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John Laghezza's fantasy football RB/WR breakouts watch for Week 7 based on snap count risers/fallers in 2025. Whose usage and fantasy value is trending up or down?
Is it just me, or is fantasy football even more fun when chaos is the norm? It's all about being proactive, and the best way to stay ahead of the curve is by being the first to identify changes in playing time. When the dust settles, regardless of format or flavor, touches, targets, and opportunities rule the day.
Talent mostly be darned (especially at a position like RB), opportunities have always been and will continue to reign supreme as the driving commodity. Players can't score fantasy points if they don't see the field. Then, of course, there's a matter of quality. Stay cognizant of players' touch per snap rates, so as not to fall into the trap of starting someone based on name only. I hate admitting how many times I'm guilty of it.
Anyway, there's something so pure about analyzing playing time. These very same lying coordinators, coaches, and owners are suddenly left with no choice but to show their cards via player deployment once the whistle blows -- and that's where we come in. Every week, I'll be right here at RotoBaller, breaking down the weekend's most impactful changes in utilization and what it means to fantasy gamers going forward. As hard as it is to believe when you're losing, it's still anyone's game through six weeks. With that, the weeks will keep flying by, and every move should be geared toward the future.
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Usage Bumps I'm Buying
Josh Downs, WR - Indianapolis Colts
Five weeks into the season without a top-35 positional finish (and just about that time to abandon preseason priors for current data), Josh Downs goes and restores my faith in his rest-of-season outcome. Woohoo!
Pegged by yours truly as the Colts' second-best WR at worst coming into 2025, you'd never know it from the part-time play or ~16% team target share through the season's first month. Perhaps a case of recovering from a hamstring injury suffered in August during training camp, whatever it is, Downs finally arrived.
HC Shane Steichen continually increased Downs' utilization back toward a full-time complement of snaps to unsurprising results. Over the last two weeks, he has more targets (15) and receptions (12) than Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce combined. Speaking of usage, to be fair, Downs still missed out on some 2-WR sets since the shift -- but the Colts' intentions ring clear when he's out there (34.9% target/route, 24.6% team target share, 2.21 yards gained/route). Get Downs the ball.
It's a @Colts TD! Josh Downs ties it up.
AZvsIND on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/Zopk6l6p8k
— NFL (@NFL) October 12, 2025
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB - Washington Commanders
Draft capital's not everything -- but maybe we should have known rostering a seventh-round rookie and mostly unknown commodity would mean preparing for a weekly fantasy roller coaster. And that's exactly what RB "Bill" Croskey-Merritt drafters experienced thus far -- the explosive former Arizona Wildcat continues adding to a lion's share of backfield touches despite mixed results.
As far as Monday night's flop against an otherwise poor Bears run defense goes, there's no other way to frame it; 3.6 yards/carry, -0.45 EPA/attempt, and zero explosive rushes ... stinks. However, a few key factors convinced me toward classifying it as a bump in the road and a potential buy-low opportunity. For starters, prospect growth's not linear -- post-bye rookie bumps are a real thing for a reason. Then, it's the confidence of the Washington staff to stake Croskey-Merritt a whopping 78%+ RB touch share in a huge prime-time spot.
Please don't buy the social media sky falling over his second "fumble" on the Commanders' final drive -- the handoff was never secured in rough conditions. Jayden Daniels will tell you he played as much a part in the folly, which leads directly to my last point. Croskey-Merritt's success, namely Week 5's statement breakout (14-111-2; 2-39-0), all happened with Daniels under center. That coexistence means more than anything else to me. Buy the dip yesterday.
Bill Croskey-Merritt keeps getting yards
WASvsLAC on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/j0gXwwNO6n
— NFL (@NFL) October 5, 2025
Kameron Johnson and Tez Johnson, WR - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Someone probably beat me to this one already, but who doesn't love a good Johnson and Johnson pun? Baker Mayfield is playing out of his mind while elevating every Buccaneers pass-catcher in sight. Tampa lost another top-tier wideout when rookie phenom Emeka Egbuka went down, which, of course, didn't stop Mayfield from completing seven of eight passes for 123 yards and a TD after his exit. Little off topic, but he's my MVP as of today.
The theory of next man up took full effect as the Johnson boys both stepped into every-down roles, with veteran Sterling Shepard serving as the WR3 in 11 personnel only. Everyone remembers rookie Tez Johnson's highlight-reel TD (below), which seems to be reflected in projected demand entering this week's waiver run.
Always the contrarian, I prefer second-year UDFA Kameron Johnson -- who led the team in second-half targets (three) and receptions (three). Playing a little closer to the line of scrimmage could transform him into Tampa's new volume wideout and an instant WR2 while the starters remain sidelined.
TEZ JOHNSON TD! WHAT A CATCH AND WHAT A FLIP
SFvsTB on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/UtKZZW6YXw
— NFL (@NFL) October 12, 2025
Noteworthy Usage Downturn
Tony Pollard, RB - Tennessee Titans
Promised the RotoBaller brass zero cursing when I got hired, but man, watching these Titans is pushing me to the edge. Maybe it's because I stepped on the powder-blue rake, wishing for just average play from them, but there's nothing of redeeming value going on in the Music City. Will terminating HC Brian Callahan light a fire under Tennessee? I highly doubt it...
Part of the theory behind drafting Tony Pollard revolved around soaking up a vast majority of the touches while backup Tyjae Spears recovered from an ankle sprain. Well, I got the first part right at least. The thing is, players also need to produce, which we didn't get from Pollard, who's still waiting for his first RB1 finish. Sadly, Spears' ability in the pass game, combined with constant negative game scripts, could be the final nail in Pollard's 2025 fantasy coffin.
None of that even mentions the brightest red flag of all. In just his second game back from IR, Spears actually outsnapped Pollard 35 to 25. Uh oh. I guess there's a plane of the multiverse somewhere in which Tennessee's considered a bargain -- but with three more weeks until its bye and tough competition on the horizon (vs. NE, at IND, vs. LAC), it could get much, much worse before improving. Right now, it's just a race with the Jets to the bottom for the league's worst offense.
Asked A.I. what Tony Pollard's fantasy managers' worst nightmare would look like...
Techs not always perfect but this sums it up pretty well#TitanUp pic.twitter.com/t6l84nHgBP
— John Laghezza MLB / NFL Moving Averages (@JohnLaghezza) October 14, 2025
Honorable Mentions - Flex Usage On The Rise
- Zach Charbonnet, RB, SEA
- Jack Bech, WR, LV
- Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC
- Isaiah Bond, WR, CLE
- Tyjae Spears, RB, TEN
- Josh Reynolds, WR, NYJ
- Chimere Dike, WR, TEN
- Justice Hill, RB, BAL
- Jordan Whittington, WR, LAR
- Andrei Iosivas, WR, CIN
- Bam Knight, RB, ARI
- Tyrell Shavers, WR, BUF
- Samaje Perine, RB, CIN
- Greg Dortch, WR, ARI
Honorable Mentions - Flex Usage Trending Down
- Chase Brown, RB, CIN
- Kenneth Walker III, RB, SEA
- Michael Carter, RB, ARI
- Bhayshul Tuten, RB, JAX
- Jaydon Blue, RB, DAL
- Raheem Mostert, RB, LV
- Isaiah Davis, RB, NYJ
- Dylan Sampson, RB, CLE
- Demarcus Robinson, WR, SF
- Emari Demercado, RB, ARI
- Brycen Tremayne, WR, CAR
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