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Jake's 2025 starting pitcher fantasy baseball sleepers, later-round targets based on ADP. These are fantasy baseball SP value picks going after pick 100 in drafts.
Whether you love it or hate it, the role of the starting pitcher in baseball is changing. No longer are pitchers measured by numbers like how many pitches they can throw, but are rather measured through advanced analytics and metrics. This shift has resulted in many more challenges as well as many more opportunities for us fantasy baseball enthusiasts.
No matter how you approach drafting pitchers, finding late-round starters who can outperform their ADP is a real game-changer. These under-the-radar picks often make the biggest difference in securing a fantasy championship. To give you an edge, I am highlighting five starting pitchers with current fantasy baseball ADPs between the range of 100-250 (all ADPs are used from NFBC).
Remember, for all your other preseason fantasy baseball needs, make sure to follow RotoBaller on X. Now, without further ado, let’s dive into five late-round starting pitchers who are ready to outperform their draft position.
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Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates
Due to the call-up and immediate breakout of phenom pitcher Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, who also made his MLB debut last season, was overlooked in many fantasy leagues. Although he wasn’t as dominant as Skenes, Jones still had a very good rookie season and has plenty to build on heading into 2025. His ADP currently sits at 142.4.
In 22 starts last year (121 2/3 IP), Jones pitched to a 4.14 ERA, a 4.00 FIP, a 1.19 WHIP, and a K% of 26.2 percent. Those numbers are solid, and on top of that, his xERA (4.05) and xFIP (3.78) were lower than his actual ERA and FIP, suggesting that he pitched even better than what we all saw.
The biggest thing that Jones has going for him is his powerful arm, and he can utilize that to create a ton of swing-and-miss. Jones ranked in the 93rd percentile last season in average fastball velocity (97.3) and the 84th percentile in Whiff% (30.4 percent).
That, combined with his track record of absurd strikeout numbers throughout the minor leagues, really shows the potential that Jones has to be a high-value fantasy player (especially in dynasty leagues or, of course, leagues that value strikeouts highly).
2024 PitchingNinja Sword of the Year. ⚔️🏆
Winner: Jared Jones pic.twitter.com/eSN1iQxS97
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) November 16, 2024
Fantasy managers should seriously consider taking Jones three to six picks (at least) before his ADP. He has so much upside, and he and Skenes have the potential to be one of the best one-two punches in the majors for years to come.
Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
After spending the entire 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery (UCL), Miami Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara is healthy and poised to return to full strength heading into 2025. A dominant force in 2022, Alcantara earned the National League Cy Young Award after leading the majors in innings pitched (228 2/3) while finishing fifth in ERA (2.28) and ninth in WHIP (0.98).
However, Alcantara regressed in 2023 despite remaining effective. He logged 184 2/3 innings with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP -- numbers below his usual standards. Fatigue may have been a factor, as he pitched over 200 innings in 2021 and 2022. Nonetheless, looking forward to 2025, Alcantara’s ADP sits at 166.4.
It is worth noting that even during Alcantara’s "down" year in 2023, the advanced metrics still supported him. He ranked in the 80th percentile of qualified starters in BB% (6.3 percent), the 87th percentile in GB% (51.9 percent), and the 97th percentile in Chase% (34.8 percent).
Alcantara's injury and fatigue do not strike me as something that will impact his 2025 season. By late 2024, Alcantara was already facing live hitters and looked like his old self. His fastball touched 99 mph, and his command appeared sharp, showing his pre-injury dominance.
With a full year to rest, recover, and regroup, Alcantara could be primed for another standout campaign reminiscent of his Cy Young season. Fantasy managers should monitor Alcantara as early as pick 140 in their upcoming fantasy drafts.
It's been a rough week.
Treat yourself to a few pitches from sleeveless Sandy Alcantara. You deserve it. pic.twitter.com/NhT9i1vLUM
— Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) December 11, 2024
Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks
Brandon Pfaadt found himself a comfortable spot in the middle of 2023 at the back of the Arizona Diamondbacks rotation. Since being called up, he has appeared in 51 games (50 starts) and has pitched to a 5.06 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 9.04 K/9 in 277 2/3 IP.
Entering the 2025 season after signing arguably the best free-agent pitcher available in Corbin Burnes, Pfaadt again finds himself near the end of the D-backs’ starting depth chart, competing for the fourth/fifth spot in the rotation with Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery. Due to this competition and the uncertainty that Pfaadt will start 30+ games is likely why his ADP is so deflated at 182.5.
There are a couple of reasons why Pfaadt is not only a (much) better fantasy option than Montgomery and Rodriguez but also better than his numbers suggest. Firstly, since originally being called up in 2023, Pfaadt has always been available and healthy, having never missed a start.
On top of that, Pfaadt's high ERA through his first two seasons can somewhat be attributed to bad luck. While his ERA was 4.71 in 2024, his xERA was 3.78. And, while his career ERA is 5.06, his career FIP is 4.15. These numbers state that Pfaadt is a much better pitcher than his numbers suggest and has been a victim of unlucky bloops and fielding mishaps. This also means he is due for some luck to favor him now.
Pfaadt's pitching arsenal is highlighted by his four-seam fastball and sinker, both of which are very effective, particularly against righties. Last season, Pfaadt had a GB% of 41.5 percent.
Pfaadt’s skill and potential to get outs and rack up innings, wins, and quality starts are underrated. There is strong evidence to support that Pfaadt is significantly undervalued and will surprise many people by the end of the year. Mark my words: Brandon Pfaadt will take the fourth starter spot in the rotation to start the season and run with it.
Nick Pivetta, Free Agent
Nick Pivetta, now an eight-year MLB veteran, has quietly had a successful career up until this point. It wasn’t until 2023 that he found his groove, as he had the lowest ERA (4.04) and highest K/9 (11.54) of his career that year. In 2024, his stats were similar, as he posted a 4.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 10.63 K/9 in 145 2/3 IP.
Because of all the young, hard-throwing righties who have entered the majors in recent years, players like Pivetta have been getting slept on as of late. That, along with the fact that Pivetta is currently not on a major league team, has resulted in his ADP sitting low at 200.2.
In 2024, Pivetta ranked in the 70th percentile of qualified starters in xERA (3.51) and xBA (.221) and the 80th percentile in K%(28.9) and BB% (6.1 percent). All those numbers, combined with the fact that Pivetta has consistently been healthy/available (more than 140 IP in each of his last four seasons), make for a solid fantasy arm.
Pivetta has most recently been linked to the Los Angeles Angels, a team desperately needing some pitching depth. If he signs with them or a comparable rebuilding team, he will likely be one of said team's featured starters. Keep an eye out for what team Pivetta signs with, and consider drafting him accordingly.
MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals
Formerly one of the best prospects in all of baseball, MacKenzie Gore has found himself a nice spot as the Washington Nationals’ No. 1 starter.
Although he hasn’t lived up to his reputation, as he was the third overall MLB Draft pick in 2017, Gore’s numbers have consistently been good since being called up to the majors in 2022. In 75 games (72 starts), Gore has pitched to a 4.20 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and a 9.76 K/9 in 372 2/3 IP. Heading into 2025, Gore finds himself with an ADP of 207.2.
⚾ 2025 Player Profile ⚾
MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals
- Allowed less hard contact in 2024
- Can he jump up rankings in 2025?
- 2025 Projections, Dynasty Value, & Long-Term Outlook#FantasyBaseballhttps://t.co/89fGcd97T4— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) January 6, 2025
Every year that Gore has been in the majors, he has improved. Last season was undoubtedly his best, as he had a career-low in IP (166 1/3), ERA (3.90), xERA (4.20), FIP (3.53), xFIP (3.87), and BB% (8.9).
Gore’s fastball velocity was also a career-high last year, averaging 96.0 mph (the average amongst left-handed pitchers was 93.2 mph). His Whiff% was also by far the best of his career, coming in at 28.6 percent. Gore’s hard fastball, mixed with his four offspeed pitches (curve, slider, change, sweeper), will continue to make for a seriously effective combo.
Gore ended 2024 incredibly strong, pitching to a 1.26 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and 35 K in 28 2/3 IP in his final five starts of the season. I expect Gore to take that momentum into 2025 and increase his fantasy value even more as he enters his age-26 season. There is plenty of value in selecting Gore slightly ahead of pick 207.
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