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2025 NCAA Tournament bracket picks and team predictions for the Midwest Region. Read Mike's March Madness picks, sleepers, and busts including teams to target and avoid and how far each team can go.
The stage is set for the 2025 NCAA Tournament. We start with a play-in appetizer, followed by the greatest weekend in sports. 48 games in four days. A field whittled down to 16 teams from 64. There is nothing on earth like it, and we here at RotoBaller will be with you every step of the way.
This may be the toughest region of the four. There are at least four teams capable of making a deep tournament run. There are also a couple of rough seedings in here.
Once you're done here, be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis, including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and guides on how to fill out your bracket, including other predictions for the South, Midwest, and West regions.
Midwest Region Favorites
(1) Houston (30-4)
22 wins and 1 loss in league games. And the loss was in overtime. All hail the Houston Cougars, the undisputed kings of the Big 12. They are as dangerous as they are likable - gritty, tough, and so good at finding ways to win. Well deserved!
— Rock Chalk Blog (@RockChalkBlog) March 16, 2025
The Cougars lost just one game in conference play. They closed the season 26-1 after starting 4-3. Oklahoma transfer Milos Uzan learning how to play the point added another dimension to this team. Not only is Houston a great defensive team again, but they scored 74.2 points per game.
(2) Tennessee (27-7)
The Vols don't have Dalton Knecht this year, but they are arguably a better team and are definitely better defensively. A core group of veteran guards leads this team. Ohio State transfer Felix Okpara is what Tennessee thought Tobe Awaka would be in 2024.
(3) Kentucky (22-11)
Kentucky is fifth in the country in scoring and beat Tennessee twice. They also got blown off the court by Alabama in Nashville, so I'm surprised at this seeding. This is an exciting team to watch when they are at their best.
(4) Purdue (22-11)
Purdue wasn't a dominant team without Lurch (Zach Edey), but a star was born in Braden Smith. The inside-outside duo of Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn was good for Purdue. The bad? Purdue lost six of their last nine games.
Midwest Region Fatal Flaws
All teams have one or two things that could keep them from reaching their full potential. Here, we will run the gamut of the main things that will hold teams in this region back.
Houston: For as good as Houston is in most aspects of the game, this team does not move the ball well in half-court sets. They have improved since earlier in the season, with Uzan now being the full-time point guard, but that's still a problem that some teams in this region can exploit.
Tennessee: Tennessee might be the best defensive team in the country, but they still have a negative turnover differential. They can have problems with teams that pace them up (Florida and Kentucky are good examples).
Kentucky: This is not a good defensive team. Some of that is a product of Kentucky wanting to play fast, but that sometimes results in turnovers and poor shots. Good three-point shooting masks a lot of issues.
Purdue: Historically, teams that stumble into the tournament often exit early. Purdue went from one of the best rebounding teams last year to one of the worst this year. Purdue only averaged 32.4 rebounds per game. That's 319th in the country.
Clemson: The Tigers turn the ball over too much. They are -2.9 in turnover differential on the season.
Illinois: Poor shooting. Illinois scores a lot of points, but they are in the mid-200s in field goal percentage and are 322nd in three-point shooting at just 31.1 percent.
UCLA: Rebounding. UCLA only averaged 32.7 rebounds per game. That was 314th in the country.
Gonzaga: Rim protection. That's the only thing Gonzaga doesn't do well. They are in the top five in the country in points, assists, and rebounds.
Midwest Region Ceilings
We know the floor of every team, right? They can all lose in the first round. The top overall seed, Virginia, lost on the first day of the tournament in 2017. In this section, we'll explore the realistic ceiling of every team in the bracket.
Houston: The Cougars have only lost once since November and that was in overtime. The Big 12 (16) was the second or third-toughest conference in the nation, depending on who you talk to. This team could cut down the nets in San Antonio.
Tennessee: The Vols can't be happy with this draw. The only team that they couldn't handle this year was Kentucky. Guess who is on their side of the bracket? The Vols are going to be cheering hard for Troy or Illinois. If it's anyone other than Kentucky, Tennessee can make the Final Four.
Kentucky: Illinois is a mirror image of Kentucky, with more size in the middle. This isn't a great draw for the Wildcats. If they get past Illinois, a regional final is possible.
Purdue: High Point is not a great first-round game for Purdue and Clemson is a disaster of a second-round game. They won't make it out of Providence.
Clemson: This is a good pod for Clemson if they survive the first round. I don't see them beating Houston, though.
Illinois: The Illini can't be disappointed with this draw. They match up well with Texas and Kentucky and would have a puncher's chance at Tennessee.
UCLA: This is a bad draw for the Bruins. They'll lose in the first round.
Gonzaga: The Bulldogs are eighth in the NET rankings yet get an eight-seed. This is a dangerous Gonzaga team. They may have the best shot of any team, aside from Tennessee, of taking down Houston.
Georgia: This is a bad draw for the Bulldogs. They don't have the size to tangle with Graham Ike and Ben Gregg on the inside.
Utah State: The Aggies couldn't have asked for a better first-round opponent. They couldn't have asked for a worse second-round one. It's one-and-done for the Aggies.
Texas/Xavier: Xavier is 45th in the NET rankings and went 1-9 in Quad 1 games. The win over Creighton likely got them here, but maybe it shouldn't have. Indiana and West Virginia had better metrics than both of these teams.
There's always one 11-seed that demolishes a bracket. Texas has that potential this year and got the draw to do it. Tennessee would likely stop the run in the regional semifinals. If Xavier wins this, they don't match up well with Illinois at all.
McNeese: This is the type of team that could pull an upset. McNeese is a good shooting team and a good rebounding team. I don't like the draw, but they are going to put a scare into Clemson.
High Point: This team scores a ton of points and is strong on the boards. Purdue is neither. I like the Panthers to win at least one game. Beating Clemson, while unlikely, isn't out of the question. High Point has a Sweet Sixteen ceiling.
Troy: Troy has a do-everything guard in Tayton Conerway, but they don't score enough or shoot well enough to beat a team like Kentucky.
Wofford: The Terriers finished sixth in the Southern Conference. They couldn't even beat Tennessee's second team...
SIU-Edwardsville: It will be an experience, but probably not a good one for the Cougars...the SIU Cougars.
Most Intriguing First-Round Matchup
(4) Purdue vs. (13) High Point
Purdue is built like a mid-major this year. They have almost no size in the middle. The team is run by a great guard in Smith and a good secondary player in Kaufman-Renn. High Point has less talent, but they shoot and rebound well enough to hang around, if not win this outright.
Bust of the Midwest Region
Purdue. They got a bad draw and have lost six of nine heading into the tournament.
Dark Horse Play
High Point is the easy pick, but Gonzaga could be the one that makes the most noise. The Bulldogs are one of the most underseeded teams in the tournament and have a solid chance to beat Houston. Gonzaga beat the San Diego State team, which beat Houston by 13 points.
West Regional Picks
First round: Houston, Gonzaga, Clemson, High Point, Illinois, Kentucky, Utah State, Tennessee
Second round: Houston, Clemson, Illinois, Tennessee
Regional semifinal: Houston, Tennessee
Regional champion: Tennessee. The Volunteers are built exactly like Houston, but I trust the veteran guards of Tennessee more in this one.
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