2026 Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings: 5 Overvalued, Undervalued Players

April 22, 2026

Matt's biggest overvalued and undervalued fantasy football players in rookie rankings ahead of 2026. Which players are sleepers at their ADPs and who may bust?

With the NFL Draft now right around the corner, fantasy football managers should expect the noise to get louder and louder. However, some of what you are hearing is valuable, and the rest is just noise.

NFL teams will begin leaking certain information, agents will leak information regarding their clients, and we, the fantasy football enthusiasts, will have to decipher fact from fiction in an effort to put ourselves in the best position to get value on draft day.

For a deeper dive into dynasty strategy, rankings, and trade tactics, check out our complete Dynasty Fantasy Football Guide.

Overvalued: Denzel Boston, WR, Washington

Outside of Makai Lemon, this year's class at the wide receiver position really becomes a game of fantasy roulette. Lemon is the only receiver projected to be selected within the first three rounds who averaged three or more yards per route run against zone defense. Why is this important? I’m glad you asked.

Since 2019, wide receivers such as Denzel Boston who averaged 2.25 or fewer yards per route run and who are selected inside those first three rounds haven’t exactly given fantasy managers the return on their investment that they would hope for.

We are talking about a list that includes N'Keal Harry, Chase Claypool, KJ Hamler, Jalen Reagor, Jonathan Mingo, Van Jefferson, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Xavier Legette. The most productive pass-catcher within this group during this period has been Brian Thomas Jr., and we aren’t sure what to do with him after two seasons.

​Boston has the look of a Mike Evans-type outside receiver, checking in at 6-foot-4 and 209 lbs. However, the consensus varies on Boston, with the comparisons ranging from Keon Coleman to Michael Pittman Jr. to Courtland Sutton; that’s too much variation when locking in that first-round rookie selection.

​While the former Husky runs a respectable 4.52 and has some of the surest hands amongst his peers, there are concerns about his route development in college and how it translates in the pros, as well as his lack of yards after the catch.

There are several ways to create separation in the NFL. Size is something Boston certainly has, but it also makes him a one-dimensional target entering the NFL.

​If Boston can develop as a route runner, he has the opportunity to flip the narrative. Still, right now, not only is Boston overvalued, but much of the 2026 wide receiver class falls into that category.

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Undervalued: Cole Payton, QB, North Dakota State

When the FCS trailblazers before you are Carson Wentz and Trey Lance, expectations become much lower. Drafting a quarterback from North Dakota State is a faux pas, considering how effective Bison quarterbacks have performed in the NFL in recent memory. Drafting a North Dakota State quarterback is treated the same as drafting a wide receiver from Baylor.

Everything you just read basically says to fade Cole Payton, and that’s exactly why he is undervalued. Look, this quarterback class is not strong. There’s Fernando Mendoza, then you have Ty Simpson and Garrett Nussmeier, and even there, people aren’t sold on either Simpson or Nussmeier being valued that high.

In fantasy, you need to find every advantage you possibly can, especially when you get into the third round of those rookie drafts. Payton is a quarterback who possesses the Konami code, having rushed for 13 touchdowns in two of his last three seasons and finishing with a 32% scramble rate under pressure throughout his collegiate career, which is higher than Jayden Daniels' and Malik Willis' rates dating back to 2017.

On Payton's pro day, he checked plenty of boxes. Scouts were well aware of his 4.56 40 speed, but completing 52 of 54 passes and making all the throws needed at the next level helped. The 6-foot-3, 232-pound signal-caller is coming off a season in which he completed 72% of his passes for 2,719 yards and 16 touchdowns against just four interceptions.

6⃣1⃣ yards. To. The. House.

Cole Payton is electric. pic.twitter.com/QqOnO3RHwX

— NDSU Football (@NDSUfootball) September 9, 2023

​Many will cite the lack of competition, but all the tools and traits are there. If Payton lands in the right spot, he will make one GM look very smart.

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Overvalued: Emmett Johnson, RB, Nebraska

Emmett Johnson is one of the more polarizing backs in this year's draft class when it comes to evaluating how his game translates at the next level. There are plenty of highlights in which he makes defenders miss and pulls away, yet the athletic testing scores tell a different story.

Johnson’s 4.53 40 time was in the 54th percentile, while his speed score fell into the modest 22nd percentile. This is where fantasy managers must distinguish between measurable and functional when breaking down Johnson, as they did with Bucky Irving a couple of years back. While Johnson is more elusive than he is fast, he’s not on the same level as Irving, at least not yet.

Several other red flags were raised as Johnson was a one-year starter at Nebraska, whose vision and contact balance raised questions throughout his tenure. Sure, he could be the next Irving, or he could very easily be the next Woody Marks. Johnson is coming off a 1,800-yard season in which he totaled 15 touchdowns, so the production is there in a small sample size.

Johnson could live up to his projected draft capital, but he will need to secure a full-time role. Considering the porous state of his pass protection, Johnson is best served as a change-of-pace rotational, optional, or third-down specialist early on.

Bottom line, you can’t draft Johnson in the first round of fantasy rookie drafts, but if he slides to the middle of the second, then the risk is negated.

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Undervalued: Mike Washington Jr., RB, Arkansas

Mike Washington Jr. is built differently. At 6-foot-1, 223 lbs, Washington can run through defenders or run past defenders thanks to his 4.30 40-yard time. Either way, he is going to create problems for opposing defenses on Sundays.

Mike Washington Jr. is visiting with the #Packers sometime over the next couple weeks.

One of my favorite RBs in this year's class.pic.twitter.com/T1YjXNw7fP https://t.co/2m6dHi12MN

— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) April 3, 2026

Last season, Washington averaged 6.4 yards per carry and topped 1,000 yards rushing, which is even more impressive considering that the Arkansas offensive line didn’t provide much help. Washington also showed that, despite being a big back, he can contribute in the passing game, catching 28 balls for 226 yards.

Washington is an athletic freak, checking in with elite status in composite explosive and speed grades thanks to his impressive 39” vertical and that aforementioned 40-yard time. We are talking about a running back who scored an unofficial 9.88 Relative Athletic Score, ranking 28th out of 2,305 running backs charted since 1987.

Unlike Johnson, Washington should find himself being trusted early on by his coaches thanks to his ability in pass protection. Given his size, Washington holds up well against edge defenders and blitzing linebackers, often becoming the hammer rather than the nail. Outside the Notre Dame duo of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, Washington may be the next best back in this class.

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Value Pick: Jeff Caldwell, WR, Cincinnati

When your draft rolls around, there is no better feeling than grabbing a player late in the draft who oozes potential. Last season, for many, that guy was Isaac TeSlaa, who checked in at 6-foot-4, 214 lbs.

Thanks to a 4.43 40, a 39.5” vertical jump, and 4.05 shuttle, he scored a 9.92 Relative Athletic Score, propelling him to the Detroit Lions in the third round of last April's draft. In his rookie season, TeSlaa only caught 16 passes; however, six of them resulted in touchdowns.

Jeff Caldwell is a WR prospect in the 2026 draft class. He scored an unofficial 10.00 RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 2 out of 3830 WR from 1987 to 2026.

Pending bench and agilities, splits projected.https://t.co/Vd4HAcnEyd pic.twitter.com/3oKQNat7sK

— RAS.football (@MathBomb) February 28, 2026

In 2026, the player destined to follow a similar trajectory is Cincinnati’s Jeff Caldwell, who may be even more of a freak than TeSlaa was coming out of college.

At 6-foot-5, 216 lbs, Caldwell is already an imposing red-zone threat, but here’s where it gets fun. Caldwell scored a 10.00 Relative Athletic Score, placing second among 4,190 wide receivers since 1987. While there was no agility testing, the 4.31 40 and 42” vertical were more than enough to secure his status.

Caldwell can outrun opposing corners, and if the ball is put up there, his impressive catch radius makes it impossible for defenders to make a play on the ball.

Among the receivers available in the 2026 NFL Draft, Caldwell’s 99.9 SPORQ score (90th percentile) was the highest amongst his peers. Historically speaking, receivers hitting that mark have a 12.4% rate of becoming a WR1 within the first three seasons.

Cadlwell did struggle with some drops and played against lesser competition, but you are looking at a receiver who is currently being selected as the 24th to 28th pass-catcher off the board in rookie drafts. Plenty of upside to work with when selecting Caldwell with minimal risk, considering where he is currently being drafted. 

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