RADIO
Dan's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 5 of 2025. He looks at potential warning signals from Isiah Pacheco, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Demarcus Robinson, Khalil Shakir, and Hunter Henry.
Another week of fantasy football is in the books, and the next one is getting underway, so it is time to assess options and get those lineups set for Week 5. Determining which of your players might be set up for a bust week is an important first step in deciding who will start in a given week. Each week, my Warning Signals column takes a look at a handful of players set up to underperform and potentially wreck your chances at winning your matchup.
For my Week 5 picks, I start by casting doubts on Isiah Pacheco’s prospects to pick things up. I also rain on the Jacory Croskey-Merritt parade this week as “Bill” is facing a stingy Chargers run defense. In wide receiver territory, I cast doubts on Demarcus Robinson’s utility on a Thursday night and the likelihood of Khalil Shakir scoring for a third game in a row. On the other side of that matchup, on a similar hot streak, I’m leaving Hunter Henry on the bench against the Bills.
With bye weeks now in play, it is going to start getting harder to find ways to fill out starting lineups. Still, you can’t ignore the signs pointing to down weeks. Keep your options open and an eye on those warning signals, and you will be headed on the path to a win in Week 5.
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Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Four games still might feel like too small a sample size to judge rest-of-season production, but we are at a point where we need to trust what teams are showing us, and what the Chiefs are showing us is that Pacheco is not their bellcow. What Pacheco himself is showing us is that he is simply not an effective running back.
Through four games, Pacheco has yet to log even a 50-yard game, maxing out at 45 rushing yards in Week 3, nor has he had more than 10 rushing attempts to date. His hold on the top of Kansas City’s depth chart seems to be in doubt. In Week 4, Kareem Hunt overtook Pacheco in snap share, and rookie Brashard Smith took a significant leap forward as Pacheco slid back.
#Chiefs Week 4 RB Usage
- Kareem Hunt: 44% snaps, 13 carries, 13 routes, 1 target (47 yds)
- Isiah Pacheco: 37% snaps, 7 carries, 15 routes, 3 targets (48 yds, TD)
- Brashard Smith: 26% snaps, 4 carries, 7 routes, 4 targets (36 yds)— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 29, 2025
Pacheco did catch a touchdown pass in Week 4 for his first score of the season, but Hunt holds the advantage in red zone snaps, reducing Pacheco’s opportunities to score. The Chiefs travel to Jacksonville in Week 5, and Pacheco will face a Jaguars defense offering up just 3.49 yards per carry to opposing running backs (sixth-best in the NFL). Pacheco might break free of the committee down the line, but this is not the week to be hopeful for a turnaround.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, Washington Commanders
Croskey-Merritt shot up fantasy draft boards after an 11-carry, 46-yard performance in the second week of the preseason. Croskey-Merritt’s 27-yard scamper for a touchdown on his second attempt of the game impressed viewers and got fantasy football managers thinking about what he might be capable of if given a shot in the Commanders’ backfield. They really got thinking when Brian Robinson Jr. was traded to the 49ers.
Washington didn’t immediately anoint Croskey-Merritt their new starter (that honor went to Austin Ekeler in Week 1), but he did lead the team in rushing attempts and yards in their season opener, finishing with an impressive 10-82-1 line in his regular-season debut. Since then, though, he has averaged just 30 rushing yards per game and hasn’t been able to pull away from the rest of the backfield, even in the wake of Ekeler’s season-ending Achilles injury.
In Week 5, the Commanders face a Chargers run defense that is allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, and has given up just one touchdown and the sixth-fewest rushing yards to the position in the league. Starting quarterback Jayden Daniels is expected to return to action this week, representing another member of the Commanders' backfield (along with Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez Jr.) who will take a bite out of Croskey-Merritt’s potential opportunities.
Demarcus Robinson, WR, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers play in the Thursday night opener of Week 5, leaving a scant amount of time between the time this column publishes and game time. This entry is dedicated to those of you toying with the idea of starting Demarcus Robinson, with Ricky Pearsall (knee) and Jauan Jennings (ribs/ankle) out. I encourage you to pump the brakes before rolling Robinson out there in the first game of a fresh week.
Robinson made his 2025 debut in Week 4 following a three-game suspension. San Francisco broke him in slowly, running him out on just 25% of snaps, and the receiver got just one catch for 20 yards on two targets. That was with a (mostly) healthy Pearsall and Jennings, of course, but it is also a result of Robinson needing to get his feet under him after missing time with the team for the first three weeks of the regular season. It is safe to assume that his workload will grow, but I expect him to rotate out regularly with Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore.
Brock Purdy (toe) will also be absent on Thursday night, giving way to another spot start by Mac Jones. Jones was competent in his previous starts in Purdy’s stead, but the focus of the offense will be directed at running back Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey’s 43 targets lead the team and rank second in the NFL as a whole, behind only Puka Nacua. Maybe if this were a typical Sunday game, I could summon the courage to employ Robinson as a flex, but on a Thursday, he will have to be used in a dedicated WR slot, which could have damaging consequences once the main slate of games finally arrives.
Kendrick Bourne, Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Demarcus Robinson are the only other receivers to run routes for the 49ers. Gonna be ugly.
Christian McCaffrey might have 20 targets. https://t.co/skBX4Km131 pic.twitter.com/hKkbrcxpDr
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) October 1, 2025
Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills
Shakir scored his second touchdown in as many weeks last Sunday, but I have my doubts that a third one is coming in Week 5 against the Patriots. In five career games against New England, Shakir has averaged 2.4 receptions and 26.8 yards per game and has failed to find the end zone. His most productive game to date came on New Year’s Eve in 2023, when he logged four catches for 39 yards.
Shakir has been a preferred target for quarterback Josh Allen, ranking second on the Bills in targets, receptions, and yards. However, in Buffalo’s run-heavy offense, Shakir’s averages in those categories are modest - five targets, four receptions, and 47.5 yards per game.
New England’s defense has been fairly accommodating to opposing wide receivers this season, but they are mostly getting beaten out wide. The Patriots have given up 200 more yards to receivers lined up outside than to those in the slot on five more receptions. Two-thirds of opposing wide receivers’ fantasy points go to those out wide. Shakir is a talent, and one I’ll bet on again down the line, but I think he disappears against New England once again in Week 5.
Khalil Shakir puts on the moves for a 43-yard TD!
NOvsBUF on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXnxV pic.twitter.com/9MamPqDeHg
— NFL (@NFL) September 28, 2025
Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots
On the other offense of the Bill-Patriots matchup is Hunter Henry, who has been on a heater of his own, scoring three touchdowns over the last two weeks. I can’t put too much trust into Henry in Week 5, though, as his utilization is all over the place. Through four weeks, Henry has eight, three, eleven, and two targets. He’s scored as few as 1.9 PPR points to as many as 29. The 11.9 PPR points he logged last week are nothing to scoff at for a tight end, but when you realize Henry had just one other reception aside from his 31-yard touchdown catch against the Panthers, things look a little less certain.
Given his matchup in Week 5, his outlook is questionable at best. The Bills have put the clamps on tight ends in 2025, allowing just nine receptions and a league-best 67 yards to the position. From a fantasy perspective, Buffalo is giving up the second-fewest fantasy points per game (5.4). Juwan Johnson’s three-catch, 28-yard performance in Week 4 was the most production Buffalo has allowed to an opposing tight end to date in 2025. I’ll look elsewhere for a tight end in Week 5 and come back to Henry when he has a friendlier matchup.
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