backing a couple of hot hitters and a couple that look to be due. Let's hope the gambling gods are on our side today and that they love the long ball just as much as we do.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, May 2, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/2/2026)
Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+250, Bet365)
Is this the sexiest play I'm ever going to recommend to you? Absolutely not. But I love the matchup Judge has against Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish. There are no secrets here in this AL East clash, as they've faced each other 14 times over the years.
So far, Judge hasn't been able to smash a long ball against him, but he's facing a different Bradish today. This version of Bradish has struggled against righties and is seeing hitters barrel him up at the highest mark of his career, with a 10.2% mark.
For Judge, he's posting a 60.0% hard hit rate to go along with a 24.0% barrel rate over the last two weeks. Three of his 12 homers have come since Sunday, and he looks primed to add another on Saturday.
Aaron Judge is tied again for the MLB lead with home run No. 12! pic.twitter.com/EuYYSOGiXT
— MLB (@MLB) April 29, 2026
The pitch mix Bradish will attack him with will mainly be a mix of sinkers and sliders. Both have an xwOBA over .400 against righties, with the slider having an average launch angle of 20 degrees. Judge has been masterful against sinkers and is likely to see more sliders. He's hit two of his 12 homers against sliders this season and did well against them last season.
If he veers from either the sinker or slider, then he's going to pivot to either a four-seamer or a curveball, both of which Judge is absolutely mashing.
The only detractor I see here is Bradish having control issues as he's allowed three or more walks in five of his six starts. However, there's also an opportunity here to pair a Judge HR with a Judge BB and get a little more juice if the current odds aren't appealing.
Either way, let's ride the hot streak against a pitcher who's just not the same pitcher he was a few seasons ago. Now onto Sacramento.
Nick Kurtz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+240, BetMGM)
Speaking of hitters heating up, Kurtz is back to mashing. He's posting a 57.1% hard hit rate to go along with a 25.0% barrel rate over the last two weeks. That's added up to four homers in that span.
He gets a matchup against Guardians' starter Slade Cecconi. He's been very prone to the home run lately, and that's just a perfect match with the hitting environment in Sacramento. His 12.2% barrel rate, which ranks in the 18th percentile, looks very appealing here.
Nick Kurtz ties the game with an absolute BLAST!
115.3 MPH off the bat 😳 pic.twitter.com/vexi4yQzqL
— MLB (@MLB) April 18, 2026
For Kurtz, it feels like he's been a bit unlucky with the longball at home. He's posting a fly-ball rate of 48.1% at home, with that number jumping up to 56.3% against righties specifically. Something's got to give here, right?
Cecconi has also struggled on the road. Four of his six starts have come on the road, and he's posting a 6.98 ERA in those games. Lefties are hitting him for a .395 wOBA on the road, so they're getting to him effectively. He's been decent at keeping the ball on the ground, but the HR/FB rate is at 30.0%. If it gets in the air, there's a solid shot it's leaving the yard.
Kurtz should expect to face a mix of four-seamers, curves, and cutters from Cecconi. All of those carry an xwOBA of .349 or higher when the Guardians' starter is facing lefties. Kurtz has mashed each of those three pitches this season, though he's seen much fewer curves and cutters than he has four-seamers.
But the numbers last season show they're all strengths of his, especially the four-seamer. Since Cecconi throws this to lefties 44.1% of the time, we should expect to see a decent amount of them thrown to Kurtz. If not, then we'll aim to have a cutter leave the yard as lefties are posting a 22-degree launch angle against Cecconi's cutter.
All of this seems very favorable for Kurtz. Let's hope he continues his hot streak and bashes one over the right field wall. Fade Slade! (That's kind of fun to say, to be honest)
