Top Early-Season Pitching Standouts - Analyzing Hot Starts for Fantasy Baseball

April 22, 2025

Eric Cross breaks down four early-season pitching standouts after the first few weeks of the 2025 fantasy baseball season and discusses who to buy into moving forward in fantasy baseball leagues.

The early part of the Major League season is always one of the most exciting and chaotic times of the season. We receive a plethora of new data and metrics to sort through, along with breakouts galore, which has been the case so far this season.

Which pitchers added new pitches? Who is throwing harder? Who is breaking out and why? These are all questions we need to sift through with these early-season breakouts, and that's what I'll be focusing on today.

Below, I'll be discussing four pitchers who are off to red-hot starts to the season and subsequently rising up both redraft and dynasty rankings. What has changed for them? Is it sustainable? Should you be buying in or selling high?

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Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies

Cristopher Sánchez was a popular breakout pick this preseason, and he's performed even better than anyone expected so far. In his first four starts of the season, Sánchez has recorded an impressive 2.96 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and a 5.9 percent walk rate. But what has been the most impressive part so far is the 30.7 percent strikeout rate.

Sánchez has posted an ERA under 3.50 in each of the last two seasons, but a lackluster strikeout rate held him back and limited his value to some degree. Well, not anymore.

Sánchez has increased his strikeout rate from 20.3 percent in 2024 to 30.7 percent in 2025 through his first four starts. You can thank a 7.8 percent increase in his whiff rate for that. While Sánchez has always gotten hitters to chase at a high clip, his whiff rates have been below average until this season. It's still early, but Sánchez's slider has gone from a 30.3 percent whiff rate to a 35.5 percent whiff rate, and his changeup has jumped from 34.8 percent to a whopping 53.8 percent.

Cristopher Sánchez has 12 strikeouts today - a new career-high! pic.twitter.com/HJwdXpPJaV

— MLB (@MLB) April 17, 2025

Everything has been thrown harder for Sánchez this season. He's increased his velocity between 1.4 and 1.6 mph on all three of his pitches, and is also going to the changeup a little more than he did in 2025. That changeup has been nearly unhittable so far with a .129 BAA, .194 SLG, .190 wOBA, and the aforementioned 53.8 percent whiff rate.

All of this has gone on while Sánchez continues to generate groundballs at a high clip. Yes, the groundball rate is down to 51.6 percent, but that's still well above the Major League average.

I was a big believer in Sánchez before the season and firmly believe in the breakout so far. Maybe the strikeout rate ticks down slightly, but Sánchez looks like a Top-20 fantasy SP right now and is a strong hold/buy in all formats.

MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals

Alright, let's talk about the current Major League strikeout leader, MacKenzie Gore. In his first five starts of the season, Gore has racked up a ridiculous 45 strikeouts in just 29 innings with a 3.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. That's a 37.8 percent strikeout rate for all of you keeping track at home. Is this just another one of Gore's hot stretches? Or is there something more here?

My initial thought is a mix of both, leaning more towards the latter. Last season, 43.1 percent of Gore's 181 strikeouts came on his 4-seamer, which he threw 55.4 percent of the time overall. This season, only 24.4 percent of Gore's 45 strikeouts have come on the 4-seamer.

He's still throwing the pitch 51.3 percent of the time, but Gore is relying more on his secondaries as he gets deeper into the count. It certainly helps when you have a whiff rate above 40 percent on all four of your secondaries, including above 50 percent on his curveball and cutter.

Gore always had good whiff rates on most of his secondaries, but it's risen to new levels this season. Some of that can be attributed to Gore getting more drop on his curveball (2.7"), changeup (0.8"), and cutter (2.4").  He's been going to his secondaries more and more each season, and I'd love to see him incorporate them even more into his pitch mix and drop that 4-seamer down five to 10 percent.

The strikeouts are the area I'm believing in the most right now. Gore should be able to rank among the league's elite in strikeout rate moving forward, given his elite 36.1 percent whiff rate and ability to miss bats at a high clip with all four of his secondary offerings. He's also allowing 6.1 percent less contact within the zone while dropping his walk rate from 8.9 to 6.7 percent.

Given that he still gives up a decent amount of hard contact, a higher barrel rate, and plenty of contact in the air, Gore will probably still be somewhat inconsistent and never have elite ratios. But at this point, a 3.25-3.50 ERA and WHIP around 1.20 could make him a Top-20 starter given the elite strikeout numbers. The peaks should also be more prominent and consistent than the valleys. He's a strong buy in all formats right now.

Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals

After a successful 2024 season in the Royals' bullpen, Kris Bubic transitioned back to the rotation this season. I'll admit, I was a bit skeptical of the move, but Bubic has pitched very well through his first four starts. In 24 innings so far, Bubic has posted a 1.88 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.7 percent walk rate, and a 26.2 percent strikeout rate.

When transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation or vice versa, you often see a pitcher's arsenal shift quite a bit. However, the only notable change for Bubic has been an increase in sliders and a decrease in sweepers this season, with nearly identical usage rates on his 4-seamer and changeup.

Kris Bubic's 7th and 8th Ks.

Thru 5 pic.twitter.com/krl9yoAMM8

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 9, 2023

Since he only averages 92.2 mph with his 4-seamer, it's important for Bubic to locate well, and he's done well commanding the fastball and changeup, especially this season. He's hung the sweeper more than you'd like to see, but it hasn't come back to bite him yet as he has a .200 BAA and .267 SLG on the offering so far. Overall, Bubic has a whiff rate above 34 percent on three pitches and has only allowed five extra-base hits total in his three starts.

With what we've seen so far, it's hard to say that Bubic's start has been fluky. There's a lot of good in the profile, but he's not this good. Bubic currently has a 3.52 xERA, 3.43 xFIP, and a 3.44 SIERA. That's more where he'll likely settle into, in my eyes. But even with a mid-three ERA and an above-average strikeout rate, Bubic could hold Top-50 SP value moving forward.

Max Meyer, Miami Marlins

After what he did last night and the start he's had to the 2025 season, Max Meyer was an easy inclusion in an article like this. Meyer had the best start of his career on Monday night, striking out 14 over six shutout innings with a whopping 24 whiffs. Of those 24 whiffs, 16 came on his slider. Thanks to this gem, Meyer now has a 2.10 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 5.8 percent walk rate, and a 33.9 percent strikeout rate through his first five starts.

Is this sustainable, though? Meyer had the prospect pedigree as a former Top 5-10 pitching prospect a few years ago, but his fantasy value was depleted over the last two to three years due to poor performance and time spent on the IL. Because of all that, it'd be fair to be skeptical or pessimistic when it comes to believing in a Meyer breakout right now.

Meyer is still a slider-heavy pitcher who has thrown the pitch 41.2 percent of the time this season. It's easily his best offering with a .103 BAA, .121 SLG, and a 53.5 percent whiff rate. But after the slider, we've seen some changes in Meyer's arsenal this season.

Meyer has decreased his 4-seamer usage by 18.9 percent while throwing more sinkers and sweepers. Given that the sinker and sweeper combined for a two percent usage rate in 2024, Meyer has essentially transformed from a 3-pitch arm to a 5-pitch arm this season. The sweeper hasn't fared well so far, but the sinker has yet to allow an extra-base hit and has helped Meyer increase his groundball rate from 50.6 to 56.9 percent.

When it comes to believing in Meyer's breakout, I'd say I'm a seven on a scale of one to 10. There are tangible changes and improvements that have taken place, which have encouraged me right now. But there are still a few areas of concern. Meyer still gets hit hard in general with a 94 mph AVG EV and 45.8 percent hard-hit rate allowed, and he's very reliant on his slider in two-strike counts, with 80.4 percent of his 41 strikeouts coming on the pitch.

Meyer's 4-seamer has also been atrocious this season with a .391 BAA, .696 SLG, and .489 wOBA allowed. This makes me wonder if he'll go more sinker-heavy moving forward.

I'm mostly buying the Meyer breakout and believe he can be a Top-40 fantasy SP moving forward, but I don't think he'll ascend to Top-25 or ace status.

If you enjoyed this article and want to see Eric’s rankings, analysis, and more, check out Eric's Toolshed Fantasy Patreon.

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