RADIO
Dan's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 14 of 2025. He looks at potential warning signals from DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, Isiah Pacheco, Tyler Allgeier, and Oronde Gadsden II.
Hello again, Roto Ballers, and welcome to the Week 14 edition of Warning Signals. This is the final week of the fantasy football season before the playoffs begin, meaning this weekend is do-or-die for many of us. As always, I’m looking at troubling trends, injury news, and depth chart shakeups that could spell trouble for potential starters and highlighting some of them here.
Once reliable fantasy studs, DK Metcalf and DJ Moore have been anything but this season. Isiah Pacheco made his return last week, but gave us little reason to trust him this time around. Tyler Allgeier's boom-bust cycle is not worth gambling on with a daunting matchup. In tight end territory, streamers considering Oronde Gadsden II should look elsewhere.
Whether your season is at stake or you are jockeying for playoff seeding, it is time to take an honest look at your roster. Heed the Warning Signals out there so you can avoid the busts that will do more to hurt than help you. Good luck in Week 14, and I’ll see you in the playoffs!
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DK Metcalf, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Metcalf is suffering through one of the least productive stretches of his career. Over the Steelers' last five games, Metcalf has 32 targets but has averaged 3.6 catches and 28.8 receiving yards per game. Metcalf’s 39.6 PPR points going back to Week 9 are the fewest he has had in a five-game stretch since Weeks 10-14 of the 2021 season.
Metcalf's last receiving touchdown came in Week 8. That was also the last time he logged 50 or more receiving yards, a threshold he has crossed in only four games this season. Perhaps this shouldn’t be surprising given quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ tendencies this season. Rodgers has the lowest air yards per attempt (5.8) of any quarterback in the league, and has the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (189.6), beating only Dillon Gabriel, Justin Fields, and Jaxson Dart.
On tap for Pittsburgh is a meeting with its AFC North rival Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are among the most frequent defenses to employ man coverage, against which Metcalf has not fared well in 2025. Metcalf has seen his target share shrink from 23.4% against zone schemes to 15.8% against man. Likewise, his .51 fantasy points per route run against zone is cut in half to .24 against zone.
Even as his team’s alpha receiver, Metcalf is not a lock for meaningful fantasy production. With a fantasy season potentially on the line, I wouldn’t want to count on him to deliver in Week 14.
Bills CB Christian Benford pitched a shutout against DK Metcalf in man coverage
10 man coverage reps. 0 completions allowed pic.twitter.com/Uot2topJGB
— Carl Jones (@Jones11_) December 1, 2025
DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
Injury Update: Rome Odunze has been ruled OUT
Moore is another wide receiver who, like Metcalf, has had a sudden fall from grace in 2025. Despite being a part of a Ben Johnson offense that leads the league in plays per game and ranks in the top 10 in total yards and touchdowns, Moore is on pace for his least productive season since his rookie year.
Aside from Rome Odunze (foot), none of the Bears’ receivers have been on the field for more snaps than Moore, yet Moore has never led the team in targets. Over the last three games, Moore has eight catches for 99 receiving yards. Moore did have a spike week in Week 12 thanks to two touchdown catches, but those were his first receiving touchdowns since Week 3.
In 12 games played, Moore has not had more than five receptions, has eight games with 46 receiving yards or fewer, and his season-high in receiving yards is 73. Simply put, he is not a priority in the Bears' offense. With Odunze taking up the WR1 mantle in Chicago and rookies Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland coming along in the back half of the season, there is no telling who will be featured in their passing attack on a week-to-week basis.
Moore and the Bears get a tricky matchup against the Packers in Week 14. Yes, Jameson Williams torched Green Bay on Thanksgiving with a 7-144-1 line, but that was just the second 100-yard day the Packers allowed to a wide receiver in 2025. Even with Williams’ monster game, over the last four weeks, Green Bay has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.
With so many weapons at the Bears’ disposal and Green Bay’s defense allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game when playing at home, starting Moore in Week 14 is a risky endeavor.
Luther Burden III Is a Strong Addition in a Growing Role https://t.co/Xpc4l9fEeQ
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) December 2, 2025
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
After missing three games due to injury, Pacheco made his return to action when the Chiefs linked up with the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day. While Pacheco was absent, Kareem Hunt stepped up to serve as the lead back, scoring a touchdown in each game and averaging 70.7 rushing yards.
Based on last week’s utilization of the backs, the lead role is Hunt’s to keep. Hunt was on the field for more than twice the snaps that Pacheco saw (42 to 20) and dominated the opportunity share with 15 total touches to Pacheco’s five.
It is possible that Kansas City was playing it safe and easing Pacheco back into his duties. Even if that were the case and the Chiefs reverted to the usage prior to Pacheco’s injury, Hunt would still be in play for goalline work, robbing Pacheco of those valuable opportunities.
Pacheco has yet to top 60 rushing yards in a game this season, has one rushing touchdown, and was averaging just 9.8 carries per game before his injury. He won’t be a threat to set any season highs against the Chiefs' next opponent. The Houston Texans are allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game to opposing running backs (74.4) and rank in the bottom ten defenses in fantasy points allowed per game to the position.
Making matters worse, Kansas City's offensive line depth took a major hit in their game against the Cowboys. Starting tackle Josh Simmons (wrist) suffered a fractured and dislocated wrist in the game and is now on injured reserve. Tackle Jawaan Taylor (knee, triceps) and guard Trey Smith (ankle) were dealt injuries as well, putting their availability for Week 14 into question.
This was the last play for Josh Simmons, who has now been downgraded to out with a wrist injury.
Tough to tell when he actually got injured during this sequence.
pic.twitter.com/p5BeNnqc6q— Matt Foster (@MattFosterTV) November 28, 2025
Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Four teams are on bye this week – San Francisco, New England, Carolina, and the New York Giants. This robs fantasy football managers of the running backs of those teams, including Christian McCaffrey, TreVeyon Henderson, and Rico Dowdle, among others. Concerned managers will be giving a hard look at the waiver wire, so I wanted to issue a quick word of warning regarding Allgeier, who is available in about 60% of Yahoo leagues.
Allgeier has managed to punch in eight rushing touchdowns so far in 2025, despite seeing limited action behind Bijan Robinson. Fantasy managers looking to fill an RB slot might think now is as good a time as any to roll the dice on Allgeier hitting paydirt for the ninth time, but like I say so often in this column: matchups matter.
On Sunday, Atlanta will host the Seattle Seahawks, which boasts one of the league’s best defenses against the run or otherwise. Seattle is holding opposing running backs to a league-best 3.51 yards per carry and has given up the second-fewest total rushing yards and seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Allgeier is as touchdown-dependent as players come, and this is a bad week to depend on a score from him.
Oronde Gadsden II, TE, Los Angeles Chargers
Gadsden had a nice little run back in Weeks 6 to 9, putting up a line of 24-377-2 on 27 targets. His breakout made him look like a potential league winner and one of the most sought-after waiver wire adds. Unfortunately, the rookie’s production has regressed since then, dwindling to an average output of two catches and 27 yards per game in the Chargers' last three games.
Gadsden is now faced with a double whammy that threatens his Week 14 production. For starters, he will be up against the Eagles, who have been among the league’s most effective defenses at negating opposing tight ends. Philly has offered the second-fewest receiving yards and fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position in 2025.
Gadsden’s potential is also tied to the health of Justin Herbert (hand). Herbert underwent surgery on December 1 to repair fractures in his non-throwing hand. The quarterback’s status depends on how quickly the swelling in his hand goes down.
With the Chargers playing Philadelphia on Monday night, there is an extra day for Herbert to recuperate. However, if he can’t go, then the Chargers will turn to backup Trey Lance and feature a more run-heavy approach. Playing in the last game of the week means there is no fallback option if Herbert can’t go. This is not a risk I want to take at the end of the week, which could determine whether or not my season ends or continues.
Justin Herbert Had Plate and Multiple Screws Put in Left Hand https://t.co/swG10kH8r2
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) December 4, 2025
Did you pick up on any Warning Signals yourself while preparing for Week 13? Are you looking for suggestions on who to pivot to for your upcoming matchups? Reach out on X (@danifestmestiny) or Bluesky (@danifestmestiny.bsky.social), and we can work on getting you set up to win your week!
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