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Dave's Week 14 NFL player props picks and anytime touchdown wagers. Get his best Week 14 NFL player prop bets with odds, expert analysis and predictions. Top weekly NFL prop bets and winning picks.
As we flip the calendar to December, the NFL season is starting to wind down. There are just five weeks left in the regular season. It feels hard to believe we've almost reached the end, but I guess time flies when you're grinding out prop bets every week.
While the year is almost over, there's still plenty of time for casual and avid bettors to turn a profit. So, let's not waste any time and get into the good stuff.
Make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Let's dive into some of my favorite player props for Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season.
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Week 14 Passing Prop Bets
Joe Burrow UNDER 256.5 Passing Yards (-113) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .57 Units to Win .5 Units
Burrow returned to the Bengals' lineup last week after missing nine games with a turf toe injury. He threw for 261 passing yards, two touchdowns, and Cincinnati picked up a 32-14 victory over the Baltimore Ravens.
Ja'Marr Chase 67-YARD TD!#CINvsBAL on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/WSWDdsiGZP— NFL (@NFL) November 8, 2024
However, Burrow completed only 52% of his passes and ranked 32nd in PFF's adjusted completion percentage in Week 13. This suggests he's still shaking off the rust after missing more than half the season.
Buffalo's defense has had its struggles this year, but it's done a fairly good job against opposing quarterbacks. The Bills have allowed the fewest passing yards to quarterbacks this year, and rank 10th in FTN Fantasy's defensive passing DVOA. Buffalo also ranks seventh in PFF's pass-rushing grade, and that could be problematic for a Bengals offensive line that ranks 29th in PFF's pass-blocking grade.
Cincinnati could also lean on its ground game here and attack a Bills defense that allows 141.3 rushing yards per game, which is the third-most in the league. That would also mean fewer opportunities for Burrow to air it out.
Even though his Week 13 stat line looked good, I'm not ready to fully back Burrow just yet, as several factors are working against him. Burrow could be under duress for most of this game, and that feels like a problem for a quarterback still recovering from a serious case of turf toe.
This line feels a little inflated, and this is not as great a match-up on paper as it might initially seem. Burrow is live to throw a couple of touchdowns in this game, but his yardage total is a bit too high.
Baker Mayfield UNDER 220.5 Passing Yards (-115) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .46 Units to Win .4 Units
Mayfield's play has fallen off during the second half of the year. Some of that is due to several of the Buccaneers' top pass-catchers missing time with injuries, and some of it can also be blamed on a few injuries Mayfield is dealing with. However, the reality is that he's just not playing at the same level he was earlier in the season.
Tampa Bay now takes on a New Orleans Saints team that sits 2-10 on the year. While this might look like a smash spot for Mayfield, that may not actually be the case, as New Orleans has allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season.
With Mayfield still banged up and nursing a shoulder injury, Tampa Bay may lean heavily into its ground attack and use running backs Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, and Sean Tucker to pick up a victory here. That approach makes sense and would minimize the amount of potential hits Mayfield could take in this game. This would allow their franchise quarterback more time to heal up for two huge games against the Carolina Panthers that loom just around the corner.
The Saints have allowed the 11th-most touchdown passes this year, so if you like Mayfield in this game, his touchdown props would be the preferred way to play him. I will be fading his yardage props, as I believe Buccaneers' head coach Todd Bowles will rely on his defense and running game to get the job done here.
Daniel JonesUNDER 241.5 Passing Yards (-115) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1 Unit
Jones is dealing with a fractured fibula, and his play is starting to come back down to earth following his hot start. The Jacksonville defense has had some issues against opposing passing games this season, but Jones' play lately has me skeptical he can take advantage of this matchup.
I expect the Jaguars to do everything within their power to limit Jonathan Taylor and force Jones to beat them with his arm. I don't think he'll be up to the task and will be fading him this weekend.
Week 14 Rushing Prop Bets
Quinshon Judkins OVER 21.5 Rush Attempts (+108) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .3 Units to Win .32 Units
The Browns are listed as 4-point favorites over the Tennessee Titans this weekend. It's a winnable game for Cleveland, and we should see their defense give Cameron Ward and the Tennessee offense fits all day.
That should mean plenty of rushing opportunities for Judkins. The Titans also have one of the worst run defenses in football. Tennessee ranks 27th in defensive rushing DVOA. So this weakness lines up perfectly with what Cleveland wants to do on offense.
The only way I don't see this prop hitting is if the Titans run away with this game. I don't see that happening here, so this is basically a health bet.
Kenneth Walker III OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards (-114) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk 1.14 Units to Win 1 Unit
The Seahawks take on an Atlanta Falcons team this week that's lost five of its last six games and has seen its season spiral out of control. Atlanta's run defense has collapsed over this stretch, and the team currently sits 23rd in PFF's rushing defense grade and allows the eighth-most rushing yards per game.
Walker's usage remains frustrating, but he's getting enough volume to surpass this total. Seattle is also listed as a 7-point favorite this weekend. The Seahawks should be playing with a lead for most of this game, and that should ensure Walker sees enough volume for us to hit this bet.
Throw in the fact that Atlanta has allowed the sixth-most explosive rushing yards since Week 9 per Fantasy Points Data Suite, and this looks like a good time for Walker to post a respectable rushing total.
Jonathan Taylor UNDER 17.5 Yards Longest Rush (-110) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .55 Units to Win .5 Units
Since the team's Week 11 bye, Taylor has not posted a 100-yard rushing game and is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry. It should come as no surprise that the Colts are winless over that span.
Things will not get easier this weekend, as Indianapolis faces a Jacksonville Jaguars team that ranks seventh in PFF's rushing defense grade and ninth in defensive rushing DVOA. Jacksonville has also allowed the fewest explosive rushing yards in the league.
It's for this reason that I prefer to play the under on Taylor's longest rush prop as opposed to his yardage total. Taylor should see plenty of volume in this game, and that gives him a good shot at surpassing his yardage prop. However, explosive plays will be an issue for him here.
It's not fun fading Taylor, but this is another good spot to do so, and I expect the Jacksonville defense will do everything they can to limit explosive running plays and force quarterback Daniel Jones to beat them with his arm.
Week 14 Receiving Prop Bets
Dalton Kincaid OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
It looks as though Kincaid will return to the Bills' lineup after missing the last three games with a hamstring injury. It could not come at a better time as he draws an ideal matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Cincinnati has been one of the worst teams in the league against tight ends this season. The Bengals rank 30th in DVOA against the position and allow an average of 94.1 receiving yards per game to tight ends. This looks like a fantastic spot for Kincaid to post a spike week, and he is a real threat to crack triple digits even in a limited role.
I'm expecting a huge game from Kincaid this weekend and would play this prop up to 45.5 for a full unit. This is a spot where I will be playing some of his alternate yardage props, too.
DeVonta Smith UNDER 4.5 Receptions (+110) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk 1 Units to Win 1.1 Units
The Eagles' offense is a complete mess right now. Offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo does not seem up for the job, and quarterback Jalen Hurts is not playing well either.
.@ChicagoBears @Eagles this offense is offensive in so many ways; but in this "copy cat league" expect more teams to go "Blitz Zero" playing a Shell Coverage behind it. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/v39cuzB3BT
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) November 29, 2025
It has led to Smith having a very inconsistent season. He has four games with 80+ receiving yards, including two 100-yard performances. However, he's also been held under 60 receiving yards six times this year.
Unfortunately, this week doesn't look like the time we will see Smith pop for a huge game. The Los Angeles Chargers have been very stingy against wide receivers in 2o25. Los Angeles has allowed the third-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers this season. The Chargers also rank fifth in DVOA against opposing teams' WR2s and allow an average of 32.2 receiving yards per game to the position.
Given the state of the Philadelphia offense and the Los Angeles offensive line, this game has the potential to morph into a low-scoring defensive contest. That would mean bad news for Smith's outlook.
This just feels like a spot where there are more ways Smith goes under this total as opposed to surpassing it, so that means the play is to bet the under.
Week 14 Anytime Touchdown Bets
Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown (+220) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.2 Units
I previously outlined my rationale for betting the over on Kincaid's yardage prop, but I'll take it one step further here. The Bengals have allowed a league-high 13 touchdowns to tight ends this season, which is almost double the next closest team.
That's pretty much all there is to this play. The Bengals' defense stinks against tight ends, and these are great odds to take a chance on Kincaid finding the endzone. It's also not the worst idea to sprinkle a bit on Kincaid's teammate, Dawson Knox, to score at +300 odds.
Dontayvion Wicks Anytime Touchdown (+470) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .3 Units to Win 1.4 Units
Wicks is coming off a monster game on Thanksgiving, where he posted a 6-94-2 line on seven targets against the Detroit Lions. Green Bay now takes on a Chicago Bears defense that's allowed the third-most touchdowns to wide receivers this year.
Quarterback Jordan Love is playing well, and that should continue against a Bears defense that ranks 23rd in defensive passing DVOA. Even though the Chicago secondary is starting to get healthy, this looks like another spot where Wicks could find the endzone.
Brian Thomas Jr. Anytime Touchdown (+250) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .4 Units to Win 1 Unit
Thomas' sophomore season has been incredibly disappointing. He has struggled with injuries, and his unwillingness to run routes over the middle of the field has really hindered his performance. However, this could be a spot where he pops for a splash play and finds the endzone, as the Colts currently rank 29th in PFF's pass coverage grade.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence's inconsistent play could be an issue for Thomas here, but Indianapolis will also be without cornerback Sauce Gardner. That will help Lawrence's outlook and also help Thomas' odds of scoring.
I'll take a flyer on him doing just that and think these odds justify a small wager.
Long Shot Props & Value Plays
Check back later for several long shot plays!
Weather & Surface Impact Analysis
Severe weather conditions can have a major impact on NFL games. It can influence play-calling and thus affect props totals.
Just make sure you keep an eye on the forecasts as we get closer to game time.
Week 14 Props Summary
Here's a quick, handy recap of all the props I recommended in this article in one place!
- Joe Burrow UNDER 256.5 Passing Yards (-113) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Baker Mayfield UNDER 220.5 Passing Yards (-115) BetMGM Sportsbook
- Daniel Jones UNDER 241.5 Passing Yards (-115) BetMGM Sportsbook
- Quinshon Judkins OVER 21.5 Rush Attempts (+108) FanDuel Sportsbook
- Kenneth Walker III OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards (-114) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Jonathan Taylor UNDER 17.5 Yards Longest Rush (-110) BetMGM Sportsbook
- Dalton Kincaid OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- DeVonta Smith UNDER 4.5 Receptions (+110) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown (+220) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Dontayvion Wicks Anytime Touchdown (+470) FanDuel Sportsbook
- Brian Thomas Jr. Anytime Touchdown (+250) BetMGM Sportsbook
Thanks for reading, and make sure you check back again before Sunday for updated info and more betting content from RotoBaller!
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